【作者】 詹黎锋；

【导师】 杨建州；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【副题名】基于福建林农调查数据分析

【摘要】 随着国民经济和社会的不断发展,森林资源供给与产业发展矛盾进一步突出,木材不足的局面更加严重,目前,我国年均净消耗森林资源3.65亿m3,木材供给缺口达1—1.5亿m3,森林资源的压力比以往任何时期都更加严峻。现阶段我国木材综合利用率仅为60%,与发达国家的80%以上相比有很大的差距,因此,积极发动农户造林投资,对于解决我国木材短缺问题,保护生态林资源,促进我国农村经济和社会发展都具有重要作用。改革开放以来,随着经济体制和投资体制改革的逐渐深入,特别是林改后,由于包山到户,林业投资主体发生了显著变化。据2007年林业统计,已经承包到户的林地达6.6亿亩,占集体林业用地的27.5%,接近三成的林地已经进行了林权改革,农户在新的投资主体结构中已占据主导地位,成为林业投资的基本主体,其投资能力和倾向对林业投资产生较大影响。当前,农户造林投资对林业经济增长的驱动力和拉动力还明显不足,主要原因是存在影响农户造林投资行为的诸多因素障碍。本研究立足于福建实际,通过对林区农户问卷调查,结合相关文献资料,在分析农户造林投资行为表征的基础上,对影响农户造林投资行为因素进行理论分析,找出影响农户造林投资行为因素。这些影响因素主要是：(1)农户主体特征因素,主要包括：户主年龄、户主受教育程度、户主是否党员、户主是否村干部、家庭上学人数、劳动力数量、非农就业比例、家庭总收入、上年林业收入、工资性收入；(2)生产经营特征因素,主要包括：经营林种数、经营树种、地块数、林地面积、离公路平均距离、有未成熟林、有无林权证、土地肥沃程度、有无地表水、坡度、对林业是否熟悉；(3)外部环境特征因素,主要包括：资金获得性、林产品销售情况、林产品价格、市场信息、林业有无前途、林权纠纷、林地易得性、采伐限额、政府补贴、林业税费、林地使用费。同时,为了解和把握这些因素的影响,对影响因素进行了描述性分析,以期对这些可能影响因素,在造林投资中的影响程度,及如何影响有个基本的了解和把握。在此基础上,构建研究模型,具体应用Logit模型和多元线性模型,借助SPSS软件,进一步对影响因素进行模型实证分析：用Logit模型来筛选影响农户造林投资行为因素,用多元线性模型来分析各因素如何影响、影响重要性,以及地区因素差异性比较。通过实证分析,进一步认识和理解影响农户造林投资行为因素,为政府制定相关制度政策提供参考,以发挥微观主体投入潜力和优势,提高农户造林投资水平。论文结构共分八个部分：第一部分,引言：阐述论文研究背景意义、相关研究观点评述、研究目标、解决的关键问题、研究方法及技术路线；第二部分,农户造林投资基本状况分析：对福建省造林总体状况,及南平、三明和龙岩三地区造林投资基本情况进行分析,指出目前农户造林投资存在的主要问题；第三部分,农户造林投资行为表征分析：在了解农户造林投资现状基础上,分析农户造林投资行为的一般特征,并用经济学理论加以解释分析；第四部分,影响农户造林投资行为因素理论分析框架：对影响农户造林投资行为因素进行理论分析,找出影响因子,并试图构建模型以分析其作用机理及理论价值；第五部分,影响农户造林投资行为因素描述性分析：对影响因素进行描述性分析,以便对影响因素能有全面的把握和认识；第六部分,影响农户造林投资行为因素模型实证分析：分析各因素影响程度、如何影响、影响重要性,以及地区因素影响比较分析；第七部分,农户造林投资行为激励与优化：根据分析结果,提出相关政策建议,以优化和激励农户造林投资水平和积极性；第八部分,结论与讨论。通过对影响农户造林投资行为因素的实证研究,得到以下基本结论：(1)通过理论分析和模型实证筛选,得到了农户造林投资行为影响因素,主要影响因素为：户主受教育程度、劳动力、家庭总收入、家庭林业收入、工资性收入、林地面积、对林业经营是否熟悉、风险意识、资金获得性、采伐限额、林产品销售情况11个因素的影响。(2)运用多元线性模型分析,获得了各因素的具体影响,从分析结果来看,各影响因素一致性与显著性水平主要表现为：①一致性水平：除劳动力、林地面积、风险意识3因素作用与预期不一致外,其它因素影响与预期一致；②显著性水平：工资性收入与资金获得性2因素影响不显著；劳动力与采伐限额2因素影响显著性一般；其它因素影响很显著。(3)影响农户造林投资行为因素重要性分析,其重要性从大到小的顺序是：劳动力、林业收入、农户受教育程度、对林业是否熟悉、林产品销售情况、地区因素、林地面积、风险意识、资金获得性、采伐限额、工资性收入。(4)不同地区所受到的因素影响各不相同：从总体上看,南平、三明、龙岩三地区农户造林投资行为影响存在差异,也正由于这种差异性,造成了不同地区农户造林投资行为影响的地区性差异性。(5)从各因素影响比较来看,其影响差异主要表现以下几个方面：①南平地区主要是受劳动力、林业收入、林地面积、风险意识、采伐限额5因素影响；三明地区主要是受林业收入、对林业是否熟悉、资金获得性3因素影响；龙岩地区主要是受林业收入、对林业是否熟悉、风险意识、资金获得性4因素影响；②户主受教育程度、工资性收入、林产品销售情况3因素,对3地区影响都不显著；③劳动力、林地面积、采伐限额3因素,对三明和龙岩2地区影响均不显著,而对南平地区影响很显著;④对林业熟悉程度、资金获得性2因素对南平影响不显著,而对三明、龙岩影响很显著；⑤风险意识只对三明影响不显著,而对南平、龙岩影响很显著；⑥在所有影响因素中,只有林业收入因素对三地区都具有显著性影响。从以上各地区影响因素比较分析来看,三明地区与龙岩地区影响情况较为接近,而与南平地区影响情况差异较大。(6)从模型常数项比较分析上看：南平、三明、龙岩三地区影响模型常数项分别是0.503、0.455、0.275,明显存在的差异,也反映出了三地区的农户造林投资行为存在差异性,反映了不同地区间林业的生产结构、技术以及地理条件、气候等方面的差异性,从而导致了不同地区间农户造林投资行为上的差异性。最后,针对实证研究结果,提出了激励和优化农户造林投资行为相关政策建议,以强化积极因素,消除不利因素影响,提高农户造林投资积极性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of national economy and social, the contradiction between the supply of forest resources and industry development is becoming increasingly conspicuous, and the insufficient of wood supply being more serious. Currently, it is more dangerous durring this present period that forest resources have been exhausted 365 million m3 on the average annual, there are 100-150 million m3 timber shortages, and the pressure caused by the timber demand on the forest resources in a tight situation. Timber comprehensive utilization rate have only 60% during this present period, having huge difference with developed country. Therefore, it have played an important role on solving the preblem of timber shorages and the protection of ecological forest resources for the development of rural economy and social throght starting up afforestation investment actively. Since the reform and opening policy, with the deepen reform of economic system and investment system, especially after the reform of the system of collective forest rights, the subject of investment have significant changed because of national forest property right system reform. According to statistic in 2007, forest area of contract households reach up to 660 million acres, taking up collective forest to 27.5%, and about three-tenth forestland having been the reform of