【作者】 张记伟；

【导师】 许少强；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 东亚各国如新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、印尼、泰国、中国等大多实行过管理浮动汇率制。管理浮动汇率制的一个重要特征是外汇市场压力及外汇市场干预的存在。本文采用汇率弹性指数以及外汇市场压力指数和干预指数作为测度指标,从而对这些国家的外汇市场压力及市场干预特征进行了深入分析。通过对各国的外汇市场压力指数进行分析可知,亚洲金融危机之后,各国的外汇市场存在升值压力的时期要多于存在贬值压力的时期。分析表明,外汇市场压力的产生与经济增长、储蓄投资、国际收支特征等变量有着密切的联系。各国国际收支状况与国际收支结构也对外汇市场压力有重要影响。马来西亚、韩国、新加坡外汇市场压力则更多地受其汇率制度灵活性的主导并反映了外部冲击的影响。在此基础上,本文考察了各国汇率政策的特征及政策效应。亚洲金融危机后,大多东南亚国家都积极积累外汇储备以增强外汇市场干预能力。同时,这些国家倾向于低估本币币值,在本币存在升值压力时采取干预措施以避免本币的大幅升值,各国货币在升值周期的升值速度要慢于在贬值周期的贬值速度。韩国和新加坡的汇率调控值得借鉴,其货币当局对外汇市场的干预倾向于烫平外汇市场的波动性而非抑制本币的升值。新加坡政府并不强力干预本币的升值,但更倾向于在本币存在贬值压力时放任本币的适度贬值。韩国的情况表明,提高汇率弹性,实现货币升值,不仅可以减缓外汇储备增加的压力,还有利于更为独立的货币政策的实行,有助于宏观经济的稳定。本文还考察了外汇市场干预对各国经济增长、通货膨胀、国际收支、货币政策独立性等的影响。实证分析表明,各国的汇率政策在亚洲金融危机后都取得了不同程度的成功。本文最后着重讨论了人民币升值压力下中国的汇率政策选择及其效果。分析表明,汇率制度改革之后人民币汇率的浮动程度已经大大提高。中国货币当局一方面允许本币升值,另一方面仍力图控制本币的升值趋势。中国人民银行在外汇市场进行了干预,并采取了冲销措施,但干预的效果并不理想。为了缓解外汇市场升值压力,必须减少经济主体面临的收入约束和金融发展约束。更多还原

【Abstract】 East Asian countries such as Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, China and other countries, has adopted managed float regime in many periods. An important feature of managed float regime is that there are exchange market pressure and market intervention. In this paper, exchange flexibility index, foreign exchange market pressure index and intervention index are used to analysis exchange market pressure and intervention in these countries.After the Asian financial crisis, the appreciation periods on the foreign exchange market were more than the depreciation periods. Analysis showed that exchange market pressure is closely linked with economic growth, savings and investment, international balance of payments and other variables. The structure of the international balance of payments has a major impact on exchange market pressure. Exchange market pressure of Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore are even more dominated by its flexible exchange rate regime and the impact of external shocks.On this basis, this paper examines the characteristics of national exchange-rate policy and policy effects. After the Asian financial crisis, most Southeast Asian countries are actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the exchange market intervention capabilities. At the same time, these countries tend to underestimate the value of the currency. South Korea and Singapore should be learned for the exchange rate adjustment, their monetary authorities intervene in exchange markets to iron the foreign exchange market volatility rather than curb the appreciation of local currency. Singapore does not strongly interfere with the currency appreciation, but inclines to exist in the currency depreciation pressure, laissez-faire moderate depreciation of the currency. South Korea shows that, the increased exchange rate flexibility to achieve currency appreciation, not only can slow the increasing pressure on foreign reserves, but also can achieve independent monetary policy, contributing to macroeconomic stability. The article also examines the exchange market intervention effects on the national economic growth, inflation, balance of payments, monetary policy independence. Empirical analysis shows that exchange rate policy in these countries after the Asian financial crisis have achieved various degree of success.The end of this article focused on China’s exchange rate policy and its effect under the RMB appreciation pressure. Analysis shows that, after the reform of the RMB exchange regime, exchange rate flexibility has dramatically increased. China’s monetary authority allows the currency appreciation; on the other hand, it is still trying to control the trend of currency appreciation. People’s Bank of China intervened in the foreign exchange market, and has taken write-off measures, but the effect of the intervention is not satisfactory. In order to ease the appreciation pressure on the foreign exchange market, it must reduce the income constraints faced by economic agents and financial development constraints.更多还原