【摘要】 空气质量是影响入境旅游发展的重要因素。文章以京沪两地的空气质量和入境旅游游客的月度数据为例,建立两地空气质量指标和入境旅游之间的VAR模型。利用脉冲响应分别分析了京沪两地的空气质量对入境旅游的动态冲击作用。脉冲响应分析结果表明:北京市较严重的空气污染问题对其入境旅游的影响作用微乎其微,而上海市的入境旅游状况受到其空气质量的负面影响较大。研究得出:空气污染和入境旅游之间不是简单的负面影响关系,而是因不同地区之间的差异有不同的动态冲击作用。根据研究结果,文章提出了针对京沪两地的管理措施以促进两地的入境旅游发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Air quality is an important factor aff ecting the inbound tourism development. Taking the monthly data of air quality and inbound tourist arrivals of Beijing and Shanghai as examples, this study establishes the VAR model to analyze the relationship between air quality and inbound tourist arrivals in Beijing and Shanghai. By the impulse response, this paper analyzes the influence of air quality on inbound tourism. The results show that the serious air pollution problem in Beijing has little effect on its inbound tourist arrivals, but the inbound tourism situation in Shanghai is greatly affected by its air quality. The study comes to the conclusions that the relationship between air pollution and inbound tourist arrivals is not only the negative impact, but different dynamic influence depending on the differences between different regions. Finally, based on the results of the study, the management measures for Beijing and Shanghai are proposed to promote the inbound tourism development.更多还原