【作者】 李小萌；

【导师】 忻展红；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 世界经济迅速发展的今天,我们看到经济发展过程中日益加强的“服务化”趋势。相对于西方发达国家,我国服务业的发展水平和高度仍远远落后,加快服务业发展有利于促进生产与消费的协调发展,提升我国产业整体竞争力,全面促进就业,是实现可持续发展的必然要求,也是从根本上提高人民生活水平、促进经济社会和人的全面发展的必然要求。中国共产党十五届五中全会,第十六次、第十七次代表大会,“十一五规划”均明确指出了“发展现代服务业,提高服务业比重和水平”的重要性,提出要在大力发展服务业的同时转变我国经济增长模式——从制造业带动经济发展转变为以服务业带动经济发展。不同经济体有着不同的要素禀赋、生产技术和效率水平,这些经济要素是构成一个国家综合比较优势的基础。本文认为一个国家的产业结构和发展模式应该遵循该国的综合比较优势,最优的产业结构一定是能够与本国经济发展相适应的,与本国要素禀赋、生产技术和效率水平相适应的产业结构,因此我们不能简单把发达国家60%-70%的服务业比重作为自己的目标,而是应该客观认识、分析本国的各类经济要素,找出本国的综合比较优势,并在此基础上讨论：如何发展服务业尤其是生产者服务业、优化产业结构、实现产业间的平衡发展；如何利用我国在要素禀赋和生产技术上的比较优势,定位服务业的发展方向和模式,并充分发挥服务业对国民经济增长的推动作用,实现中国经济持续、快速增长。本文从分析经济增长驱动要素入手,通过构建综合比较优势理论体系研究中国经济增长和产业结构优化问题：认为要素禀赋和生产技术比较优势的充分发挥是中国服务业加速发展和经济持续增长的直接原因,也讨论了影响经济增长的其他因素,如效率优势和后发优势,并把比较优势理论和经济效率、后发优势相结合,提出了综合比较优势理论体系；从实证的角度分析了中国各产业的比较优势、效率优势和后发优势,指出中国整体经济和服务业的发展要走符合“综合比较优势”的新型工业化道路。(?)本文在综述服务经济和产业结构优化理论的基础上,将比较优势理论与经济效率和后发优势相结合,提出了综合比较优势理论体系和综合比较优势发展道路,并从实证的角度讨论了中国的综合比较优势。(?)本文通过构建两部门一般均衡模型指出最优产业结构应当内生于要素禀赋；讨论了生产者服务业对初始要素禀赋的“修正”作用；并从实证的角度核算了1978-2007年中国分产业的资本存量,对比国际数据分析了中国的要素禀赋比较优势,认为目前中国的要素禀赋比较优势在于服务业。(?)本文根据非中性技术进步的概念定义了基于要素投入产出弹性的生产技术比较优势,并从分工和生产技术比较优势的角度分析了服务业分化和快速增长的内生原因,指出了生产者服务业与制造业的互动机制；从实证的角度讨论了中国的生产技术比较优势,认为中国产业层面上的生产技术比较优势在于服务业,这也在一定程度上验证了1978-2007年中国服务业增速超过制造业。(?)本文详细描述了综合比较优势体系的构建思路以及各组分之间相互关系,描述了效率优势和后发优势在综合比较优势体系中的作用和意义,并从实证的角度讨论了现阶段中国的效率优势和后发优势；指出中国的综合比较优势在于服务业,但是由于制造业的效率远远高于服务业,为了保持经济的平稳增长,不宜在服务业效率未得到改善的情况下就人为地大力发展服务业,而应该遵循经济增长的规律、轨道,根据自己国家当期的实际情况,在保持经济持续、稳定增长的同时,着力提高服务业的效率因素,并在此基础上加快服务业和整体经济的发展,将建设资源节约、环境友善型经济做为必须长期坚持的基本方针,走出一条主要依靠技术进步和效率提高驱动的新型工业化道路。(?)本文研究了中国服务业和生产者服务业的发展现状：认为中国服务业已经进入快速发展阶段,但是横向相比服务业总体发展相对滞后,而中国的主导产业仍为制造业；中国已经进入生产者服务业快速发展阶段,但是我国的生产者服务业仍滞后于经济发展进程,生产者服务业在整个服务业中的比重也相对较低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through today’s rapid economic development, we see the’service oriented’trend during the increasing process of economic developing. In contrast to Western developed countries, China’s services is still lagging far behind. Speeding up the services is conducive to promoting the coordination of production and consumption, enhancing the industries’ overall competitiveness, advancing the employment completely, and it is a necessary requirement for the sustainable growth. It is essential when improving living standards fundamentally, promoting economic and social progression and human development completely. The importance of’developing the modern service industry and increasing the proportion and level of services’ was proposed in the Fifth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Congress,16th and 17th National People’s Congress. We need to transform China’s economic growth mode through accelerating the services, from the manufacture driving to the service-driving mode.Different economies have different factor endowments, technology and efficiency, and those economic factors constitute the "comprehensive comparative advantages". The dissertation points out that a country’s industrial structure and developing mode should follow its comprehensive comparative advantage, the optimal industrial structure must be compatible with national economic development, the factor endowments, technology and efficiency. Therefore, we can not simply follow the developed countries’60%-70% of the service. We should analyze the various economic factors objectively, find out the comprehensive comparative advantages, and discuss on this basis,1) how to accelerate services, particularly producer services; 2) how to optimize the industrial structure and achieve the balance between industries; 3) how to use our comparative advantages in factor endowments and technology, for determining the direction and mode of services development, promoting national economic growth, achieving the sustained and rapid growth of China’s economy.The