【摘要】 为提高资源约束条件下地震灾害应急管理能力(EDEMA)建设投资决策的科学性和有效性,以应急管理"全过程"理论为基础,确定各个阶段的能力构成要素,基于层次分析法(AHP),计算指标相对权重。依据EDEMA建设规律,基于系统动力学(SD)原理,利用Vensim软件构建EDEMA建设因果关系图和流图,并对假设的5种不同投资分配方案进行仿真分析。结果表明,最优投资分配系数在全面缩减阶段、应急预备阶段、救援反应阶段、恢复重建阶段依次递减,与应急管理"预防为主,避免事后处理问题"的理念相契合;投资优化有助于明显节约投资,提前降低投资压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 To improve scientificalness and effectiveness of investment decision for EDEMA construction under the condition of resource constraints,firstly,based on the " whole process theory" in emergency management and according to the required ability to defend earthquake disaster,indexes for EDEMA were confirmed. Based on AHP,relative weights of the indexes were calculated. Then,combining EDEMA construction investment rules with principles of SD,based on Vensim software,an EDEMA construction model was formed,including casual chart and flow chart. Also,five hypothetic investment distribution plans were simulated by using of the model. The results show that the optimal investment distribution coefficient values form a decreasing order: the one for the overall reduction stage,the one for emergency readiness stage,the one for rescue and response stage,and the one for recovery and reconstruction stage,which agrees with the idea of highlighting earlier action and avoiding afterwards treatment during emergency management,and that investment optimization is helpful in saving evidently resources and reducing investment pressure in advance.更多还原