【摘要】 针对传统可靠度及坝体安全系数计算方法存在的两个方面的不足:①实际工程中不可能给出设计变量精确的均值,而且这些均值在很大程度上受到许多客观因素或人为作用的影响,这些影响程度具有较大的模糊性;②传统的可靠度理论以Z=0作为度量坝体是否失效的界限,在零点两侧,结构的失效和安全状态是以突变形式转化的,但坝体从安全到破坏很难用明确界限划分,在可靠与失效之间有一个中间过渡状态存在,是一个模糊范围。在解决以上两个问题的基础之上,首次将模糊可靠度理论应用到尾矿坝的稳定性研究中,既考虑尾矿坝破坏事件的模糊性,又考虑主要变量和参数的模糊性,将模糊性和随机性相结合,研究尾矿坝工程的模糊随机可靠度分析方法。工程实例计算表明:计算结果与实际情况吻合良好,较传统坝体安全系数计算方法更加科学合理,更能反映尾矿坝的真实状况,为尾矿坝稳定性的计算提供了一条新途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional dam reliability and the safety coefficient calculation methods have two aspects of deficiencies:on one hand,it is impossible to give the accurate mean values of practical engineering design variables,and these values are greatly affected by many objective factors or artificial action.The effects have great degree of ambiguity.On the other hand,the traditional reliability theory employs Z=0 as the dam failure criterion to define the states of structural failure and security.But the damage of the dam from the safety limits is difficult to define.The transitional state of existence between reliablility and failure is a fuzzy area.Based on the above two issues,the fuzzy theory was applied to the stability of the tailing dams considering both the fuzziness of tailing dam failure and the main variables and parameters.The fuzziness and the randomness of the tailing dam project were integrated.The case studies show that the results and the actual situation are in good agreement,and that the method proposed,more scientific and rational than the traditional calculation methods,reflects the real situation for the stability of the tailing dams and provides a new way to analyze the stability of the tailing dams.更多还原