【作者】 邱海蓉；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业贸易与农村金融管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 茶叶是中国的传统出口农产品,在创汇方面发挥着积极的作用,是农民特别是山区茶农脱贫致富的重要产业。作为最早发现、利用茶叶的国家,中国的茶叶生产和出口在世界上占据着极其重要的地位,而绿色消费风潮的影响使茶叶产品未来具有广阔的国际市场和出口潜力。加入WTO以后,中国茶叶产品将面临更加全面的国际化竞争,然而,在茶叶生产和出口贸易迅速发展的同时,多方面的问题暴露显现,影响了中国茶业国际化的进程,尤其是国际茶叶市场长期供大于求,在买方市场背景下,进口国的质量标准日趋严格,加上金融危机等不确定因素的影响,需求成为制约茶叶出口的关键。作为中国的国际竞争力相对较强的农产品之一,如何充分利用经济全球化和加入WTO的契机发挥茶叶产业比较优势,是值得认真研究、探讨的。由于主流国际贸易理论都是从供给方面探讨国际贸易的发展,国内学者对茶叶出口贸易的研究多从供给的视角分析茶叶出口贸易,专门研究茶叶国际消费需求的文献很少,因此,对中国茶叶出口需求的变化、特点、趋势等发展规律进行系统研究,提出有针对性的可操作的建议,弥补相关领域研究的不足,有重要的理论意义和实践意义。本文在吸收总结国际贸易学、计量经济学、农业经济学、茶学等理论研究成果的基础上,结合茶叶出口的现实状况,将理论分析与实证分析、定性分析与定量分析相结合,运用灰色系统模型、案例分析、比较分析、统计分析、计量经济模型等多种研究方法,从需求角度探寻中国茶叶出口贸易发展的内在规律,对中国茶叶出口的国际需求进行了系统深入地规范分析与实证研究。论文分为九章,主要研究了以下内容：第一章导论,阐述了选题背景、研究目的和意义、研究思路与方法、主要创新以及技术路线等内容。本章重点在于借鉴总结与主题相关的研究成果,通过客观评述现有相关文献,概括重要观念和基本方法,并找出研究的不足,作为本文进一步研究的切入点。第二章详细系统地论述了研究的理论基础,主要理论支撑包括国际贸易的基本理论、需求及其与国际贸易发展关系的理论以及以需求为导向的营销理论。第三章是世界及中国茶叶生产与出口状况分析。为了准确把握茶叶出口的国际市场环境,本章详细研究总结了世界及中国茶叶生产、贸易发展历程与现状,数据表明,中国茶叶出口历来在世界茶叶贸易中占据显著地位,但与世界其它茶叶出口大国相比,在某些方面存在差距。中国茶叶出口市场主要集中在亚、非地区,摩洛哥是中国最大的茶叶出口国,此外,从长期看,美国、日本、俄联邦以及德国也是中国重要的茶叶出口市场。本章是论文研究的背景和前提。第四章从长期的角度,根据供需理论,运用相关系数、协整、格兰杰因果关系检验逐层深入地对中国茶叶出口贸易的变动与国际需求的相关性进行了分析,结论与预期相符,在长期范围内,影响中国茶叶出口贸易的最主要因素是国内产量和世界进口总量,特别是世界进口总量,与中国茶叶出口数量互为因果,相互影响,说明国际市场需求的变动与我国茶叶出口贸易的变动密切相关。但结果同时显示世界茶叶出口平均单价与我国茶叶出口贸易之间没有因果关系,中国茶叶出口平均单价与世界茶叶出口平均单价以及中国茶叶出口数量是非协整的,反映了中国茶叶出口贸易没有完全与国际市场接轨,低价竞销是主要原因。根据本章的实证结论,在后面章节中分别对影响中国茶叶出口需求的主要因素一品牌和营销策略、质量安全、进口国贸易政策、消费者偏好以及需求弹性等进行了详细的分析。本章是全文的实证基础。第五章研究了中国茶叶主要出口市场的进口现状、需求弹性、消费偏好等需求特征,并比较了国内外茶叶消费需求的异同。中国茶叶出口主要市场中,多数国家的弹性数值小于1,表明中国茶叶出口需求缺乏弹性,茶叶具有嗜好品或生活必需品的特征,加上中国出口茶叶多为附加值低的初级产品,这是造成我国茶叶出口需求缺乏弹性的重要原因,降价反而会使销售收入减少。第六章研究了中国茶叶主要出口市场的贸易壁垒,发现关税壁垒的作用日益弱化,技术性贸易壁垒成为主要障碍,欧盟和日本的产品标准最为严格。尽管中国政府非常重视茶叶产品质量安全,但中国茶叶产品的质量安全还是存在一些问题,需要进一步完善管理,建议如下：加强茶叶科技研发及产品创新,重视质量安全标准体系建设；推进茶叶出口市场多元化战略；打造茶叶知名品牌,树立产品形象；培育茶叶出口龙头企业；提高茶叶出口服务社会化程度,建立健全信息服务体系；发挥政府和行业组织的力量；重视人力资源建设并加强国际交流与合作。第七章通过灰色系统模型预测了中国茶叶出口规模、中国茶叶产量、世界茶叶进口规模、中国主要出口国家的进口规模在未来4年(2009-2012)的发展趋势。预测结果显示,未来世界主要茶叶进口国将会更加看重产品的品质。第八章运用层次聚类分析法细分中国茶叶出口市场,综合考虑聚类结果和实际情况,将中国茶叶出口市场细分为6类。以“立顿营销创新”和“普洱茶庄园”为例,分析了中国茶叶出口营销模式创新的核心理念,并在此基础上提出相应对策建议：提高营销主体的组织化、规模化程度,完善产品创新和服务创新机制,实施包括原产地品牌和产品品牌两层内涵的品牌战略,利用现代科技手段和社会思潮,创新营销内容和方式。第九章在总结前述各章研究成果的基础上,从政府的宏观管理职能出发提出政策建议：充分利用WTO“绿箱”和“黄箱”政策,加大对茶叶产业的支持；规范茶叶出口竞争秩序；完善相关法律保障体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tea is one of the traditional agricultural products for export in China, it plays a positive role in foreign exchange earning, and it is also an important industry for peasant. As the country that make use of tea earliest, China’s tea production and export has very important place in the world, and tea products have broad international market under the influence of green consumption in the future. China’s tea products will face more competitions after john WTO, problems are appearing to hinder the development of China’s tea industry, especially in the situation that tea supply are over demand, quality criterions in the countries that import tea are becoming stricter, with the uncertain factor such as financial crisis, demand plays a key role in tea export more and more, so analysis and study of international tea demand is very important.With the direction of international trade theories, econometrics, agricultural economics and tea theories, the thesis combines theories with practice, quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, and adopts the methods of GM(1,1) model, case study, comparative study, statistical study and econometrics models to make a systematic analysis of overseas demand of China’s tea export.The thesis consists of nine chapters, as follows:The first chapter is about introduction, it deals mainly with the