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基于信息扩散估计的洪水风险分析

Flood Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffuse Estimation

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【作者】 李梅张洪波黄强佟春生薛小杰

【Author】 LI Mei1,2,ZHANG Hong-bo1,HUANG Qiang1,TONG Chun-sheng1,3,XUE Xiao-jie1 (1.Institute of Water Resources & Hydroelectric Engineering, Xi′an University of Technology,Xi′an 710048,China;2.Dept.of Planning and Programming,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;3.Dept.of Electrical Engineering,Branch of North University of China,Taiyuan 030008,China)

【机构】 西安理工大学水利水电学院西安理工大学水利水电学院 陕西西安710048黄河水利委员会规划计划局河南郑州450003陕西西安710048中北大学分校电气工程系山西太原030008

【摘要】 针对信息扩散估计的过扩散和欠扩散问题,在分析择近窗宽法和最优窗宽法的基础上,结合二者的优点,提出了一种确定扩散窗宽的多目标综合优化方法.经对2χ分布和F分布的检验表明,该方法能较好地逼近理论分布曲线.应用该法对黄河干流龙门站年最大流量的洪水风险进行分析,得到了最大流量概率密度分布函数以及不同重现期的估计值,为维持黄河的健康提供了较为客观的依据.

【Abstract】 Aim at the overdiffuse and subdiffuse of information diffuse estimation,a multi-subject integrated optimization was given to determine diffused window width based on analyzing closest window width means and optimal window width means.By testing χ2 and F distribution of data,it was proved that the method had a better approach to theoretical distribution curve than above two methods.To research its effect in flood risk analysis,the maximum discharge was took at Longmen station in the main stream of the yellow river as an example,and probability density distribution function of maximum discharge and the estimated value of different recurrence intervals were obtained.They could be used as the more objective data to protect the yellow river health.

【基金】 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40501011,5067070);陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(2006D09)
  • 【文献出处】 中北大学学报(自然科学版) ,Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2007年03期
  • 【分类号】TV122
  • 【被引频次】10
  • 【下载频次】266
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