【作者】 孙颖；

【导师】 张荔；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 次贷危机自2007年4月从美国开始爆发以后,迅速蔓延到欧洲国家以及新兴经济国家,演化为一场全球性的金融危机,迫使各国政府展开了大规模的救助行动,其救助政策在救助方式的直接性、救助手段的多样化和救助规模的国际化上超过了历次金融危机。在经济金融全球化的今天,不仅一个国家难于避免危机的爆发,就是整个国际社会也难于避免危机的爆发,危机在很大程度上是难于预防的,只能控制或在一定程度上减轻危机的危害。因此,在许多情况下,一个国家不得不面临金融危机的突然袭击,当金融危机来时政府应该做什么?这让我们不得不重新审视金融危机救助引发的政府和市场关系问题。政府到底要不要救助?政府应当怎样救助?政府救助到底能产生多大效果?应急的救助措施会不会对长期的经济金融发展产生负面影响?这些问题都值得我们再次思索。目前虽然对金融危机政府救助相关的研究和评论不断出现在各类杂志、文章中,但对于金融危机政府救助的全面、系统的研究仍显得不够充分,而往往是当金融危机发生的时候,人们意识到对金融危机需要政府救助时,才被迫更多的关注和考虑以上问题。基于以上考虑,本文试图从理论和实践两大方面,围绕历史与现实两大主线,搭建起金融危机政府救助系统研究的框架,以期在理论与实践上对继续应对金融危机,保障经济金融的平稳健康运行提供一些值得借鉴的参考。本文得出的主要结论有：1.提出了金融危机政府救助的内涵和救助边界。提出狭义的金融危机政府救助指中央银行的“最后贷款人”行为,广义的金融危机政府救助是指在金融危机时期,政府及其部门对金融机构、金融市场、实体经济所采取的一切直接与间接的维护金融体制与总体经济稳定的所有行为。指出金融危机政府救助的边界是对可能引起系统性金融风险,并且依靠金融机构、金融市场、以及实体经济自身运行不能有效解决的金融危机,政府必须及时进行救助,以防止发生多米诺骨牌效应。当政府真正着手对金融危机进行救助时,往往从金融危机政府救助的主体、救助的对象、救助的措施、救助的资金筹集等方面系统地研究与落实金融危机政府救助的政策安排。2.基于古典经济学政府作为市场的“守夜人”、凯恩斯主义政府应为市场的“干预者”、新自由主义对政府失灵的批判、新凯恩斯主义政府应对市场进行选择性干预等主流经济学派关于政府与市场关系、财政政策与货币政策的有效性的核心观点,研究不同流派金融危机政府救助的理论基础与基石,对金融危机政府救助进行了理论解释。主流经济理论在政府干预经济方面虽历经百年的争论,但目前学术界或多或少地得到共识,市场具有不完善性,存在“失灵”,政府应当适时适度对经济进行干预,尤其是在金融危机的关键时期,政府应运用财政政策和货币政策进行救助。3.从实践角度,对历史上已经发生的美国1929—1933年大危机、20世纪80年代美国储贷危机、20世纪80年代后期北欧银行危机、20世纪90年代日本银行业危机、1997年亚洲金融危机中的政府救助的措施、特点和效果进行了研究,从中寻找金融危机政府救助的轨迹与演绎路径,历史实践提醒我们,面对金融危机政府必须果断而及时地进行救助。同时,金融危机政府救助的具体措施随救助历史的演进而不断创新与完善,历史为我们提供了政府直接注资、金融机构国有化、不良资产处置的“北欧模式”、国际联合救助等成熟的救助经验。4.次贷危机是自1929年大危机以来最严重的一次危机,迫使美国、欧洲国家等各国政府展开了大规模的救助行动,其救助政策在救助方式的直接性、救助手段的多样化和救助规模的国际化上超过了历次金融危机,创新了大量的流动性工具,并形成货币互换、多国联手等国际联合救助模式,金融危机政府救助实践在借鉴历史经验的基础上进一步发展完善。5.次贷危机政府救助的财政政策和货币政策效应已经显现,短期内,金融体系中的流动性迅速增加,金融市场开始恢复正常秩序,金融机构连续倒闭的现象已得到遏制,实体经济开始企稳；但前期释放的巨额流动性对中长期通货膨胀造成巨大压力,大规模的救助资金将造成国家财政赤字的巨额负担,经济中长期持续增长动力不足。因此,金融危机政府救助中长期面临政策退出、可持续发展的考验。6.设计出金融危机政府救助中长期政策退出策略。为防止金融危机进一步深化,金融危机政府救助是必须的,但政府救助的目的并不是要控制金融机构、金融市场,政府的作用是在市场失灵时进行必要的调控,因此救助政策的退出也是必须的。当经济出现实质性复苏,宏观经济形势明显好转是金融危机政府救助退出的最佳时机,退出的方式选择、退出步骤的策略安排必须考虑本国国情及国际间的协调合作,以保证前期政府救助效应的持续发挥。7.我国政府在此次金融危机政府救助中,将产业结构调整政策与财政政策、货币政策有效结合,政府救助中取得了明显的成效,得到了国际的普遍关注和认可,中国在金融危机政府救助历史上也划上了浓墨重彩的一笔。本文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：1.完善了金融危机政府救助的内涵和边界的界定。提出广义的金融危机政府救助是指在金融危机时期,政府及其部门对金融机构、金融市场、实体经济所采取的一切直接与间接的维护金融体制与总体经济稳定的所有行为。指出金融危机政府救助的边界是对可能引起系统性金融风险,并且依靠金融机构、金融市场、以及实体经济自身运行不能有效解决的金融危机,政府必须及时进行救助。2.本文运用理论联系实际的分析方法,从理论和实践两大方面,围绕历史与现实两大主线,初步搭建起金融危机政府救助系统研究的框架,理论上运用主流经济学关于国家干预经济的理论观点对金融危机政府救助进行解释,研究探讨金融危机政府救助的理论基础与基石,实践上从历史与现实的角度,以金融危机政府救助典型事件为基础,探寻出金融危机政府救助的发展轨迹与演绎路径。面对金融危机,政府必须救助。丰富了对金融危机政府救助的研究。3.本文尝试制定了金融危机政府救助在中长期的退出策略,并设计出包括退出时机、退出方式、退出步骤等具体内容的金融危机政府救助合理的退出路径,填补了理论界关于金融危机政府救助退出策略研究的不足。4.本文运用量化分析和质性分析相结合的方式,从财政政策与货币政策协调配合对次贷危机政府救助对金融体系、实体经济的效应进行了全面的、系统的评析,弥补了部分学者仅对财政政策或货币政策的效应进行分析的不足。本文尽管有一些创新之处,但也存在一定不足,目前,金融危机对全球的影响还在持续,随着金融危机或后金融危机时期政府救助实践的不断创新完善,对金融危机政府救助系统性的理论研究也应进一步深入,本人将在今后的研究中继续加以完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 The U.S. sub-prime crisis since the outbreak in April 2007 had quickly spread to Europe and new emerging market countries and then evolved into a global financial crisis. The financial crisis forced many countries’ governments to take out large-scale bailouts——the bailouts plans exceeded those in the previous financial crises in the aspect of the direct nature of the financial aid, the diversity of the aid instruments and the international scale of it. Under the background of the economic and financial globalization, not only a state but even the entire international community could not avoid the outbreak of the crisis. To a large extent, crisis is non-preventable and just could be control and reduce crisis hazards. In many cases, the crisis is unavoidable and a country has to be faced with its surprise shock, we should re-examine the relationship between government and society arising from the bailout. The Government in the end whether or not should to bailout? How should the government bailout? Government bailout in the end will have little effect? Emergency bailout measures will not be on the long-term negative impact on economic and financial development? These issues are worthy of our thinking once again.Although the government bailout of the financial crisis-related research and comments are continues appearing on various newspapers and periodicals, the