【摘要】 基于向量自回归模型,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果分析、脉冲相应和方差分解来研究旅游交通碳足迹与旅游经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:国内旅游收入、国际旅游收入与旅游交通碳足迹之间存在长期正向均衡关系;国内旅游收入与旅游交通碳足迹存在单向因果关系,国内旅游经济增长构成旅游交通碳足迹的Granger原因。基于上述结论,提出发展旅游经济要坚持生态文明的发展理念与"节能减排"的发展目标,实现旅游业低碳化发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the VAR model, the dynamic relationship between tourism traffic carbon footprint and tourism economic growth was studied by co-integration test, Granger causality analysis,impulse correspondence and variance decomposition. The results showed that:(a) There was a long-term positive equilibrium between domestic tourism income, international tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(b) There was a one-way causal relationship between domestic tourism income and tourism traffic carbon footprint;(c) Domestic tourism economic growth constituted the Granger cause of tourism traffic carbon footprint. Based on the above conclusions, it was proposed that the development of tourism economy should adhere to the development concept of ecological civilization and the development goal of "energy saving and emission reduction", so as to realize the low-carbon development of tourism.更多还原