【摘要】 文章在全面分析总结全球钴消费结构及消费历史规律的基础上,将部门消费预测法和情景分析法相结运用,合初步判断未来中国钴需求发展趋势。结果显示:2025年中国钴需求量可能达到11.1万吨,其中锂电池领域需求8.1万吨。目前国内钴矿90%的原料依赖进口,钴资源缺口为5.4万吨,原料缺口达6.8万吨,未来随着需求增长,缺口还将增加。当前海外权益钴矿产量3万吨,仍达不到我国钴需求水平,而且海外权益产量中88%来自刚果(金)一个国家,境外钴矿来源缺乏稳定性和可持续性,安全保障度低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the comprehensive analysis of global cobalt consumption structure and consumption history, the paper combines departmental consumption forecasting method with scenario analysis method to make a preliminary judgment for the future development trend of cobalt demand in China. The results show that China’s cobalt demand may reach 111,000 tons in 2025, including 81,000 tons cobalt are demanded in the lithium battery field. At present, 90% of the raw materials of domestic cobalt mineral depend on imports. The shortage of cobalt resources is 54,000 tons, and the shortage of raw materials is 68,000 tons. With the growth of demand, the shortage will increase as well in the future. The current output of overseas cobalt mine is 30,000 tons, which still can not reach the level of cobalt demand in China. And 88% of the output of overseas cobalt mine comes from Congo(DRC), overseas cobalt mine sources lack stability and sustainability, and the reliability and security are low.更多还原