【作者】 费友海；

【导师】 孙蓉；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 保险学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 制度变迁和制度演化一直是演化经济学和制度经济学的核心问题之一,演化经济学开创了一种新的研究经济发展的方法和范式,提供了一个解释经济增长源泉的动态制度演化框架和技术变迁范式。制度构成了演化经济学研究的基本单位,创新、新奇、学习、选择、变异构成了演化经济学的制度演化框架的基础,而耗散结构理论(非平衡系统的自组织理论)、演化博弈论的产生及其发展夯实了演化经济学的理论体系。借助这些分析工具,演化经济学对制度动态演化、技术与制度的协同演化、制度与环境之间的关联性特征及其相互关系作出了更为全面、深入的分析和阐释。农业保险的发展过程,就其本质而言,是一个非平衡系统的自组织演化过程,农业保险既具备制度的基本特征,也具备系统自组织演化的基本特征。长期以来,关于农业保险制度演化的动力、路径及其机理,却未得到充分的关注和系统的研究,运用演化理论系统研究农业保险制度,至今还仍然是空白。关于农业保险的理论研究,要么仍然遵循新古典经济学的均衡分析范式,要么采用新制度经济学的基于交易成本的比较静态分析范式。关于农业保险制度的研究,更多的是关于法律制度、监管制度等单项制度安排的分析和机制构建分析,却忽略了对农业保险制度系统以及制度系统与制度环境之间相互关系的系统研究。由于缺乏一个动态演化的理论框架,现有的农业保险理论还难以对农业保险制度演化提供更为系统、深入和全面的分析和阐释,现有理论体系的缺陷和研究方法论的滞后致使其难以为中国农业保险的发展和中国传统农业的现代化转型提供厚实的理论支撑。现有的经济学理论体系虽然已经比较成熟,人们已经熟悉和习惯运用经济学的传统分析工具、分析范式来研究农业保险,但这种熟知、认知惯性却局限了人们的视野,无法跳出现有理论体系的窠臼,以获得对农业保险新的认识。因此,跳出现有分析范式的局限和限制,从一个新的视角,或许能获得对农业保险及其制度全新的认识。因此,本文从一个全新的分析视角——制度演化切入,将制度演化与农业保险有机结合,运用自组织理论、演化博弈论等演化经济学的前沿理论和分析工具,探究和分析中国农业保险演化的轨迹、动力机制、路径和趋势,阐释中国农业保险制度自组织演化的机理,通过对我国农业保险制度演化的开拓性、前瞻性研究,推动农业保险理论研究的创新和发展,为农业保险试点和未来我国农业保险制度的改革与创新发挥理论前瞻性的导向作用和建设作用。本文立足于中国社会经济转型的二元社会经济背景,以演化经济学和制度经济学理论为分析工具,以制度为分析单位,以制度演化为研究切入点,综合演化经济学、制度经济学、行为经济学和保险学等学科理论,基于跨学科的分析视野,从宏观制度层面和微观行为决策层面,探究农业保险制度变迁和演化的过程、本质和机理,以获得对中国农业保险制度变迁、演化的系统、全面的认知和理解。本文共分为九个部分：第一部分,导论。这一部分对本文的研究目的、意义和价值,农业保险制度研究领域的文献综述、国内外研究现状,本文的框架结构,论文的创新、研究难点和不足之处进行阐述。第二部分,农业保险制度演化的相关理论。本部分对本研究所涉及到的相关理论,如制度演化理论、自组织理论、演化博弈论、农业保险理论等,进行了介绍和评述,从而为后续的研究奠定理论基础。第三部分,中外农业保险制度的演化轨迹。本部分从历史的视角,梳理了中外农业保险制度形成、发展的制度变迁历程和演化轨迹。运用变迁的关键节点、演化的分叉点,将中国农业保险制度演化历程划分几个前后递进、相互关联的历史阶段,探讨不同历史阶段农业保险制度演化方式的差异,以及制度分叉对中国农业保险制度非平衡的、曲折的演化轨迹的影响。并对中外农业保险制度演化轨迹进行比较,探析农业保险演化轨迹形成的影响因素。第四部分,中国农业保险制度均衡、非均衡及其演化。本部分运用制度均衡理论、交易成本理论,从制度供给一需求的角度,对农业保险制度供给和制度需求的影响因素进行了分析,深入探析了供求互动下的制度均衡到非均衡的农业保险制度演化机理；阐析了农业保险制度与制度环境的互动关系以及农业保险制度安排与制度环境的互动是如何影响农业保险制度演化、变迁的,并探讨了农业保险制度路径依赖的产生原因和形成机理。第五部分,中国农业保险制度演化的自组织过程。本部分运用演化经济学重要分析工具——自组织理论,从系统自组织视角,研究了农业保险制度系统的自组织演化过程和自组织演化本质,对农业保险制度的演化阶段、自组织性、演化机制、动力和过程等做了详尽的分析。第六部分,中国农业保险制度的演化博弈分析。本部分运用演化博弈论分析了主体间重复博弈过程,深入研究了农业保险制度演化的微观行为机制,探析了具有学习能力和适应性特征的制度主体的认知、行为决策和战略的不断调整和改变是如何影响动态重复博弈的均衡结果——农业保险制度安排,即主体间的重复博弈是如何影响农业保险制度动态演化的轨迹、路径的。第七部分,中国农业保险制度演化的实践：以沪、苏、湘、川四省市的试点为例。本部分在前面理论分析的基础上,以上海、江苏、湖南、四川四省(市)农业保险制度试点实践为例,管中窥豹,通过对四省市农业保险制度创新、演化的实践的分析来透视和把握中国农业保险制度演化的全貌。第八部分,中国农业保险制度的演化路径。本部分分析了中国农业保险制度的演化路径和演化规律,探讨了制度环境、制度创新在形成中国农业保险制度演化路径中的作用。探析了创新一扩散机制作用下,中国农业保险制度的演化过程和演化路径的形成。第九部分,中国农业保险制度创新及其演化趋势。本部分在前面系统分析的基础上,对保障我国农业保险制度沿着高绩效轨道演化的创新机制、创新路径进行了探析,并对我国农业保险制度未来的演化趋势和发展走向进行初步分析、预测和展望。本文的创新主要体现于以下几个方面：第一,本文从一个全新的视角——制度演化的视角,基于跨学科的融会贯通与综合分析,尝试性地初步构建了中国农业保险制度演化的理论体系；从宏观制度层面和微观主体决策层面,运用自组织理论和演化博弈论等演化经济学和制度经济学的相关理论和前沿分析工具对农业保险制度演化过程及其本质进行了分析,将历史分析与制度分析相结合,从一个整体的、相互联系的、辨证及历史发展的视角研究农业保险制度的演化机理；在对中国农业保险制度演化的轨迹、动力、过程、路径进行系统分析的基础之上,本文大胆预测了其未来的演化趋势与发展走向。第二,本文首次从农户、保险公司、政府三者的风险认知、行为选择、政策导向入手,分析了农户、保险公司、政府等制度主体之间的互动关系及其风险认知、行为选择、政策安排与农业保险制度演化的关系,即从内因——制度主体和外因——政策导向、制度环境两个方面,系统分析了农业保险制度演化的动力、路径和机理,深入地探析了农业保险制度演化的微观行为机制和外部约束机制,从宏观和微观层面把握了农业保险制度自组织演化的基本特征,提出了农业保险制度演化的“内因—外因”双因素论,深化了对农业保险制度自组织演化过程及其机理的认识,为后面的政策分析和制度建构奠定坚实的理论基础。第三,在对农户的认知特征和行为模式进行分析后,笔者提出了一些新的观点：农户的行为特征不是完全理性,也不是有限理性,而是制度理性。农民行为是嵌入到制度环境中的,制度在不断地型塑着农民的心理、认知和行为,农民的行为也在不断创造和改变着制度,形成了人与制度相互影响、相互适应、互为因果的复杂关系；农户的风险认知、投保行为、风险决策都是基于特定制度环境下的理性决策,即农民的行为与制度是相适应的,农民具有制度理性,特定制度环境下的农民决策都是理性的,导致农民投保积极性不高的根本原因还在于我们的制度环境。