【摘要】 地震危险性分析结果不确定性产生的根本原因是地震机理的未确知性和资料的未确知性．由于未确知性的存在，应该综合各专家意见以得到尽可能合理的分析结论．为此，本文提出了一种专家意见数字化方法，并应用于鲜水河断裂带的地震危险性分析．更多还原

【Abstract】 It is the unascertainty about the earthquake mechanics and the data,that brings about the uncertainty of the output results of seismic risk analysis. Because of the existence of unascertainty,the ideas of different experts should be synthesized reasonably, so that the most rcasonable conclusions are get out.For this purpose,in this paper,a kind of digitisation method is proposed,and also it is used in the seismic risk analysis of Xian Shui River Fault Zone.更多还原