【摘要】 将来的地震预报,应该像现在的天气预报,可以有预报不准的时候,但是有明确、可靠的观测依据,其中之一就是地面应变场变化图像。提供观测应变场变化图像并不是简单地给出一个等值线图,而是要遵守可比、一致和有限3个原则。能够给出这样的图像,就是跨越性的、巨大的成功。应该围绕这个目标来规划“十一五”地震预报实验场项目。应该循序渐进地分两步走:第一步要建立相对稀疏的、均匀的观测网,同时建立一些不同间距的试验性观测点;第二步再根据设防地震要求、构造影响以及试验性观测点的实践补充观测点。更多还原

【Abstract】 The future earthquake prediction should be performed like the weather forecast nowadays,sometimes being incorrect but having been based on unambiguous and reliable observations.One of the observations should be the variation pattern of the earth′s surface strain.Providing the variation pattern is not as simple as just plotting a contour figure.Three principles of the comparability,unification and finiteness must be obeyed.It will be a decisive progress that such variation pattern of the surficial strain field can be shown to the public.This should be one of the main goals of the Earthquake Prediction Test Site Project in the Eleventh Five Year Plan.The project should be carried out step by step.First, we may establish a relatively sparse network with observation sites evenly scattered,meanwhile we should set up some additional observation sites at different distances for the test.Then,we can densify the network by adding new sites according to the minimum magnitude of the earthquakes to be predicted,influence of local tectonics and practice of the test site.更多还原