【摘要】 利用长短期记忆(long short-term memory, LSTM)网络对水轮机机组的运行状态进行预测。对水轮机机组的流式监测数据进行标准化处理,并利用滑动窗口技术将数据转换为LSTM网络训练所需的训练数据集与测试数据集;给出LSTM预测模型结构,并通过调节网络层数、隐层神经元数目等参数对模型进行优化,建立水轮机机组的时间序列数据预测模型。经试验分析验证,与其它模型相比,基于多测点的多元长短期记忆网络预测模型具备更高的预测精度,并基于改进的雷达图分析法计算健康偏离度,成功地检测出某水电厂5号水轮机机组5月末的数据出现异常,验证了模型的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Long short-term memory(LSTM) networks was adapted to make accurate prediction of the unit?s operation status. The streaming monitoring data of the turbine unit was standardized, and the sliding window technology was used to convert the data into the training data set and test data set for LSTM network training. The LSTM prediction model structure was given, and the structure of LSTM prediction model was fine-tuned, such as the number of network layers and the number of hidden layer neurons. The time series data prediction model of the hydro turbine unit was established. The experimental analysis proved that the multi-measurement-based LSTM network prediction model had higher prediction accuracy than other models, which calculated the health deviation based on the improved radar image analysis method and successfully detected the abnormality of the No. 5 hydraulic turbine unit of a hydropower plant at the end of May, and verified the validity of the model.更多还原