【作者】 刘飞翔；

【导师】 刘伟平；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【副题名】基于福建省燃料乙醇的实证研究

【摘要】 能源消费增长强劲态势与传统化石资源有限性间的矛盾,对一国或地区经济发展水平与经济增长模式有着深远影响,能源安全、替代能源等正成为全球范围内的核心战略问题,满足日益增长的能源消费需求是中国现代化进程中的重大命题。如何提高能源消耗总量及利用效率,选择一条清洁环保的能源道路迫在眉睫,通过加快发展生物质能这一绿色能源产业,对解决能源短缺,倡导生态文明,建设生态家园具有重要的战略意义。1990年以来,福建省能源生产投资建设逐步加强,但能源供给仍跟不上能源需求的快速增长,导致供需缺口加大,对外省调入及进口能源依赖性强,能源安全供应压力显现。而福建省拥有发展生物质能源的优势和特色,具有地理气候独特、光热资源充足、生态环境优美、技术人才雄厚、生物质资源丰富、政策支持等优势,燃料乙醇发展空间更是巨大。政府应借鉴国际先进经验,明确生物质能产业发展的战略定位,提出具体的促进策略,制定相应的法律、法规或条例,完善政策扶持体系,加大对公共技术研发的投入,引导市场需求和推动发展,考虑对传统化石燃料课征碳税达成国家减量目标,同时通过适应性补贴等奖励诱因与绿色权证交易等制度安排,扩大生物质能源供应网络,实现新能源生产、运输、采购、贸易及利用的全球化,构建有竞争性的产业链,对生物质能源发展进行整合性推进,提供其发展的重要驱动力。近年来,尽管生物质能源这一新兴产业引起社会重大关注与热点探讨,但在学术研究领域,对如何运用产业经济学理论促进其产业化发展方面尚缺乏系统研究。本文正是基于此提出研究思路,以福建这一典型区域和甘蔗、薯类等燃料乙醇产业为主要研究对象,具有重要的意义。本研究的思路为：以能源安全问题与生态文明崛起为切入点,引发对新能源生存机理与生物质能源政策的思索。通过对国内外生物质能、激励性规制理论与实践、国内外对可再生能源规制与激励研究动态及成果的综合评述,结合福建能源消费状况、供需缺口分析及发展生物质能源的优势与潜力为研究背景,强调走绿色能源道路是福建省社会经济发展的必然选择和在生物质新兴产业发展中政府激励性规制的重要性。并基于粮食安全视角下对福建生物质能发展的审视,通过生物质能源推广影响粮食安全的机理分析,支持政府非粮原料产业规制方向的政策思路。接着在福建生物燃料的主要作物及技术经济分析的基础上,建议福建以利用甘蔗、甘薯、木薯发展燃料乙醇为突破口,加快发展生物质绿色能源产业。最后通过对生物质能产业政府规制与激励的主要工具选择、国外生物质能政策推进路线及典型案例分析,构建出福建生物质能源政策永续发展模型与指标体系,对福建生物质能政策整体绩效做出评价,就如何加强相关能源政策的拟定与推动提出对策建议。按照研究思路,得到以下结论:一、福建能源供需缺口。福建省是一个能源资源相对短缺的省份,随着福建省经济快速增长,福建省能源消费总量年均递增6.83%,目前全省能源自给率只能达到40%,并且呈逐年下降的趋势,能源供需矛盾显现。通过调入量时间序列的线性回归模型,显示福建能源缺口每年以506.32万吨标准煤的速度增长。特别是近几年,伴随工业化和城镇化进程的加快,钢铁、机械、化工、水泥等重工业部门的发展,能源需求快速增长,能源不足成为常态,能源供求矛盾更出突出。改变传统能源路径依赖,发展循环经济,建设节约型社会任重而道远。二、玉米价格与乙醇价格的因果关系。运用格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型来研究玉米价格与乙醇价格的因果关系,说明乙醇价格和玉米价格两者的关系既无长期因果联系也无短期因果联系。即乙醇价格的上升并不必然导致玉米价格的上升,意味着也不一定会带来玉米生产积极性的提高和产量的增加,反而由于对有限土地资源的竞争加剧了用于食物链的粮食供需矛盾,从而带来粮食危机。福建生物质燃料的原料来源非常广泛,只要合理开发,发展生物能源不但不会对粮食安全构成威胁,反而能在一定程度上保障粮食安全。三、福建生物燃料的主要作物及技术经济分析。研究对福建生物燃料产业资源条件,福建利用甘蔗、木薯发展燃料乙醇的经济技术,燃料乙醇的项目效益,不同原料的能源效率及国内外竞争力比较,福建生物燃料产业发展障碍因素以及福建生物燃料产业发展的路径选择进行综合分析,建议福建以能源甘蔗等糖类原料和甘薯、木薯等非口粮的淀粉类原料为主,以利用甘蔗、甘薯、木薯发展燃料乙醇为突破口,加快发展生物质绿色能源产业,保证原料的需求,建立燃料乙醇的产业体系和设备制造基础,推进纤维素燃料乙醇的工业化进程。制订发展生物质能源的激励政策,明确甘蔗、薯类乙醇在非粮燃料乙醇中的主体地位。四、福建生物质能源政策永续发展模型建构与评价。针对生物质能源政策的特点,建立一个由四个层次指标构建的福建生物质能源政策永续发展评价指标体系,由1个一级指标(生物质能源政策永续性发展)、4个二级指标(生物质能决策系统科学性、生物质能供给系统稳定性、生物质能消费系统持续性、生物质能科技研发与教育)、8个三级指标、22个四级指标构成的评价体系,尽可能准确地反映生物质能源政策内部构成、发展现状和变化趋势,努力揭示生物质能源政策永续性发展的主要本质特征和内在规律。评价显示福建生物质能政策整体绩效尚处于永续发展的起步阶段,发展的道路还很长,政府在生物质能产业有效规制与激励方面,加强能源市场机制建设与发展绿色能源消费等政策,应是未来最优先推动的永续能源策略之一。此外,推动生物质能教育宣传与科技研发、加大政府公共研发、强化公众参与、发展人力资本素质也是未来的努力方向。五、对策与建议。结合福建省省情和资源特点,提出可行的对策建议：建立福建省生物质能产业宏观决策支持系统；采取激励性政策,培育生物质能源市场,推行市场诱因工具,鼓励绿色能源消费投资；加强能源市场机制建设,拓展交易网络空间；组建生物燃料龙头企业,探索适合行业特点的经营管理模式；创新生物质能源科技研发与教育等保障措施。基于上述研究,本文的创新主要表现在以下三方面：在理论上,重视政府能源政策创新在生物质能这一新能源产业成长中的重要促进作用,并依据国外生物质能产业兴起中政府对产业适当的管制和经济诱因推动的成熟经验,运用产业经济学的产业规制与产业政策理论,从政府激励性规制的角度对福建燃料乙醇产业发展做整合性分析。在研究方法上,主要体现在：所进行实证分析的数据均来自权威的年鉴数据和项目调研数据,通过时间序列的线性回归模型,显示福建能源缺口；借助格兰杰因果检验方法和误差修正模型来研究玉米价格与乙醇价格的因果关系；采用比较研究的方法,对福建生物燃料的主要作物及技术经济分析；通过案例分析,对主要生物质能发达国家的技术路线图分析、总结与获得启示；构建生物质能源政策永续性评价指标体系,通过专家问卷法确定各指标权重值,选用综合评分法评价福建生物质能政策整体绩效。在研究成果上,从市场机制中生物质产业组织方式、市场准入制度、价格激励性管制、社会性管制四个领域展开政府规制与激励的主要工具选择研究,提出生物质产业激励的方向、手段和领域,并结合福建省省情和资源特点,为政府生物质能产业政策拟订提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The contradiction between the strong situation of energy consumption growth and the limitation of traditional fossil resource seriously influenced economic development level and economic growth mode of one country or area, energy security and alternative energy is becoming the core strategy problem in the global scale, meeting the growing demand for energy consumption is the major proposition in Chinese modernization process. How to improve total energy consumption and utilization efficiency,choose a clean and green path imminent, by accelerating the development of biomass energy in this green energy industry, had important strategic significance of solving