节点文献
TIP方法在大华北地区预报效能的研究
A STUDY OF THE PREDICTION EFFFCTIVENESS OF TIP METHOD IN LARGE NORTH CHINA AREA
【摘要】 用改进的M8算法研究了1979年以来大华北地区存在的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明8次中强震有7次发生在被判定为概率增长时间内,TIP警戒占研究总时空域的40.7%,R评分为0.468。获得了较好的中强震中期预测内符效果,表明该方法可作为大华北地区中强震中期预测的手段之一。
【Abstract】 This paper studies the TIP, that is the probability increase time of the strong earthquakes occerrence, existing in North China area since 1979 by modified M8 algorithm.The result shows that 7 of the8 moderately strong earthquakes occurred in Probability increase time, the TJP warnings.makes up 40.7% of the studied total time-space domain,. the evaluated point of R is.0T468, objaining a relativelygood mid-term prediction effect of moderately strong earthquakes,which indicates that this metbod canbe used as one of mid - term prediction means of moderately strong earthquakes.,in lage North Chinaarea.
【Key words】 M8 algorithm; main shock. after shock; earthquake flww function;
- 【文献出处】 华北地震科学 ,NORTH CHINA EARTHGUAKE SCIENCES , 编辑部邮箱 ,1994年04期
- 【分类号】P315.7
- 【下载频次】21