【作者】 孟祺；

【导师】 朱晶；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在经济学上,长期以来存在于美国和中国这样的经济共生现象非常明显。中国通过廉价的劳动力资源禀赋参与国际分工,实行出口导向的政策扩大对外贸易,从而获得巨大的贸易利益和积累了巨额贸易盈余。这些外汇储备主要借给美国使用。从货物贸易上看,作为出口目的地,美国占中国出口的接近20%,如果再加上香港的转口贸易,美国市场占到中国整个出口超过30%。美国为中国提供市场和作为贸易顺差来源国,中国为美国提供资金,两者之间形成了一种失衡中的平衡。对于这种失衡的发展,也就是不平衡的持续性,学术界有两种观点争论：可持续和不可持续。那么,中美经济共生的现象是否可持续?要回答这个问题,应该从两个方面考虑：中国是否继续保持对美国的贸易顺差和中国是否为美国提供金融支持。而是否提供金融支持取决于中国是否持续保持对美国的贸易顺差。如果中美之间贸易是平衡的,中国也就不需要大量购买美国国债,美国也就没有借债的资金购买中国的产品。如果中美贸易不平衡具有持续性,中美两国的经济共生还会继续。而分析中美贸易失衡的发展趋势首先要从贸易不平衡的原因入手。理论界也不断探讨中美贸易失衡的原因,分别从统计差异、人民币汇率和美国的出口管制等等方面展开分析,其中汇率论是讨论的重点,但人民币的升值并没有导致中国对美国贸易顺差的减少,反而增加的幅度更大。从产业转移的角度分析中美贸易不平衡的根源,这一观点学界已经达成共识,认为随着国际分工的不断转移,发达国家和地区的产业为了降低成本,在全球进行资源配置,中国由于开放的贸易政策和低廉的劳动力成本,承接了国际产业转移,导致了中国出口规模的扩大。不仅仅出口规模,中国的出口结构也发生了很大变化。由于很多制成品最终组装一般是属于劳动密集型的特点。中国依靠劳动力资源禀赋,较多集中在加工组装部分。美国在技术密集和资本密集型产品上具有比较优势,因此导致美国主要在关键核心部分工序的生产。在中国对美国的最终产品出口中,不仅仅有中国加工组装的附加值,还包括从国外进口的中间产品,而且这些进口中间产品占有很大比例,因此中国对美国的顺差不仅仅只是中国的贸易收益。本研究总目标是在利用新的计算方法衡量中国对美国出口的垂直专业化程度的基础上,从理论和实证上检验中美贸易不平衡与垂直专业化分工的关系。接着在考察垂直专业分工影响因素变化的基础上,分析中美贸易不平衡的发展趋势,对中美之间的这种经济关系的可持续性作出判断,为中国采取对应的措施提供参考。研究内容一：关于中国对美国出口垂直专业化程度的计算。该部分在分析现有研究方法的基础上,提出了新的测度垂直专业化程度的计算方法,这个方法可以更精确的计算出口中包含的中间产品的比例。利用这个方法,结合中国的投入产出表和分离的贸易数据,本研究计算了中国对美国出口的垂直专业化程度,结果表明中国对美国出口的垂直专业化程度非常高,地理分解的结果表明来自于美国的垂直专业化程度非常低,来自于东亚地区的垂直专业化程度相当高。这些结构都表明垂直专业化导致了中美贸易不平衡。研究内容二：垂直专业化与中美贸易不平衡关系的实证研究。国际垂直分工导致生产工序在国际间的转移,由于各国在比较优势、规模经济和交易成本等禀赋上的不一致性,就导致了贸易不平衡的产生。该部分主要的研究工作就是利用前面对垂直专业化程度的计算结果,根据理论分析的框架分析垂直专业化与中美贸易不平衡的关系,主要从三个层次展开：对美国的垂直专业化、与美国的垂直专业化以及与东亚地区的垂直专业化,验证了三个假说。即研究假说一：随着中国参与国际分工程度的提高,中国对美国出口垂直专业化程度相应大幅提高,垂直专业化导致了中国对美国的贸易不平衡；研究假说二：出口美国的垂直专业化程度虽然非常高,但在中国出口中,从美国进口的中间产品所占的比例较小,也就是说与美国的垂直专业分工对中美贸易不平衡的影响非常小；研究假说三：对东亚地区的垂直专业化分工导致了中美贸易不平衡。研究内容三：中美贸易不平衡的发展趋势研究。本部分首先分析了垂直专业化的影响因素,FDI显著的导致了垂直专业化。由于流入中国的FDI主要是成本驱动型的,随着中国劳动力成本的不断上升和其它成本的增加,垂直型的FDI不断减少。另外由于垂直专业化并没有带来显著的溢出效应,反而对内资企业的技术进步有挤出效应,在制造业FDI流入比例不断减少的情况,中美贸易失衡将逐步走向贸易平衡,中美经济共生现象不可持续；最后根据东南亚国家的案例,了解垂直专业化导致的贸易不平衡的发展方向。虽然贸易失衡将逐步走向贸易平衡,但在世界金融危机的情况贸易保护主义的抬头,会使得中美贸易摩擦的压力加大。短期内中国应该增加从美国的中间产品进口的比例以消除贸易结构的错位,进而减少贸易摩擦。长期上看中国应该提高国内自主创新能力,提高出口的国内增加值,使中国巨大的出口规模能真正的对经济增长起到作用。另外扩大内需,减少对外部市场的依赖。更多还原

【Abstract】 In economics, there has been existed to economic interdependence. Such as the United States and China. Because of the richest labor resources endowment, china talked part in the international labor division, carried out the policy of export-oriented trade, gained enormous benefits of trade and accumulated a huge trade surplus. These foreign exchange reserves lend to United States. Trade in goods take account of the trade view, as an export destination for China, the United States accounted for nearly 20%, if added the re-export trade in Hong Kong, the United States market accounted for more than 30% of the total export. The United States provide the market and the trade surplus to china and china provide the funds to the unite states, the development of such an imbalance, that is, the continuity of the imbalance, the academic has two views:sustainable and unsustainable.Tithe situation of Sino-US economic symbiosis is sustainable? To answer this question, it should be considered from two aspects:whether the Chinese continue to maintain trade surplus from the United States and China continue to provide financial support for United States,Whether or not provide of financial support depends on the Chinese continue to maintain a trade surplus from the United States. If Sino-US trade is balanced, it does not require Chinese to buy a large number of American bonds, the United States there will be not borrowing funds for the purchase of the Chinese products. If Sino-US trade imbalance is continuing, the economic symbiosis between the two countries will continue.To analysis the development trend of Sino-US trade imbalance, first of all know about the reasons of the trade imbalance. Theorists have been exploring the causes of Sino-US trade imbalance, including the statistical differences, the RMB exchange rate and the United States export controls, and so on. The RMB exchange rate is the focus of the discussion, but the appreciation of the RMB didn’t reduce the trade surplus, but a greater increase. From the industrial transfer thinking about the reasons of the Sino-US trade imbalance, the academic opinion has been reached a consensus that with the international labor division development, in order to reduce costs, the industries in developed countries and regions continuous transfer, allocation the resources around the world, because of Chinese open trade policies and low labor costs, following the international industrial shift, resulted in the expansion of Chinese exports. Not only export scale, China’s export structure has changed greatly. The final assembly of manufactured goods is often relatively labor-intensive technology in the characteristics of property. Rely on China’s labor resources endowments, more concentrated in the processing aspect. The factor