【作者】 刘春梅；

【导师】 唐守廉；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 信息产业已被公认为是21世纪的朝阳产业,市场前景十分广阔,成为各国政府和学术界关注的焦点。信息产业的发展,引发了各国的经济增长质量的巨大变化,使经济增长从资源消耗型向知识型、技术型和创新型转化。因此,信息产业的发展状况已经成为衡量一国或地区经济、社会发展水平的重要标志之一。发展信息产业,推进信息化进程的新经济发展战略也被当今世界推崇备至。面对信息经济的全球化,研究信息产业与经济增长质量的关系,以及如何在保持经济增长数量较快增加的基础上,实现经济增长质量的显著提高,已成为我国现阶段经济发展的关键问题和学术界关注的焦点之一。本文首先介绍了论文的研究背景,并对研究文献进行了回顾和评述；然后在比较分析的基础上,以经验实证分析为主,逻辑演绎推理为辅,运用计量经济学、产业经济学、信息经济学、国民经济学和微观经济学等基本理论,通过分析经济增长的最终目的,提出了经济增长质量研究框架,即经济增长的效率、经济增长的产业结构和经济增长的就业结构三个维度,从而为本论文的研究提供了论述的立足点和出发点；最后对信息产业与我国经济增长质量各维度之间的关系进行了深入地剖析。1、介绍了论文的研究背景,并对研究文献进行了梳理,使我们对本文研究概况有了较全面的认识,为本文的研究主线提供了理论支持。2、介绍了信息产业的发展历程和经济特性,定性分析了信息产业对经济增长质量的作用,在对历史数据进行OLS分析和格兰杰因果关系检验的基础上,提出了信息产业对经济增长的作用重在影响经济增长质量,并对经济增长质量的维度进行了分析,从而为本论文后续章节的研究提供了论述的立足点和出发点。3、在多变量的分析框架下,选用向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应模型(IRF)、方差分解(VD)和向量误差修正模型(VEC)等非传统计量经济学分析方法分析我国信息产业与经济增长之间的关系,同时从TFP这一新的视角,通过估算资本存量进而建立了一个包括信息要素投入的修正C-D生产函数,在对各变量进行ADF检验和协整检验的基础上,通过经验数据实证分析揭示了经济增长与各生产要素投入之间存在着一种稳定的正相关关系。实证分析显示信息要素投入增加可以解释我国经济增长的0.5%(R2=97.3%)左右,这说明信息要素对我国经济增长的促进作用还是很显著的。4、利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,N)动态模型建模,得出信息产业与传统产业关联密切,对第三产业影响最大(r3=0.800)；接着分析了信息产业的感应度和带动度,认为信息产业是一个感应度和带动度都很高的产业,因而可以成为我国产业结构调整和升级的主导产业。5、就信息产业对我国就业结构的影响进行研究,信息产业对就业结构的优化起到一定的作用。首先,通过对结构性失业理论的研究,构建及分析了结构性失业模型,结合实际就信息产业对就业结构的影响进行了实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Information industry has been recognized as an innovative industry in the 21st century, with a huge market prospect. It has turn out to be the research focus among all countries. The development of Information industry has triggered a tremendous change of economic growth quality, which has transformed from resource consumption-based to knowledge & technology-based. Therefore, the development of Information industry has become an important symbol to measure the level of a country or regional economic and social development. Due to the globalization of Information economy, the research of the relationship between the Information industry and the quality of economic growth, and how to achieve a significant improvement for the quality of economic growth on the basis of sustaining this quantity of economic growth, has become China’s key issues and academic focuses at current stage.This thesis introduces the research background, reviews and comments the research literature. Then, based on comparative analysis, mainly through empirical analysis based on the experience and supplemented by logic and deductive reasoning, using the basic theories of econometrics, industrial economics, Information economics, economic science and Western economics, by analyzing the ultimate goal of economic growth, this research work puts forward the research framework for the quality of the economic growth with three main dimensions; including economic growth, effectiveness, industrial structure of economic growth and employment rate of economic growth. Finally, this thises analyzes the relationship between the Information industry and the various dimensions of the quality of China’s economic growth.This thesis introduces the development process and the economic characteristics of the Information industry and qualitatively analyzes the impact of Information industry on the economic growth. Based on the Ordinary Least Squares analysis of historical data and the Granger causality test, this research work puts forward the impact of the Information industry on the quality focused on economic growth, analyzes the dimensions of quality of economic growth and then provides a foothold and starting point for discussion in the follow-up sections.The empirical data analysis reveals the stable positive correlations between the economic growth and the inputs of the various production factors. Empirical analysis shows that an input increase of the Information factor can explain 0.5 percent of China’s economic growth or so, which shows that the promotion impact of the Information elements on the China’s economic growth is still significant.The thesis constructs GM (1, N) dynamic model under the gray system theory, get that Information industry closely associates with traditional industries. Then it analyzes sensitivity & lead degree of Information industry. So Information industry will turn to the leading industries.The Dissertation analyses the impact of employment structure from Information industry through theoretical and empirical analysis. Through the theoretical research of structural unemployment, constructs and analyses the structural unemployment model. According to the analysis with the PDLs (Polynomial Distributed Lags) model, it reveals that the employment structure and the current and its following four stages of Information industry development are positively related.更多还原