financial crisis and government bailout for the comprehensive and systematic study is still not appear adequate, and when aware of the need for government bailout of the financial crisis, people are forced to pay more attention to and consider these issues. Based on the above considerations, this article around the two main line of the history and reality tries to build up the framework of the government bailout system for the financial crisis from two aspects of the theory and practice, in order to provide some theoretical and practical references to address the financial crisis and protect the economic and financial stability. The main conclusions are:1. Proposed the content and the border of the government bailout for the financial crisis. Define the government bailout in the narrow sense as the central bank’s "lender of last resort" behavior and in the broad sense as all the acts the government and its departments have taken direct and indirectly to financial institutions, financial markets, and the real economy in order to maintain financial system and overall economic stability during the financial crisis. Pointed out that the government bailout border for the financial crisis is when the financial crisis is likely to cause systemic financial risk, and can not be effectively resolved only relying on the operation of financial institutions, financial markets and real economy themselves, and the government must timely take bailout to prevent a domino effect. When the government really starts to bail out the financial crisis, it is often from the main body of the financial crisis, the object of bailout, bailout measures, and bailout fund-raising system to study and implement government bailout of policy arrangements.2. Based on different economics schools’fundamentals and basis on the Government and market relations, fiscal policy and monetary policy effectiveness such as government’s "Night Watch" as the market in classical economics, "the government should intervene market" of Keynesian, the neo-liberal critique of government failure, and the new Keynesian selective government intervention, studies different economics schools’fundamentals and cornerstone about government bailout, provide the theoretical explanation of the government bailout. Mainstream economic theory has experienced many years of debate on government intervention in the economy, but more or less reached a consensus:Markets are imperfect nature, there is "failure", and the government should timely and appropriately take intervention in the economy, and should use fiscal policy and monetary policy to bailout especially in the critical period of financial crisis.3. From a practical point of view, study the government bailout measures, characteristics and effects during the Great Depression of the United States 1929-1933, the U.S. savings and loan crisis in 1980s, the Nordic banking crisis in 1980s, Japan’s banking crisis in 1990s, and the 1997 Asian financial crisis,and find the tracks and deductive path of the government bailout. Historical practice reminds us that when faced with the financial crisis, the Government must take decisive and timely assistance. Meanwhile, the specific measures of the government bailout are constantly innovating and improving as the history evolution, and there are many success bailout experience can be referred to such as government direct funding, the nationalization of financial institutions, the "Nordic model" of non-performing assets, International Joint relief assistance.4. Sub-prime crisis is the most serious crisis since the Great Depression in 1929 since a, forcing the United States, Europe and other countries launched an large-scale bailouts——the bailouts plans exceeded those in the previous financial crises in the aspect of the direct nature of the financial aid, the diversification of the aid instruments and the scale of international aid. The bailout a lot of liquidity tools are innovated, and currency exchange, multi-nation joint rescue mode are formed during the bailout. The government bailout practice and experiences get further development and improvement.5. the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy of the government bailout