【作者】 李明玉；

【导师】 李凯；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 近年来中国能源供给和能源消费变化趋势受到普遍关注,研究方法也在不断改进。本文采用系统动力学的方法,根据原有能源供给Hubbert理论与能源消费分解法的原理,构建系统动力学模型,将原来Hubbert曲线与分解法的解析模型转变成动态模拟模型,其中能源消费分解法的系统动力学模型还增加了预测功能。通过对新构建系统动力学模型的模拟结果与原模型进行比较,给出系统动力学模型的预测能力检验和方法优势分析。另外,中国能源供给和能源消费的增长趋势是能源研究中有必要关注的重要问题。本文根据新构建的系统动力学模型,结合中国的具体情况,预测中国能源供给和消费的变化趋势,分别给出中国煤炭和石油的产量曲线、高峰预测和能源消费的近期预测及其影响因素的贡献率,并对中国主要能源的供求关系进行分析,给出相关的政策建议。论文的意义在于发挥系统动力学的方法优势,增强原有能源研究模型的动态模拟和预测能力,并用新构建的模型分析和预测现实中的能源供给和消费问题,对方法改进和现实问题的解释都有一定的积极作用。论文研究内容主要包括以下六个方面：(1)综述能源供给Hubbert理论与能源消费分解法的研究进展。对Hubbert理论的研究进展作了比较详尽的梳理,包括Hubbert理论内容、在能源产量预测中的应用,以及成为新热点的曲线形状问题等。对能源消费分解法的综述包括早期的研究成果、方法局限、方法的改进和主要研究成果的特征等,以及各国学者对中国能源消费的分解研究。(2)构建能源供给Hubbert曲线的系统动力学模型。通过分析Hubbert曲线方法中与储量、产量相关因素的因果关系,给出各因素间的反馈环路及分析。在反馈环路分析的基础上给出Hubbert曲线的系统动力学模型,用以描绘某地区石油等不可再生能源的产量曲线,其中包括产量高峰的预测,并以美国的相关石油数据检验模型的预测能力。(3)构建能源消费分解法的系统动力学模型。将解析算法支持的分解法模型转变为系统动力学的动态模拟模型,可以通过分解过去年份的能源消费增量得到影响因素的贡献率,还能模拟未来能源消费增量及影响因素的效应。文中结合辽宁省的有关数据,模拟辽宁省能源消费影响因素的效应值,并与完全分解法的计算结果进行比较,以证明系统动力学模型的模拟分解能力。(4)给出能源消费系统动力学模型的扩展模型。扩展模型包括煤炭、石油消费分解的系统动力学模型,用以模拟煤炭、石油未来消费的变动趋势,分析过去年份与未来一定期限内经济增长与能源强度等因素对消费增量的贡献程度。(5)预测中国煤炭和石油的产量变化趋势与高峰。本文采用能源供给Hubbert曲线的系统动力学模型模拟计算中国煤炭、石油的产量变化,绘制出中国煤炭和石油的产量曲线,并预测二者的产量高峰及高峰出现的年份。文中利用模型的参数试验功能对最终可采储量和成长系数进行情景分析,给出不同情景下煤炭和石油产量的浮动区间。(6)分析和预测中国能源消费的需求水平。文中采用能源消费分解的系统动力学模型,结合中国的能源消费分解状况,预测未来中国能源消费的变动及影响因素的贡献率。文中还应用扩展模型模拟和预测煤炭、石油消费的变化趋势以及因素贡献率,量化分析经济增长与能源强度对消费量变化的具体影响。论文的主旨是将解析算法的模型改进成具有动态模拟功能的系统动力学模型,增加模型的功能,降低计算成本。应用系统动力学模型对现实问题的讨论,一方面能促进中国主要能源供求的量化分析,为政策制定提供较科学的依据；另一方面是为今后系统动力学及其模型的应用和推广做一个铺垫。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the issues of the energy supply and energy consumption in China have been the focus of both academic researchers and practitioners, with the progress of method modification. Based on the previous methods for energy supply and energy consumption, the System Dynamics is adapted to modify the Hubbert curve of energy supply and decomposition method of energy consumption in this dissertation. Therefore, the analytic models are transformed into the ones supported by the dynamic simulated arithmetic and forecasting function is added to decomposition model of energy consumption. By comparing the simulated results from System Dynamics models with that of original analytic models, tests of forecasting capability and method advantages for the new System Dynamics models are carried out.Moreover, it is the significant issues on China’s energy supply and energy consumption in future. According to the situation in China, the System Dynamics models developed are utilized to simulate and analysis the changing trends for China’s energy supply and consumption, including the Hubbert cuves for the main energy production, peak prediction, and tendency of main energy consumption with contributions by related factors. The related energy policies are given according to the equilibrium analysis on China’s energy supply and consumption.The main objectives of this dissertation are as follows. The dynamic stimulation and forecasting ability are determined by the System Dynamics models and then energy supply and energy consumption are analyzed and forecasted by these new models, which have a positive effect on method modification and explanation for the reality.There are six main sections in this dissertation shown below.(1) Literatures on the Hubbert theory of energy supply and the decomposition method of energy consumption are reviewed. The former includes main theory body, applications as well as the shapes of Hubbert curve which is focused on recently. The latter includes the early achievements in researches, limitions and modifications of some methods, feature of main researches and the discussions on Chinese energy consumption.(2) Establishing a System Dynamics model for the Hubbert curve of energy supply. By analyzing the causality of reserves, production and other related factors of Hubbert curve, the feedback loops and their analysis are presented. Then the System Dynamics model of Hubbert curve is established to describe the production curve of nonrenewable energy in some regions and to forecast the production peak. In addition, the oil production data in U.S. is used to test the predicting capability of the new System Dynamics model.(3) Establishing a System Dynamics model for the decomposition method of energy consumption. The original model solved by analytic arithmetic can be transformed into the dynamically simulated model, sothat contributions of influential factors could be determined by decomposing the previous annual energy consumption change. Moreover, future energy consumption changes and factors’effects can be simulated by the related data of Liaoning Provinvce, with the decomposed results of the factors’effects compared with that of complete decomposed method, which shows that System Dynamics model performs better.(4) The extended System Dynamics models of energy consumption are presented, such as the decomposition models for the changes of coal and oil consumption. These two models are employed to simulate the tendency of coal and oil consumption, and to discuss the impacts of economic growth and energy intensity on the changes of coal and oil consumption.(5) Forecasting the changing tendency and production peak for Chinese coal and oil. The System Dynamics model of Hubbert curve developed in this dissertation is adapted to simulate China’s coal and oil production to draw the production curves, to forecast peak productions and their corresponding years. The forecast and scenario analysis set by the growth rate "a" and ultimate reserves show the scopes of peak production.(6) Analyzing and Forecasting the future demand of China’s energy, coal and oil consumption. This dissertation adapts the System Dynamics model of energy consumption to decompose China’s energy consumption with related factors and simulate its future change in short term. Moreover, changing tendencies and factors’ contribution for China’s coal and oil consumption is forecasted by the extended models of energy consumption, in order to evaluate the effects of economic growth and energy intensity. The aims of this dissertation are setting System Dynamics models and make a discussion on China by models. The System Dynamics models presented in this dissertation have the advangtage of the more function and lower working cost than before. The discussion on China can provide the scientific base for energy policy-making according to the analyses on source demand and supply, as well as reinforce the application of System Dynamics.更多还原