本文通过分析得出如下结论：农业保险制度是一个自组织系统,农业保险制度演化是一个自组织过程；农业保险制度主体内部、制度主体之间以及主体与制度环境之间存在着复杂的非线性关系,彼此之间的相互复杂关系决定了农业保险制度的变迁呈现出自组织演化的不可预测性、稳态性与偶然性、渐进性与突变性、均衡性与非均衡性、线性性与非线性性等特征；农业保险制度演化是多维空间上展开的复杂性活动,农业保险制度演化的方向、路径是多样的、不确定的,农业保险可能会沿着高效路径发展,即制度进化,也可能锁定于低效甚至无效的路径上,即制度锁定、制度退化；农业保险制度的内因——制度主体,即政府、农民、保险公司之间的相互关系及其行为互动是决定农业保险制度自组织演化过程的动力,而农业保险制度的外因——制度环境通过对农业保险制度主体的作用、影响,而构成农业保险制度演化的重要外部约束,制度主体以及制度主体与制度环境之间的相互关系共同影响着农业保险制度自组织演化的轨迹、路径和方向。随着中国市场化改革的不断深入,政治经济体制改革的不断推进,整体制度安排、制度环境都在发生剧烈的变化,制度环境的变化,制度主体权力结构、目标函数、偏好特征及其博弈地位的变化,创新周期的波动,对未来中国农业保险制度的演化趋势和发展走向产生更复杂、更深远的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Institutional change and institutional evolution are one of the core issues of evolutionary economics and institutional economics, evolutionary economics pioneered a new research methods and paradigm of economic development, and provided the dynamic evolutionary framework and technological change paradigm that explain economic growth. Institution constitutes the basic unit of evolutionary economics, innovation, novelty, learning, selection and mutation constitute the foundation of evolutionary economics, while developing of the dissipative structure theory and evolutionary game theory consolidate the theoretical system of evolutionary economics. By virtue of these analytical tools, evolutionary economics can analyze and inquire into the dynamic evolution of institutions, co-evolution of technology and institutions and relationships between institutions and environment more comprehensively and deeply.On its essence, the development of agricultural insurance is the self-organization process of a non-balanced system, agricultural insurance not only have the basic characteristics of institution, but also have the basic features of system self-organization evolving. For a long time, it have been not receive adequate attention and systematic study about the driving force, path and its mechanism of agricultural insurance institution evolving. Using evolutionary theory, it is still blank to study agricultural insurance institution systematically. Theoretical research on agricultural insurance, or continues to follow the equilibrium analysis paradigm of neo-classical economics, or using the comparative static analysis paradigm of new institution based on transaction cost. The study on agricultural insurance institution is more analysis on individual institutional arrangement such as legal system, regulatory system or mechanisms to build, but ignores to analyze the system of agricultural insurance institution and the relationship between institutional institution and institutional environment.Because of absence of theoretical framework of the dynamic evolution, the existing theory of agricultural insurance is still hard to provide a more systematic and comprehensive analysis on the evolution of the agricultural insurance institution, because there are defects in the existing theoretical system and research methodology,so it is difficult to provide a solid theoretical support for China’s agricultural insurance development and the modernization transformation of China’s traditional agriculture. Therefore, based