【摘要】 <正> 一、前言本作者曾采用激光散斑法对首都圈现今断层活动特征进行均质平面问题的物理模拟实验。实验结果给出不同区域应力场作用下61条断层上221个测点的水平活动特征,通过与本区63个跨断层观测台,点观测曲线的对比,不仅证明本区唐山7.8级地震前后和大同阳高6.1级地震前后至今的区域应力作用方式已由N65°～70°W变为N30°～50°E,而且较好地反映出断层活动量与地震活动的频率及强度相关、断层活动的分区性、分更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study,the new techniques were used and improved,which the plane model was developed into three-dimensional model and the homogeneous model was developed into non-homogeneous model.Using the laser speckle with surveying internal surface displacement and leaving surface displacement and the shadow-moire＇method,many important data were obtained.The identical rate of experimental data with the actual measurement results is over than 90％.To increase the precision is the key factor of this study. According to the observing curves of 63 stations overpassing faults in capital circle,the relationship between fault current activity and strong earthquake was studied.In order to track strong earthquake activity,two modern optical measurement techniques were used,which was the first time at home and abroad to do the physical simulated experiment on fault activity in the vast areas.18 graphs of fault active of capital were obtained from our experiments.Each graph which acting direction of region stress field changed lO°includes 61 faults and 221 measuring spots and indicates plane moving direction,moving amount,fault block spot,plane active tension of fault,vertical up or down activity of the fault and so on.Through analyzing the parameters of each graph,three key factors of earthquake prediction can be determined.So long as knowing the acting direction of the stress field,consulting fault active graphs,combining microearthquake materials and analyzing observing curves of 63 stations,the strong earthquake could be tracked and predicted.更多还原