collective forest right.Farmer households have taken up dominant in the new subject of investment structure, and become the basic subject of investment. The ability and propensity of investment had considerable influence on forest investment. Resently, it is clearly insufficient on driving up economic growth by afforestation investment of farmer households, what the many main factors that makes progress or success for afforestation investment of farmer households difficult is the major cause.The study is based on the actual situation of Fujian Province, throght questionnaire survey of farmer households and combination of the corresponding literature, based on behavioral characteristics analysis of farmers’ afforestation investment, and theoretical analysis of the main factors of the impact on farmers’afforestation investment, find out what the main factors of the impact on farmers’afforestation investment behavior, including:(1)the factors of farmers’subject characteristics, including age of household head, the education level of household head, yes or no CPC member, yes or no a village cadre, schooling members, the number of farm laborers, income of farmer households, forset income per capita in the last year, wages income;(2).the factors of production and operation characteristics, including the number of forest species, the number of forestland plot, Area of forestland, distance from family, immature forest, yes or no forest property right card, fertility of forestland, whether or not surface water, a gradient of forestland, be familiar with forestry; (3) the factors of external environment characteristics, including the source of fund, the acquisitive for fund, the sale of forest product in market, the price of forest product, market information, the prospect of forestry, dissension ponderance of forest ownership, the risk awareness of farmers, easy available of forestland, policy of logging quota, policy of charging forestland rent, government subsidies, forestry. expenses of taxation. Meanwhile, in order to understand and grasp these infrencing factors, descriptive statistics related to these infrencing factors, which we have a basic of understanding and grasp on the importance of the impact factors on farmers’afforestation investment. On base of these analysis, setting up the reseach model of Logisitic model and Multiple Linear Regression model and using the SPSS analysis software to carry quantitative analysis towards the factors which influence farmers’ afforestation investment, to seeing about whether these factors come into being and the degree of each function effect and importantive respectively, and carry research on the different areas investment respectively and the carry on contrast analysis.At last, according to the result of the theoretical and empirical analysis, policy suggestions were put forward with the target carrying out.This paper is divided into eight major part, as follow:The first part, introduction, expounds on the meaning of research background, opinion review of related research, research objectives and key issues to be resolved, the research methods, techniques and content of the framework route. The second part, mainly analyzes the present situation and the problem of farmers’afforestation investment. The third part, focuses on the behavior characteristics of farmers’afforestation investment, and that is, from an overall grasp on the behavior of farmers’afforestation investment to further analyze and expound by economy theory. The fourth part, builds the frame of the theoretical analysis on the infrencing factors of farmers’afforestation investment. The fifth part, on basis of the survey data of farmers in county of Fujian province, descriptive analysis related to the affecting factors of farmers’afforestation investment. The sixth part, apply Logit model and Multiple Linear Regression model to analyze on the affecting factors of the farmers’ afforestation investment by establishing econometric model. The