dissertation analyzes the driving factors of economic growth, talks about China’s economic growth and industrial structure optimization by building an integrated theory of "comprehensive comparative advantages". The dissertation finds that the full use of comparative advantage in factor endowment and technology will accelerate China’s services and economy directly. The dissertation also discusses other factors affecting economic growth, such as the efficiency advantage and the late-development advantage, and proposes the "comprehensive comparative advantage" theory by combining the three kinds of advantages. The dissertation analyzes China’s comparative advantage, efficiency advantage and the late-development advantage, and points out that China should follow the new road to industrialization, which meets China’s comprehensive comparative advantages.The dissertation summarizes the service economy and industrial structure optimization theories, and proposes the "comprehensive comparative advantages" theory by combining the three kinds of advantages, comparative advantage, efficiency advantage and the late-development advantage. The dissertation also talks about China’s comprehensive comparative advantages from an empirical perspective.The dissertation points out that the optimal structure should be born within the factor endowments, by building two-sector general equilibrium model, and discusses the effect of producer services on the initial factor endowment amendment. The dissertation accounts China’s 1978-2007 capital stock in different industries from an empirical perspective, and analyzes China’s comparative advantage in factor endowments by comparing with the international data. The dissertation thinks China’s current comparative advantage in factor endowments lies in services.Under the conception of non-neutral technical progress, the dissertation definites the comparative advantage in technology based on the output elasticity of factors. And the dissertation analyzes the endogenous causes of the differentiation and rapid growth in services. The dissertation talks about China’s comparative advantage in technology from an empirical perspective, and points out that China’s comparative advantage in technology lies in services. It verifies the 1978-2007 growth rate of China’s service is higher than manufacturing, to some extent. The dissertation describes the construction of comprehensive comparative advantages, and the mutual relations between its various components, also points out the role and significance of the efficiency advantages and the late-development advantage. The dissertation talks about China’s efficiency advantage and the late-development advantage from an empirical perspective. The dissertation thinks that China’s comprehensive comparative advantages lie in services. But because the efficiency of manufacturing is much higer than services, to maintain the steady economic growth, it would not be appropriate to accelerate the services directly, when the efficiency of services has not been improved. We should follow the rule of economic growth, speed up services after improving the efficiency of services, and make the esource conservation and environmental-friendly economy as the basic principle. China should follow the New road to industrialization, which is drived by technical progress and efficiency increase.The dissertation analyzes the development of China’s services and producer services, and points out,1) China’s services has been in the rapid increasing stage, but the services is lagging behind the economic development, and China’s current leading industry is still manufacturing; 2) China’s producer services has been in the rapid increasing stage, but the producer services in China is still lagging behind the economic development更多还原