【摘要】 根据翁文波信息预测理论,对江苏-南黄海地区强震的信息有序网络结构特性与地震活动分期进行了研究.结果表明,1839~1997年本区已经历了3个强震轮回,从1998年起本区进入新一轮地震平静幕,持续时间可能长达40~50年,在此期间内可能仍有个别5级左右地震发生,但一般不会发生6级或6级以上强震或强震丛,下一次6级强震或强震丛可能发生在2053年或2058年前后.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the information forecast theory of Weng Wen-bo,we discuss the temporal orderliness of strong earthquakes,its ordered network structure and division of seismic periods in Jiangsu-the South Yellow Sea region.The results show the ending of 3 strong-earthquake cycles from 1839 to 1997 and suggest a new quite episode since 1998 in this region,which will be lasting 40 or 50 years.In this long period,exceptional Ms≥5 earthquakes would possibly occur while Ms≥6 earthquakes or swarms would not happen.Next Ms≥6 earthquake or swarms would possibly occur in the year of 2053 or 2058 or so.更多还原