【摘要】 以陕西省统计年鉴、西安市统计年鉴及土地利用变更数据为数据源,利用无偏GM(1,1)模型对2017～2025年西安市土地生态安全状况进行预测,并构建障碍度模型,分析影响西安市2017～2025年土地生态安全的障碍因素,为区域土地可持续利用、生态文明建设等提供政策依据。结果表明:西安市2017～2025年土地生态安全为较安全,土地生态安全状况会持续有所改善,但效果不够显著;影响西安市土地生态安全的主要障碍因素有人口密度、单位耕地面积化肥负荷、单位耕地面积农药负荷和后备土地资源率等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook, Xi’an Statistical Yearbook and land use change data as data sources, the unbiased GM(1,1) model used to predict the ecological security status of Xi’an in 2017～2025, and the obstacle model is constructed and analyzed. analyze the effect the obstacles of Xi’an City’s land ecological security in 2017～2025, and provide policy basis for the sustainable use of regional land and ecological civilization construction. The results showed that the ecological security of land in Xi’an is relatively safe during 2017～2025, and the ecological security of land will continue to improve, but the effect is not significant. The main obstacles affecting the ecological security of Xi’an are population density and fertilizer load per unit of cultivated land, the pesticide load per unit of cultivated land area and the reserve land resource rate.更多还原