【作者】 冯忠祥；

【导师】 刘浩学；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通环境与安全技术， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,随着国家“新农村建设”进程的加快,以及公路建设“村村通”工程日益完善,广大农村人口出行环境和条件得到了明显改善。但由于自然条件和社会经济局限以及交通基础设施的落后,农村人口出行环境仍存在诸多问题,如路网密度低、道路线形和设施差、客运线路延伸度不足、车辆运力结构配置不合理,以及缺少必要的客运站、场、点等。出现上述情况与对农村人口出行特征不了解和对农村客运缺乏科学规划有很大关系,相关硬件和软件配置不协调,不能最大程度地满足当前农村人口出行需求,也难以满足其后续发展的需要。本文在对全国典型区域实地调研的基础上,通过对农村人口出行统计分析,获得其出行的一般规律,并运用非集计理论对农村人口出行特征做深层次研究；同时结合农村自然环境和客运特点,以安全和经济为基本条件,构建多目标、有约束、非线性的运力结构分配模型。研究内容及创新点有以下几方面：(1)在大量实地调研、统计分析的基础上,对比分析各地自然环境、经济条件和相关特点,获得农村人口出行一般特征,以及影响出行强度、出行距离、出行方式和出行时间分布的具体因素；(2)运用非集计理论,建立农村人口出行相关模型,分析个人、家庭和出行属性对出行特征的影响规律,获得各影响因素在相关模型中的具体参数值；运用经济学弹性值理论,分析各影响因素对出行规律的影响程度；依据现代数学理论,推导出农村人口出行距离表达式,并回归出模型参数量化计算公式,建立了出行距离模型。从而获得从“表象”至“内在”,全面、系统反映农村人口出行的具体规律和影响因素；(3)以农村人口出行特征为基础,参考现行客运实际情况,从人—车—路—环境四个方面,分析具有我国农村客运特点的道路运输安全影响因素；以“需求”理论为指导,从宏观和微观两个层面,分析影响农村客运经济性的因素,分别构建了农村客运安全性评价模型和提出适合农村客运经济性的相关计算公式；(4)以客运安全和经济性为目标函数,相关影响因素为约束条件,建立了农村客运运力结构分配模型,该模型主要特点为多目标、多约束和非线性；利用惩罚函数法构造出求解该模型的算法。论文在理论分析的基础上,以某地区为例进行了实例研究,验证了文中相关模型,并指出研究成果在实际运力结构分配中,应根据农村人口出行特征和客运现状,结合具体措施加以推广应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the acceleration of the process for "new countryside construction", project "extend road coverage to every village" has improved steadily, the trip environment and conditions of rural population has been significantly improved. However, due to natural conditions and social economic constraints, as well as the backward transport infrastructure, There are many problems of travel environment for rural population, such as low road network density, poor road alignment, less line extension, the allocation of transport capacity structure is irrational, lack the necessary passenger stations, fields and points. Such a situation relate to do not understand the trip characteristics of rural population and lack of scientific planning for rural passenger transport, the configuration of related hardware and software are incompatible, and can not fulfill the needs of the rural population trip in maximum extent, is also difficult to meet the future development.In this dissertation, on the basis of field research in typical region of the country, obtain the general rule through statistical analysis trip characteristics of rural population; carry out disaggregate model to further study the trip rule of rural population; and combine characteristics of rural passenger transport, take safety and economy as the base to construct multi-objective non-linear and constrained transport capacity structure model. The study and important conclusion is mainly reflected as follows:(1)On the basis of a large number of field research and statistical analysis, obtain the general rule of trip characteristics for rural population, and through comparative analysis natural environment, economic conditions and rural character in each areas, get the specific factors which influences trip intensity, trip distance, trip mode and trip time distribution;(2)Used disaggregate theory to build the rural population trip-related model, then analyze the influence of individuals, families and trip attributes to trip characteristics,get specific parameters of various factors in the relevant model; Use economic elasticity theory to analyze the specific influence of various factors to trip rule; Based on probability theory and advanced mathematics-related knowledge, export rural trip distance formula and get the regression formula for calculating model parameters, then build trip distance model. Thereby get rural population’s trip characteristics which reflect the specific rule and influence factors of rural population trip comprehensively and systematically from "appearance" to "internal"(3)Based on rural population’s trip characteristics and passenger transport status, analyze the rural road transport safety factors from four aspects of human,vehicle,road and environment. Analysis the economic factors in rural passenger transport in the macro and micro level conduct by the "demand" theory, construction the rural passenger safety evaluation model and propose the suitable related formula for calculating the economy of rural passenger transport;(4) In terms of passenger safety and economy as the objective function, some related factors as the constraint conditions, established the distribution model of the capacity structure of rural passenger transport, the principal features of the model are multi-objective, multi-constraint and non-linear; then construct an algorithm for solving the model by penalty functional method.This dissertation conduct a case study with a certain area for example to qualify the model, and point out that in actual capacity structure allocation, the research results should be applied with the combination of some special measures according to the trip characteristics of rural population and the status of passenger transport.更多还原