【摘要】 寂静地震是指发生了缓慢的位错、但几乎不辐射地震波的“地震” .在目前的地震预测的物理学研究中 ,通常是通过计算历史上曾经发生过的地震所引起的应力变化 ,或者通过研究地震活动的统计性质或“图像动力学” ,来推测一个断层带上发生地震的危险性 .寂静地震的信息的缺失 ,形成了地震预测的物理学研究中的一个很大的“盲区” ,而在相当程度上 ,解决地震预测的物理问题的主要困难和可能的突破的希望 ,也许就在于此 .寂静地震的研究目前还很不深入 .关于寂静地震的性质 ,文章作者提出两个猜想 :(1)寂静地震的频度 ,满足类似于GR定律的幂律分布 ;(2 )最大的寂静地震的地震矩 ,与“可见”的最大地震的地震矩相当 .更多还原

【Abstract】 A silent earthquake refers to a slow slipping event which does not radiate seismic waves. In current earthquake prediction, seismic hazard is generally estimated through the stress change caused by previous earthquakes and/or deformation, or through the statistics or pattern dynamics of seismic activity. Lack of information about silent earthquakes has left a missing piece in the physics of earthquakes, but it is this very piece that may lead to a breakthrough in earthquake prediction. We review the latest developments in this area, and propose two conjectures on the properties of silent earthquakes: (1) The frequency-magnitude relation of silent earthquakes satisfies Gutenberg-Richter′s power law; and (2) The maximum silent earthquake has a seismic moment comparable to that of the maximum ‘visible’ earthquake.更多还原