【摘要】 通过实地调查并结合前人研究成果,综合分析了羊头铺水库区的地质构造背景、地震活动性及水文地质条件等。在此基础上,应用构造类比法和概率预测法对羊头铺水库诱发地震的可能性进行了分析。结果表明,库区南段有发生水库诱发地震的可能性,发生MS1.0～3.0地震的概率约为0.19,诱发最大地震强度为MS3.0左右。而库区北段有发生MS1.0地震的可能性,发震概率仅为0.03。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of field investigation and previous research,we comprehensively analyzed the tectonic background,seismic activity and hydrogeology condition of the Yangtoupu reservoir.Then we discussed the probability of the earthquake induced by Yangtoupu reservoir using structural-analogy method and probabilistic statistic method.The results show that there is possibility for the southern region of the Yangtoupu reservoir to induce earthquake and the probability of reservoir induced earthquake from M1.0 to M3.0 is about 0.19.The biggest magnitude of the induced earthquake is about M3.0.The northern region of it has little possibility to induce M1.0 earthquake and the probability is only 0.03.更多还原