【摘要】 【目的】在劳动力价格上升的背景下,测算水稻机械化生产中劳动力与农业机械的影子替代弹性,为我国农业全程机械化实现路径提供理论参考。【方法】根据诱致性技术变迁理论,基于2015—2017年江苏省水稻种植户追踪调查数据,利用超越对数成本函数模型对水稻生产中农业机械和劳动力的影子替代弹性进行实证分析,进一步比较各生产环节的替代差异并对其中原因进行探究。【结果】价格仍然是水稻生产中劳动力和机械要素需求的重要调节指标;水稻生产过程中劳动力和机械投入间存在显著的替代关系,全过程的平均替代弹性为0.331,且随着时间的推移替代强度逐渐增大;耕地、收割和播种(插秧)三大环节中劳动力和机械的平均替代弹性分别为0.384、0.358和0.315,播种(插秧)环节明显小于耕地和收割环节。进一步探究发现,在播种环节,农户选择节约劳动力的播种方式不是唯一,直播技术对机插秧有很强的替代性。【建议】合理调控农业要素价格,不断完善要素市场机制机制;应加大农业机械化的推广力度,形成对劳动力的有效替代;同时,在全程机械化过程中应特别关注各生产环节对机械的差异化需求,根据现实情况有针对性和方向性地进行推广。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】Under the background of rising labor price,the elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in rice mechanized production was estimated in order to provide reference for implementation path of mechanization process of agriculture in China.【Method】According to the induced technology change theory,the trans-log cost function model was used to empirically measure the shadow substitution elasticity between agricultural machinery and labor in rice production,which was based on the tracking survey data of rice farmers in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2017. And the substitution differences between various production links were also compared,then the related reasons were explored.【Result】The results showed that,price was still an important regulation indicator for the demand for labor and machinery in rice production. There was a significant substitution relationship between labor and machinery in the rice production.The average elasticity of substitution of the whole process was 0.331,and it increased gradually with time. The average elasticity of substitution between labor and machinery in plow,harvest and sowing(transplanting)were 0.384,0.358 and0.315,respectively. Moreover,at the sowing(transplanting)link,the choice of saving labor was not unique due to the substitution of direct seeding technology to machine transplanting,which led to the substitution elasticity in the sowing(transplanting)link was much smaller than that of the plow and harvest.【Suggestion】Therefore,the agricultural factors prices should be reasonably regulated,and the factor market mechanism should be improved. The extension strength of agricultural mechanization should be increased to form an effective substitute for labor force. Meanwhile,in the process of promoting the mechanization of agriculture,the differentiated demand for machinery in various production links must be paid attention to,and promote it according to the actual situation.更多还原