on a new analytical perspective—institutional evolution, combining institution evolution with agricultural insurance, applying frontier analysis methods of evolutionary economics such as self-organization theory and evolutionary game theory, this dissertation explores and analyzes the evolutionary trajectory, dynamic mechanism, path and evolutionary trends of China’s agricultural insurance, and explains the self-organization evolving mechanism of China’s agricultural insurance. Through pioneering and forward-looking research on the evolution of China’s agricultural insurance institution, this dissertation aims at promoting innovation and development of theoretical research on agricultural insurance, and playing the guiding and constructive role of theory for the reform and innovation of policy agricultural insurance and the development of China’s agricultural insurance institution in future.Based on the dual socio-economic background of China’s socio-economic transformation and cross-disciplinary perspective,applying evolutionary theory of evolutionary economics and institutional economics, integrating evolutionary economics, institutional economics, behavior economics and insurance, considering institution as the unit of analysis, from the macro-institution and micro-mechanism, this dissertation explores the process, nature and mechanism that China’s agricultural insurance institution changes and evolves, in order to understand the changing and evolving of China’s agricultural insurance institution comprehensively.This paper is divided into nine parts:PartⅠ, introduction. This part is the research purpose,significance and value of this dissertation, the literature review and research situation of in areas of researchs on agricultural insurance institution, and the theoretical framework, innovations and shortcomings of this dissertationPartⅡ, the related theories on evolution of agricultural insurance institution. This section introduces and reviews the relevant theories relating with this dissertation study, such as institutional evolution theory, self-organization theory, evolutionary game theory, and agricultural insurance theory, etc., so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the follow-up study.PartⅢ, the evolutionary trajectory of Chinese and foreign agricultural insurance institutions. From a historical perspective, this section analyzes the evolutionary trajectory and changing process of Chinese and foreign agricultural insurance institutions, and probes into the changing process that agricultural institutions formated, developed and evolved. Using the critieal junetur of change and evolutionary divarication point, author divides the evolutionary process of China’s agricultural insurance institution into a few before-after progressive, interrelated historical stages, explores the different historical stages of Chinese and foreign agricultural insurance institution evolution, and analyzes the different effect of institutional divarication on the trajectory,pathes and directions of Chinese and foreign agricultural insurance institution evolution.PartⅣ, the equilibrium, non-equilibrium and evolution of China’s