energy shortage, promoting ecological civilization, and building an ecological homestead.Since 1990, in Fujian investment and construction of energy production strengthened gradually,but energy supply was still not keep up with the rapid growth of energy demand,leading to increasing gap between supply and demand, strong dependence on the energy that was transferred from other provinces and import, revealing supply pressure of energy security. However, Fujian has the advantages and characteristics of developing biomass energy,has advantages such as,unique geography and climate, sufficient light and heat resources, beautiful ecological environment, abundant technical talents,rich biomass resources and policy support, and room for developing fuel ethanol is huge. The government should draw on advanced international experience, define strategic orientation of developing biomass industry, put forward concrete promotion strategies, make corresponding laws, rules or regulations, perfect policy support system, increase investment in public technology research and development, guide market demand and promote the development, consider to levy a carbon tax for traditional fossil fuels to achieve the national emission reduction targets, at the same time, through rewarding incentive such as adaptive subsidies and institutional arrangement such as Green Warrants Trading, expand supply network of biomass energy, achieve the new energy production, transportation, purchase, trade and utilization, build a competitive industry chain, integrated the development of biomass energy, provide an important driving force for developing.In recent years, despite a rising industry---biomass energy has aroused social great concern and hot discussion, in academic research field; applied industry economics to based on the ideas, the dissertation went on. It was of great significance to study on the typical area of Fujian sugar cane, potato and other fuel ethanol industry as the main object.The idea of this dissertation is as follow:Taking the issue of energy security and rise of Ecological Civilization as a starting point leads to the consideration of the survival mechanisms of the new energy and biomass energy policy. By the comprehensive review of biomass energy theory and practice of incentive regulation and research trends and achievements of regulation and incentive of renewable energy at home and abroad, the dissertation according to conditions of energy consumption, analysis of gap between supply and demand and advantages and potential of developing biomass energy in Fujian as background, emphasized to take the green energy path is an inevitable choice for social and economic development in Fujian and the importance of government incentive regulation in the rising biomass industry. At the same time, this dissertation examined the development of biomass energy in Fujian based on perspective of food security, through mechanism analyzing of promotion of biomass energy impact on food security, supported the policy idea that the direction of the government’s regulation of non-grain raw materials industry. And then, based on the main crops of bio-fuel in Fujian and technical and economic analysis, this dissertation suggested Fujian to take advantage of sugar cane, sweet potato and cassava developing fuel ethanol as a starting point to accelerate the development of biomass green energy industry. Finally, this dissertation through choosing the main tool of government’s regulation and incentives of biomass industry and analyzing forward line and typical case foreign biomass policy, built sustainable developing model and index system of Fujian biomass energy policy, evaluated the whole performance of biomass energy