【摘要】 2001年11月14日在昆仑山口西发生了8.1级地震,震中位置为90.9°E、36.2°N。分析表明,8.1级地震前一些主要地震活动性异常都出现了,例如空区、条带、增强、平静和震群等,且与7级大震比较,这些前兆图象的演变具有类似的过程,所不同的是8.1级地震的前兆地震活动图象涉及的区域范围更大、地震震级更高,这为特大地震的前兆识别和预报提供了依据。最后回顾了对这次大震的粗略预测,并讨论了有关大震预测的某些问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 A great earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on No vember 14 , 2001. The epicenter is located at 36. 2°N and 90. 9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e. g. , seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with Ms = 7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.更多还原