【作者】 李永丽；

【导师】 刘衍珩；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 计算机系统结构， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 应急信息平台是应急管理部门实现应急管理职责的主要载体,目前我国的应急平台建设还不是十分完善,如何整合应急响应中复杂的信息、实现不同级别的信息平台间数据共享等问题是实现应急快速响应的关键。应急信息平台的建设是一个复杂的系统工程,建设应急平台需要多学科的知识整合,要充分利用现代计算机技术、信息通信技术、交通路网监控技术、物流管理技术等为应急救援的展开提供先进、科学的技术和方法,最终实现应急处置的信息化和科学化。要实现一个科学的、高效的应急平台,要求对整个应急流程进行深入的研究,只有对整个应急过程做出全面、深入的把握,才能以计算机等其它学科为基础,利用先进的软件技术,网络技术来取得预期的结果。应急平台的建设需要从硬件与软件两方面着手,只有硬件或是软件都难以完成任务。针对建设应急平台的客观需要,本文从突发事件应急处置信息平台的理论与实践两方面入手,对应急平台的建设过程中遇到的关键问题进行了深入的研究。本文对以下内容进行了深入研究。提出了应急预案的建立、组织、存储,评估等理论框架体系。具体包括应急预案基本概念阐述、应急预案在安全生产工作中的地位和作用、应急预案的基本结构、应急预案的类型、应急预案的编制过程以及应急预案的演练;提出了应急预案的数字化表示;给出了基于案例推理的基本过程以及突发公共事件处置过程中如何基于CBR进行推理。通过利用贝叶斯分类器将类别未知的样本预测为具有最大后验概率的类别,提出了使用TAN分类器来对危险源进行评估的方法。使用概率的方法将危险源判定为具有最大概率的类别,实现了具体的评估过程,并取得了较为理想的实验结果,最终证明了提出的方法的可行性。应用遗传算法求解资源调度问题,改进了遗传算法求解应急资源调度问题的染色体编码方法,解码方法。提出了基于一点、二点变体的交错交叉变体交叉方法,对于应急资源调度要求每一种资源从出发点到目的点一定要满足路线设计的拓扑排序规则,交错交叉变体能很好地满足要求,实验证明改进后的算法表现更好,能显著提高算法的性能,并且能求得较优的结果。实现了一个应对突发公共事件应急处理信息平台。针对应急平台的客观需要完成了系统的各功能模块设计,主要内容包括信息处理模块,应急预案模块,预案评估模块,应急资源模块,辅助决策模块,危险源模块,案例库模块,应急常识,法律法规等模块。信息处理模块主要记录事故发生的时间、地点、事故类型等事故本身的自然属性信息。应急预案模块主要实现预案的在线制定、预案的评估等功能。应急资源模块包括整个应急领域的应急队伍、应急专家、应急资源等。辅助决策模块主要实现演练参数的设定、演练现场处置方案的生成、演练数据的汇总、预案的再评估。危险源模块通过具体参数及国家标准对重大危险源进行定量评估。案例库模块存储历史救援案例。应急常识、法律法规模块存储相关规章、法规等,以供应急管理人员查询学习使用。应急平台的建设与国家的持久发展、人民生存问题息息相关,建立一个功能强大,组织科学的应急平台体系是一个十分复杂的系统工程。应急平台的建设需要各学科、领域的专家及技术人员共同努力合作。为实现我们国家的长治久安、经济的快速发展及实现以人为本的理念都需要有一个强大的处置突发事件的应急信息平台做为后盾。与此同时也必须要认识到一个复杂的功能齐全的应急响应平台系统不是短时间内可完成的,它是一个长期的系统工程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Emergency information platform is the main carrier of emergency management department to achieve the emergency management responsibilities. Now our country’s emergency platform is not perfect. How to integrate emergency response of complex information, achieve data sharing between different levels information platforms is the key to realize quick responses.Emergency Information Platform is a complex systematic project. It requires to integrate multidisciplinary knowledge. It is crucial to make use computer technology, information communications technology, traffic network monitoring technology, logistics management technologies as advanced scientific techniques and methods for emergency rescue launched, and then realize emergency informationization. To achieve a scientific and efficient platform for first demand of the entire emergency response process in-depth research on the emergency procedure only to make a comprehensive, in-depth understanding of computer and other subjects can be based on the use of advanced software technology, network technology to achieve the desired results. Emergency Platform needs hardware and software, and have only hardware or software is difficult to complete the task.Based on the requirement to build emergency platform,, this article talks about the key problems in the construction process within both theory and practice. The paper mainly made the following research.Proposed the establishment of contingency plans, organization, storage, evaluation of the Theoretical Framework, specifically including contingency plans described the basic concept, contingency plans for production safety work in the position and role of the basic structure of contingency plans, contingency plans for the type of emergency plan preparation and emergency response plan exercise. Made contingency plans, said the digital,and shows the basic process of case-based reasoning and the process of public emergency disposal of CBR-based reasoning.Through the Bayesian classifier to predict the type of unknown samples. TAN classifier made use of to the source of risk assessment methods, the probability of the hazard determination for the category with the greatest probability to achieve a specific assessment process and obtain a more satisfactory results, the ultimate proof of the proposed the method.Genetic algorithm to resource scheduling, improved resource scheduling genetic algorithm for solving the problem of chromosome emergency coding method, decoding method. Proposed based on point or two variants of staggered cross-variant cross-method dispatching requests for emergency resources, resources from the starting point of each to the destination point must be designed to meet the line of topological sorting rules, staggered cross-variable physical well meet the requirements The experimental results show better performance of the improved algorithm can significantly improve the performance of the algorithm, and can obtain optimum results.This paper Implements a responsive information platform. Objective requirement for the emergency platform to complete the system design of each functional module, the main content: information processing model, contingency plans for the module, plan evaluation module, emergency resources, modules, decision support module, dangerous source modules, case base module, emergency knowledge two model laws and regulations. Information processing module of the accident records of the time, location, types of accidents such as accident information on their natural attributes. Contingency plans to achieve the module main plan online development, plan evaluation functions. Case Library module stores historical rescue cases. Emergency sense, laws and regulations related to the two module storage regulations, laws and regulations, to supply emergency management personnel learn how to use queries.The construction of emergency platform is closed linked the development of the country and people’s Build a powerful, organized system of scientific response platform is a very complex project. Construction of the platform needs emergency disciplines, experts and technical staff work together to co-operation. To achieve our long-term stability for the country, and our economy’s rapid development and the realization of people-centered concept needs a strong sudden event of emergency information platform as a backup. At the same time, we must understand that a complex fully functional emergency response system is not a platform to be completed within a short time; it is a long-term and systematic project.更多还原