have appeared, in the short term,the liquidity of the financial system increased rapidly, financial markets started to return to normal order, successive failures of financial institutions has been curbed and the real economy began to stabilize; but the huge amounts of liquidity released in the early time puts a heavy pressure on the long-term inflationary, the large-scale bailout funds will cause a huge burden on national budget deficits, and the economy is still lack of long-term sustained growth momentum. Therefore, the government bailouts for the financial crisis are facing the withdrawal of aid policy and sustainable development challenges in the long-term. 6. Design a long-term withdrawal strategy of the government bailout policy. To prevent further deteriorating of the financial crisis, the government bailout is necessary, but carrying out the government bailout is not intended to control the financial institutions and financial markets. The role of government is to take necessary regulation when the market mechanism is in failure, so the withdrawal of aid policy is also necessary. The best time to start to withdrawal the government bailout policy is when the economy is in Substantial recovery and the macroeconomic situation has improved out of the financial crisis, and the national conditions, international coordination and cooperation should be taken into account when choice the way of the withdrawal and arrange the steps of withdrawal to ensure the early effects of government bailout continued to play.7. In this government bailout, Chinese government combined the industrial structure adjustment with fiscal policy and monetary policy effectively, achieved remarkable results, and received international attention and recognition.Innovations of this dissertation are in the following areas:1. Improved the definition of the government bailout’s content and boundaries. Define the government bailout in the broad sense as all the acts the government and its departments have taken direct and indirectly to financial institutions, financial markets, and the real economy in order to maintain financial system and overall economic stability during the financial crisis. Pointed out that the government bailout border for the financial crisis is when the financial crisis is likely to cause systemic financial risk, and can not be effectively resolved only relying on the operation of financial institutions, financial markets and real economy themselves, and the government must timely take bailout.2. The author applies the analysis of theory with practice in this dissertation, and set up the framework the government bailout system for the financial crisis. The author explains the government bailout with the mainstream economics theory on the state intervention, and studies different economics schools’fundamentals and basis on the government bailout. Based on typical historical events, this article from a historical perspective explored the development and the deductive path of the government bailout. History told us that when faced with financial crisis, the government must take bailout.3. This dissertation attempts to develop a withdrawal strategy for the government bailout in the medium and long term and design a reasonable withdrawal route including withdrawal timing, withdrawal ways and withdrawal steps. This try fills gaps in the theoretical of government bailout withdrawal policy.4. In this dissertation, the author made a comprehensive, systematic assessment on the effectiveness of the fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination during the government bailout on the financial system and real economy through quantitative and qualitative analysis, and made up for the lack of studies of the combined effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy.Despite some innovations, there are still some deficiencies in this dissertation. The impacts of the sub-prime financial crisis is still global ongoing, and with the innovative practice of the government bailout during the period of the financial crisis and post-financial crisis, the theory of government bailout should also be further, and I will continues to improve it in the future.更多还原