background, purpose, significance, ideas, methods, innovations and techno-way of the study. This part focus on the relevant researches of tea at home and abroad, summarizes the important viewpoints and the worthy methods from these researches, and finds out the shortage of these researches that need the further study.The second chapter expounds the theoretic basis of the study, the main rationale includes international trade theories, demand theories, theories about demand affecting international trade, and marketing theories guiding by demand.The third chapter is about analysis of tea production and trade in China and the world. To accurately grasp the tea market environment, this part makes a detailed summary of history and present situation about tea production and trade in China and the world, data make it clear that China’s tea have consistently held a remarkable position in world tea trade, but it has gap in some aspects compared with other countries that export tea. Export market of China’s tea mainly centralized in Asia and Africa, Morocco is the greatest oversea market of China’s tea, and, U.S.A., Japan, Russia, Germany are all important oversea market of China’s tea in long term. This chapter is the background and major premise of study.The fourth chapter tests the relevance between the fluctuation of China’s tea export and demand, by the methods of relevance coefficient, cointegration test and Granger test, the results make it clear that overseas demand is closely related with the fluctuation of China’s tea export. But the results also show that price has no effect to China’s tea export, the main reason is low price competition. Based on the former positive results, the thesis analyzes the interviews to tea export enterprises for investigating the decisive factors that affecting tea export, and finds the decisive factors are marketing tactics, safety quality, policy of trade, and so on. This chapter is positive basis of the thesis.The fifth chapter studies the current situation, demand elasticity, consumer preference of major foreign markets of China’s tea export, and makes a comparison between domestic and foreign consumption. Numerical demand elasticity of most foreign markets is smaller than 1, indicating that China’s tea export is lack of elasticity.The sixth chapter studies the trade barriers in major foreign markets, tariff barriers are reducing and technical barriers are becoming the biggest obstruction in China’s tea export. Although China’s government values quality of tea, there are some problems in China’s tea export, the thesis makes some suggestions to bring the management to completion as follows:strengthen R & D and innovation of tea technology; construct the safety quality criterion system; set up information system; give play to government and trades union; and so on.The seventh chapter forecasts the scales of China’s tea export, China’s tea outputs, tea import of world and China’s major foreign markets in the future 4 years (2009-2012) by using GM(1,1) model. The results make it clear that the quality of tea will play more important role in the future.The eighth chapter makes segmengtation for China’s tea oversea markets to 6 types by using cluster analysis. On the basis of taking "Lipton" and "Pu’er tea manor" as examples, the thesis analyzes the core idea of marketing for China’s tea export and makes suggestions about marketing:raise the scale of marketing subjects; perfect innovation mechanism; create new content and way of marketing by using modern technology.The last chapter makes suggestions based on the results of the former chapters from government’s angle:give strong backing to tea industry; maintain the competition order in tea export; improve legal insurance.更多还原