【摘要】 为研究乌鲁木齐市散煤燃烧对大气污染物的贡献情况,根据实地调研收集到的散煤燃烧活动水平数据,利用排放因子法建立2015年乌鲁木齐市散煤燃烧PM2. 5、SO₂和NOx的排放清单,利用Arc GIS空间分析工具进行空间分布特征分析,使用蒙特卡罗方法进行不确定性分析.结果表明:2015年散煤燃烧排放PM2. 5、SO₂、NOx分别为1. 70×10⁴、4. 13×10⁴、2. 80×10³t. PM2. 5和SO₂排放的主要贡献区域为乌鲁木齐县,分别占排放总量的27. 35%和26. 23%,这是由于乌鲁木齐县社区居民和大棚种植耗煤量较大所致;NOx排放的主要贡献区域为米东区,贡献率高达28. 03%,这是因为米东区社区居民所用炉灶为手动炉排层燃炉灶,其排放因子较大所致.空间分布特征表明,污染物主要分布在米东区南部、沙依巴克区北部及乌鲁木齐县中部.不确定性分析表明,村庄、社区、大棚种植、商业和事业单位在95%的置信区间时不确定性分别为-69%～165%、-57%～116%、-68%～171%和-67%～165%.蒙特卡罗预测结果（平均值）高于排放清单的计算结果.研究显示,乌鲁木齐市散煤燃烧对污染物排放贡献较大,并且具有明显的季节性和区域性特征.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the contribution of residential coal combustion to pollutants in Urumqi,based on the collected activity level,a 2015-based emission inventory of PM2. 5,SO₂ and NOxfrom residential coal combustion was established for Urumqi City by applying the emission factors method. The spatial distribution characteristics of the pollutant emissions were analyzed by Arcgis software and the uncertainty of the pollutant emissions was determined by Monte Carlo simulation methods. The results showed that the total pollutant emissions of PM2. 5,SO₂ and NOxfrom residential coal combustion in Urumqi in 2015 were 1. 70 × 10⁴,4. 13× 1⁰4 and 2. 80 × 10³ t,respectively. The main contribution district of PM2.5 and SO₂ emissions was Urumqi County,accounting for 27. 35% and 26. 23% of the total pollutant emissions,respectively,which was due to the large coal consumption by urban residents and greenhouse cultivation. Midong district was the major contribution district to NOxemissions,which accounted for 28. 03% due to the large emission factor of manual fire grate layer stoves. The spatio-temporal distribution showed that the pollutant emissions were mainly distributed in the south of Midong District,the north of Saybagh District and center of Urumqi County. The uncertainties analysis with 95% confidence intervals for rural and urban residential areas,greenhouse cultivation and commercial institutions were-69%-165%,-57%-116%,-68%-171% and-67%-165%,respectively. The simulation results obtained by the Monte Carlo method（ average value） was slightly higher than the calculated emissions with average emission factors. The results show that the contribution of residential coal combustion to the pollutants is large in Urumqi City,and has obvious seasonal and regional characteristics.更多还原