【摘要】 基于江西省及周边16部新一代多普勒天气雷达拼图资料,利用交叉相关跟踪法(TREC)计算江西地区雷达回波的移动矢量(TREC风),并对求解的TREC风进行异常值更正和空洞补齐等质量控制,最后利用后向外推法对江西地区2017年6月29日09:54的雷达回波进行2 h内的外推。结果表明,TREC方法能较好地获得江西地区未来2 h内的雷达回波位置和空间结构,且在0—1 h的外推回波非常接近实况。通过对2018年6月1—9日201个天气过程0—2 h外推的TS评分统计表明,基于该方法外推的2 h内的雷达回波精度都较高(TS评分>0.3),但TS评分随外推时间的增长而快速降低,当外推时间为30 min时TS评分高达0.61,外推时间增至60 min时TS评分降至0.48,外推时间延长至120 min时TS评分进一步减至0.31。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on 16 Doppler weather radars data in Jiangxi province and surrounding area,the moving vector(TREC wind)of radar echo was calculated by TREC algorithm,and then the quality control of TREC wind was also carried out.Finally,the radar echo of Jiangxi area was extrapolated within 2 hours by using the backward extrapolation method.The result showed that the position and spatial structure of radar echo on June 29,2017 obtained by this extrapolation method within 2 hours were relatively accurate,and the extrapolated echo within1 hour was in good agreement with the observation.By statistically analyzing of the TSscores of radar echo extrapolation for 201 processes within 2 hours during the period of June 1-9,2018,the extrapolated radar echoes within 2 hours presented high accuracy(TSscore>0.3).However,the TSscore decreased rapidly with the increase of extrapolation time.The TSscore can reach 0.61 with the extrapolation time of 30 minutes,which correspondingly decreased to below 0.48 with the extrapolation time of 60 minutes,and the TSscore reduced to less than 0.31 with the extrapolation time of 120 minutes.更多还原