policy, put forward suggestions that about how to strengthen formulation and promotion of the related energy policy. The conclusion of this dissertation is according to research ideas:1、the gap between supply and demand of energy in FujianFujian is a province of a relative shortage of energy resources, with the rapid economic growth in Fujian, the total energy consumption increase 6.83% every year, at present the self-sufficiency rate of energy only reach 40%, there is a declining trend year by year, and appear apparently the contradiction between supply and demand of energy.This dissertation through linear regression model of transferred amount time series showed that the gap of energy is increasing 5.0632 million tons every year in Fujian. Especially in recent years, with accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization and development of heavy industry departments such as steel, machinery, chemicals and cement, the demand of energy grows rapidly, the shortage becomes normal, the contradiction between supply and demand becomes more and more apparent. There is a long way to change the path dependence of traditional energy, develop circular economy and build a economic society.2、Causality between corn prices and ethanol pricesThis dissertation applied granger causality test and error correction model to study the causality between corn prices and ethanol prices, explained that there is neither the long-term causality nor the short-term causality between corn prices and ethanol prices. That is, the ascension of ethanol prices unnecessarily leads to the ascension of corn prices that means unnecessarily leads to the improvement of productive enthusiasm and increase of outputs of corn, but because of the competition for limited land resources, aggravate supply and demand of food for the food chain, and then bring about the food crisis. There was a wide range of raw materials of Biomass fuel sources. As long as we exploit and develop bio-energy, not only doesn’t threaten food security, but ensure food security to a certain degree.3、The main crops of bio-fuel in Fujian and technical and economic analysisThis dissertation comprehensively analyzed resources and conditions of bio-fuels industry in Fujian, the economic technology of Fujian used sugarcane, cassava to develop fuel ethanol, effectiveness of fuel ethanol project, the energy efficiency of different raw materials, competitiveness at home and abroad, barriers of developing bio-fuels industry in Fujian and path choice of developing bio-fuels industry in Fujian suggested Fujian should take sugar raw such as energy cane and raw materials of non-starch rations in main, took advantage of sugarcane, sweet potato, cassava developing fuel ethanol as a starting point, accelerated the development of biomass green energy industry, ensured the demand for raw materials, built industrial system and equipment manufacturing base of fuel ethanol, promoted the industrialization process of cellulosed fuel ethanol, made the incentive policies of developing biomass energy, defined sugar cane ethanol, potato ethanol in the dominant position of non-grain fuel ethanol.4、Construction and evaluation of sustainable development model of biomass energy policyAccording to the characteristics of biomass energy policy, this dissertation built a construction and evaluation of sustainable development model of biomass energy policy that was made up of four-level indexes,which was a Evaluation System that is made up of 1 first-level index (sustainability development of biomass energy policy),4 second-level indexes (scientific of Biomass energy decision-making system, stability of Biomass energy supply system, continuity of Biomass energy consumption