【作者】 李玉勤；

【导师】 王东阳；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 杂粮产业发展在粮食安全、改善居民食物结构、农民增收、缓解农村贫困以及提高农用土地利用率等方面具有重要意义。杂粮在中国分布很广,但分品种主产区相对集中;杂粮种植粗放;全国播种面积减少、总产量下降、单产提高,但单产水平普遍低于大宗粮食作物。中国杂粮生产形成了一定的品种资源和品质优势,具有一定的科研开发和推广能力,种植成本收益比相对较高;在一些地方政府扶持政策支持下,在种植比较集中地区形成了一定规模的生产基地,并形成了产业化生产模式。杂粮加工业原料来源丰富,初步形成了以龙头企业和生产基地为中心的加工业布局,加工业标准化加强,科技推动作用加大,但是总体上仍然以初加工为主,深加工品种少,企业研发能力薄弱。对杂粮营销分析表明,虽然杂粮市场前景广阔,但是消费意识有待唤醒,需求潜力需要挖掘,杂粮产品质量不高,营销措施不力。由于中国生产的杂粮品质、价格具有竞争力,因此出口处于上升态势,但是以原粮出口为主,缺乏高附加值的产品。通过对山西省杂粮种植户的调查分析表明,农户种植目的包括自身消费和市场销售以实现利益最大化两方面;随着种植规模的扩大,农户满足自家需要的动机在减弱,而增加现金收入的动机在增强;杂粮销售收入对家庭收入的贡献较小,农户种植意愿偏低。Logistic回归模型分析15种影响因素对杂粮种植户的影响结果表明,杂粮的市场价格和销售难易程度对农户种植意愿影响显著;政府支持政策对农户杂粮经营行为的制度激励明显;耕地地形条件越有利对生产的正向影响越大;种植成本越低则农户的种植意愿越高;耕作倒茬需要对农户杂粮种植意愿有正向影响。对城市消费者调查问卷数据进行的Logistic分析表明,随着家庭收入的提高消费杂粮的概率在增加;年龄越大的人越愿意消费杂粮;消费者对价格敏感度比较高,价格高低与购买意愿成正比;消费者对杂粮营养价值判断与购买杂粮的意愿成正比;消费者越看重口感则购买意愿越低;加强促销手段能使消费者购买意愿强化;杂粮的易取得性影响着人们的杂粮消费。各阶层消费者杂粮消费收入弹性均大于1则表明随着收入的提高杂粮消费将呈现增加趋势。基于杂粮产业发展过程中存在的诸如品种老化、种植栽培技术落后、投入少;产业体系不够健全,市场开发与营销力度不够;科研与推广水平偏低,标准化生产体系建设滞后;对杂粮的重要性认识不足,政策支持力度不够等问题,提出政策建议包括:提高杂粮产业科技创新能力,建立标准化生产基地,实施品牌战略,加强市场营销,加大政策扶持力度,大力发展产业组织。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of mior grain crop industry plays a significant role in food security, improvement of food structure, increase of farmers’income, alleviation of rural poverty and promoting of land availability for agricultural use.The mior grain crops distribute widely in China but their dominant production areas depend on different varieties. mior grain crops are produced extensively so that both the sown area and total yield are decreasing. However, the average yield has been improved though they are less than that of major grain crops.The advantages of variety and quality of mior grain crops basically took shape in China with certain capabilities for scientific technological research and development and extension, but the cost-benefit ratio of production is relatively high. With favorable policy support at local government, a production base with designated size has been formed in some areas and a production mode has taken shape.The raw material resources are very rich for mior grain crop processing industry. At present, a processing industrial layout basically took shape with leading enterprises and production bases as the center. Science and technology plays a vital role in the standardization of processing industry. However, due to the weak in capacity of research and development of enterprises, the processing level is low with very few varieties for deep processing.The analysis on the sales of mior grain crop shows that the demand potential and consumption consciousness remain to be developed despite of a bright future for the mior grain crop market. The export of mior grain crop in China is increasing due to the competitive price and quality, but mainly raw grain with few high value-added products.The investigation done for farmers who produce mior grain crop in Shanxi province shows that the purpose of mior grain crops production is mainly to meet both the requirements of own consumption and marketing profit. With the increase in production area, the motivation to meet own consumption requirement decreases while the pursuit for cash income increases. However, profit in mior grain crops production contributes less in farmers’income so that the farmers would not like to produce them. 15 factors influencing farmers’behaviors are analyzed through Logistic regression model. The results show that both the selling price and the difficult-easy degree of mior grain crop in the market significantly influence farmers’production willingness. The support policies coming from government, favorable farmland condition, low production cost and crops rotation all have positive effect in promoting mior grain crop production.Questionnaire for city consumers has analyzed through Logistic model. The results show that the possibility in consuming mior grain crops increase with the improvement of household income, the old consumes more. However, the consumption price is a sensitive index, the higher the price is, the lower the consumption willingness is, vice versa. The knowledge of consumers in food nutrients is direct ration to the purchasing willingness. The consumers who stress taste mean they seldom buy it. Promotion is an effective way to strengthen the consumers purchasing willingness. the ready availability for mior grain crops also effects consumers’mior grain crops consumption. That the consumption income elasticity of consumers at all levels are bigger than 1 show that the consumption trend of mior grain crops increase with the improvement of income. During the mior grain crop industry development, the problems remain there including the aging of varieties, the backward in cultivated technology, the shortage of input, the unsoundness of industrial system, the weakness in marketing development, the low levels of scientific research and development, the lagging standardized production system, the lack knowledge for the importance of mior grain crop development and inadequate policy support and so on. The proposed policy suggestions are as follows: to strengthen the innovation ability of mior grain crop industry science and technology, establish the standardized production base, make use of brand strategy, enhance marketing strategy, reinforce policy support and fully develop industrial organization.更多还原