agricultural insurance institution. Applying institutional equilibrium theory and transaction cost theory, from the supply-demand of institution, this section analyzes the influencing factors of the supply-demand of China’s agricultural insurance institution, studies the evolutionary mechanism of China’s agricultural insurance institution from institutional equilibrium to institutional non-equilibrium; explains how the interaction between agricultural insurance institution and institutional environment affects the evolution and change of agricultural insurance institution, and explores the causes that the path-dependence of agricultural insurance institution comes into being.PartⅤ, the self-organizing process of China’s agricultural insurance institution evolving. Applying self-organizing theory which is the important analytic method of evolutionary economics, from the perspective of self-organization,this section studies the self-organization evolving process of agricultural insurance system, and analyses the natures,stages,path, power and prccess of self-organization evolving of China’s agricultural insurance institution in detail.Part VI, the evolutionary game analysis of China’s agricultural insurance institution. Applying evolutionary game theory, this section analyzes the process of the intersubjective repeated games,explores the evolutionary process of China’s agriculturalinsurance institution based on dynamical game of govnerment,insurance corporates and farmers, and discusses how dynamical game of govnerment,insurance corporates and farmers effects on the dynamic evolution of agricultural insurance institution.Part VII, the evolutionary practice of China’s agricultural insurance institution: based on policy agricultural insurance experimental reform in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hunan and Sichuan. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this section analyzes the reform,invoation and evolution of agricultural insurance institutions in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Sichuan.Through the innovation of agricultural insurance system in the four provinces and cities, we grasp the evolutionary process and changing mechanism of China’s agricultural insurance institution.Part VIII, the evolutionary path of China’s agricultural insurance institution. This section analyzes the evolutionary path of China’s agricultural insurance institution and explores how the institutional environment and institutional innovation affect the evolution of China’s agricultural insurance institution, and explains the innovation-proliferation mechanism of China’s agricultural insurance institution evolving.Part IX, the innovation and evolutionary trends of China’s agricultural insurance institution. After systematicly analyzing the evolution of China’s agricultural insurance institution, based on the promoting China’s agricultural insurance institution evolving along the high-performance track, this section discusses the innovative mechanisms, and innovative path of China’s agricultural insurance institution and predicts the evolutionary trends of China’s agricultural insurance institution in the future.更多还原