system, research and development and education of biomass technology),8 third-level indexes and 22 fourth-level indexes, reflect the internal structure, developing status and trends of biomass energy policy as accurate as possible, reveal main characteristics and inherent laws of sustainable development of biomass energy policy. Evaluation showed that the whole performance of biomass energy policy in Fujian is still at the initial stage of sustainable development, and there was a long way to go. Government is one of the highest priorities of promoting the sustainable energy strategies in the effective regulation and incentives of biomass energy industry and policy such as Strengthening the construction of energy market mechanisms and developing green energy consumption. In addition, promoting Education, advocacy and research and development of technology of biomass, increasing the government public research and development, strengthening public participation, developing the human capital quality is also a direction for future work.5、Countermeasures and suggestionscombining with characteristics conditions and resources of Fujian Province, the feasible suggestions were put forward:first, we should build Macro-decision support system for biomass industry in Fujian; second, we should adopt to incentive policy and cultivate biomass energy market; third, we should carry out Market incentives Tools and encourage investment and consumption of green energy; forth, we should strengthen the construction of energy market mechanisms and expand trading cyberspace; fifth, we should make up bio-fuels leading enterprises and probe for Management model which is Suitable for the characteristic of industry; sixth, we should innovate research and development and education of biomass energy technology. Based on the above-mentioned study, the main innovative points in this dissertation were three aspects in the following:In theory:this dissertation paid attention to the important promoting role that the innovation of Government’s energy policy plays in the growth of the new biomass energy industry, and based on government’s Proper control of the industry and mature experience economic incentive promotion in the rise of foreign biomass energy industry, applied to industrial regulation and industrial policy theory of industrial economics,analyzed integrated fuel ethanol industry development in Fujian from the perspective of government incentive regulation.In the study way, The data for empirical analysis come from the Authoritative Almanac data and project research data, by the linear regression model of time series shows the energy gap in Fujian, using granger causality test and error correction model to study the causality between corn prices and ethanol prices, using the method of comparative study to analyze the main crops of bio-fuel in Fujian and Technical and Economic, by case analysis, analyzing, summarying up and inspiring from the, biomass energy technology roadmap of the major developed countries, building a construction and evaluation of sustainable development model of biomass energy policy, by expert questionnaire determining the value of the index weight, using the integrated scoring to evaluate the whole performance of biomass energy policy in Fujian.In the result:this dissertation studied the main tools for government regulation and incentives from biomass industry organization, the market access system, the price incentive regulation, social control four area in market mechanism, put forward the direction, means and area of biomass industry incentives, combining with characteristics conditions and resources of Fujian Province, provided Reference for making government biomass industry policy.更多还原