【摘要】 研究结果输出受控下时间和概率联合优化的GERT网络模型。针对网络信息的不确定性特点,提出以灰数表征GERT网络参量,将结果输出的受控信息作为约束条件的分析框架;基于满意度最大化的目标,建立了时间和概率联合优化模型,以估测网络中时间和概率的可能分布数值。以某地震抢险救灾项目为例,对项目中各活动概率和完成时间进行了研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discuss the joint of time and probability optimization model under the controlled output of the GERT network.In allusion to the characteristics of the network information uncertainty,we propose an analysis framework by using grey number to characterize the parameters of GERT network and using the controlled information of results as the constrained condition.Base on the target of the maximum satisfaction,this paper builds an optimization model for the joint of time and probability to estimate the probable distribution of time and probability of the network.In this paper,we take an earthquake rescue and relief project for example and discuss the probability and time of the project activities.更多还原