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用门限自回归建模对山西地区地震活动进行预测
Using Fuzzy Mathematic Method to Predict the Earthquake Damage of Pipeline System
【摘要】 利用门限自回归原理对山西地区未来地震活动进行了预测。结果表明,山西地区至2000年可能发生的最大地震的震级为ML5.3,而1997年可能发生的最大地震震级为ML4.1。认为,在该区未来几年内发生MS≥6.0地震的可能性不大。
【Abstract】 The failure forms of the buried pipeline,the influence factors of pipeline damage and the damage grades have been related The mathod and steps of the earthquake damage prediction of the buried pipeline using fuzzy mathematic method,and the earthquake damage prediction of the water supply pipeline in Xinzhou by this method have been expounded,the results of the earthquake damage prediction under the effect of the intensities Ⅶ~Ⅸ have been given
【关键词】 山西;
地震活动趋势;
门限自回归模型;
【Key words】 Fuzzy mathematics Seismic disaster prediction Water supply pipe network;
【Key words】 Fuzzy mathematics Seismic disaster prediction Water supply pipe network;
- 【文献出处】 山西地震 ,EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH IN SHANXI , 编辑部邮箱 ,1997年03期
- 【分类号】P315.7
- 【被引频次】2
- 【下载频次】43