seventh part, according to the model conclusion, several suggestions for guiding farmer households to invest actively were proposed. The egihtth part, summarizes the Pending questions for further discussion.The results of the study show that, as follow:(1)The factors which influence the farmers’afforestation investment behavior can be divided into these types, as follows:education level of household head, the number of farm laborers, income of farmer households, forset income per capita in the last year, wages income, Area of forestland, how to be familiar with forestry, risk of afforestation intestment, the acquisitive for fund, the sale of forest product in market, policy of logging quota.(2)Based on the Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression model, and acquiring every affecting factors, as follows:First, the factor of farmer laborers, area of forestland and risk awareness are different of that of expectation, but others being. Second, the factors of wage income and the acquisitive for funds had not significant influence on investment afforestation, the factors of farmer laborers and logging quota had a little, but others affecting significantly.Tird,the factor of regional dummy variable having significant influence on afforestation investment, showing that there are difference affecting from three regional because of regional difference factor, since the difference of management, geographical conditions, climate, and so on, leading to the difference of farmers’ afforestation investment behavior, but modest on the range.(3)According to the importance degree, the factors which influence the peasants’ forest investment behavior as follow:the number of farm laborers, forset income per capita in the last year, education level of household head, be familiar with forestry, the sale of forest product in market, regional factor, area of forestland, the risk awareness of farmer, the acquisitive for fund, policy of logging quota, wages income.(4)Generally speaking, farmers’afforestation, investment behavior lies in different regions in Nanping, Sanming and Longyan, and It’s just this regional different factor resulting in different impact on investment behavior in different regions.(5)omparative analysis on different factors, as follow:First, the five factors of farmer laborers, forest income, area of forest land, risk awareness of farmers, policy of logging quota, which influence farmers’ afforestation investment in Nanping, the factors of forest income, being familiar with forest and the. acquisitive for funds in Sanming, the factors of forest income, being familiar with forest, risk awareness, the acquisitive for funds in Longyan. Second, the three factors of education level of household head, wage income, the sale of forest product in market are not significant influence. Tird, the three factors of farmer laborers, area of forestland, policy of logging quota are not significant influence in Sanming and Longyan, but being significant influence in Nanping;Fourth, the two factors of being familiar with forest and the acquisitive for funds are not significant influence in Nanping, but being significant influence in Sanming and Longyan. Fifth, the factors of risk awareness of farmers are not significant influence in Sanming, but being significant influence in Nanping and Longyan. Finally, all of the factors, only the factors of forest income are significant influence in three regions. To sum up, the condition of Sanming is similar to Longyan, but being different from Nanping.(6) Comparative analysis on contants, the three regions are different appearantly, it means that the difference of management, technogly, struture, geographical conditions, climate, and so on, and leading to the difference of farmers’afforestation investment behavior in different regiona.Finally, based on the results of the empirical analysis, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures, improving farmers’ afforestation investment effectively.更多还原