endowments and comparative advantages determined the United States more focused on the core components of production, or quit from the manufactured goods which basic technology is relatively sophisticated production process. Because of the final product exported to the United States, not only contain the added value aspect in China, but also the added value which imports the parts and intermediate products in other countries, so China’s trade surplus with the United States is contain other countries surplus transferred.Although view from the appearance, the trade deficit of the United States was mainly from China, how much was obtained by Chinese? This needs to measure the source of imbalance in the base of country and product, so we can know the relationship between vertical specialization and the Sino-US trade imbalance, and accordance to the changes of influencing factors for the vertical specialization, analysis the sustainable of the Sino-US trade imbalance. The overall objective of this study is on the basis of measuring the extent of Chinese vertical specialization used new calculation method, test the relationship of Sino-US trade imbalance and vertical specialization from the theory and empirical, according to the changes of impact for the vertical specialization analysis the sustainability of the Sino-U.S.trade imbalance, and finally proposed to policy recommendations to change the trade imbalance.Part 1:The specialization degree of Chinese exports to the United States was test. On the basis of existing research methods, this part develop a new measure of vertical specialization, this method can be more precise calculation the ratio of the intermediate products in the export products. Take advantage of this method, combined with Chinese input-output tables and separation trade data, the study calculated the extent of vertical specialization which Chinese exports to the United States, the results show that vertical specialization of exports to the United States have a very high degree, geographical decomposition results show that VSI from the United States is very low degree, but have a rather high degree from the East Asian region. These show that vertical specialization caused the trade imbalance.Part 2:The empirical research of the relation between vertical specialization and Sino-US trade imbalance. The major research work in this part is to use VSI results, in accordance with the framework of theoretical analysis, test the relations between vertical specialization and Sino-US trade imbalance. Test is divided into three levels:the vertical specialization to United States, vertical specialization with United States, vertical specialization with East Asia, to verify the three hypotheses.the hypotheses have been put forward just as follows:Hypothesis 1:With the extent improving of China’s participation in the international division of labor and the upgrading of domestic production capacity, the vertical specialization extent of China exports to the United States experienced the process from the improve at first to the reduction. Vertical specialization has led to Sino-U.S.trade imbalance;Hypothesis 2:T Although the vertical specialization extent of china export to he United States is very high, the intermediate imports from the United States is smaller, that is to say the impact of the vertical specialization from the United States to the Sino-US trade imbalance is very small;Hypothesis 3:The vertical specialization from East Asia led to the Sino-U.S trade imbalance.Part 3:the development trend of Sino-US trade imbalance. This section first analyzes the factors impact of vertical specialization, FDI has significant led to vertical specialization. Because of Chinese FDI inflow is mainly cost-driven, with the rising of labor costs and other cost, the vertical type of FDI continued to decline. Also vertical specialization does not significant result in spillover effects, but domestic-funded enterprises have been crowding-out effect in technological progress, the proportion of the FDI inflows in the manufacturing sector continue to decrease,Sino-US trade imbalance will trend to balance; Finally, according to the case of South-East Asia Country,know the development direction of trade imbalances caused by vertical specialization.Although the Sino-US trade imbalance will towards a trade balance,because of the world financial crisis, the trade protectionism will be rising; China-US trade friction will increase. In the short term China should increase import the intermediate products from United States, and actively carry out an export-oriented direct investment, thereby reducing trade friction. The long-term China should improve independent innovation capability of domestic; enhance the added domestic value of exports. In addition the expanse domestic demand and reduce dependence on external markets.更多还原