【摘要】 针对钦州市水资源开发利用现状及供需不平衡的问题,阐述了三次平衡分析原则及计算原理,采用基于用水效率约束下的水资源三次供需平衡方法,分析钦州市2020年、2030年3种保证率下区域供需平衡态势,并结合用水总量红线,提出未来钦州市社会经济可持续发展的水资源利用对策。三次平衡后的结果表明:2020年钦州市50%、75%、95%保证率下缺水0.04、2.60、8.29亿m3; 2030年建成调水工程后,50%、75%保证率下钦州市有余水3.10、0.33亿m3,P=95%下缺水5.93亿m3。要完全达到总量红线控制目标和实现水量的综合平衡,应进一步推进钦州市节水型城市建设力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the present situation of water resources utilization and the imbalance between supply and demand in Qinzhou,the principle and calculation principle of the third balance theory analysis method are expounded. The three supply and demand balance methods based on water resources are used to analyze the three guarantees of Qinzhou City in 2020 and 2030. Adopting the three-times allocation method based on water use efficiency,this paper analyzes the regional water supply and demand situation of Qinzhou City at three guarantee rates in 2020 and 2030,and combining the water consumption red line,proposes the countermeasures for water resources utilization in the future social and economic development of Qinzhou. The results after three balances show that: in 2020,50%,75%,and 95% of the guarantee rate in Qinzhou City will be 0. 04,2. 60,and 829 million m3 of water shortage. After the water transfer project is completed in2030,the guarantee rate will be 50% and 75%. There are residual water 3.10,0.33 million m3,P= 95% water shortage 593 million m3. To fully achieve the overall red line control objectives and achieve a comprehensive balance of water volume,we should further promote the construction of water-saving cities in Qinzhou.更多还原