【作者】 吴英杰；

【导师】 刘廷玺；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 水是地球上一切生命的源泉,是万物赖以生存的环境要素,同时也是人类社会发展的重要物质资源。人口增长、经济发展对水资源的需求量日益增大,但是有限的水资源却无法满足生活、生产需水量的快速增长,同时由于水资源的不合理使用,已经出现了供需紧张、水旱灾害频繁和生态环境日益恶化的局面。鉴于当前我国水资源问题凸显,对北方寒旱缺水型城市的水资源,特别是可利用的多种非常规水资源进行综合利用与合理配置显得尤为重要。本文将内蒙古自治区锡林浩特市作为研究区,针对该城市目前出现的水资源短缺问题,从城市水源与用水户的特点出发,对该城市的地表水、地下水、露天煤矿疏干水、城市中水以及城市雨水进行了系统地、全面地评价,并对研究区内多种水资源在各用水部门之间的配置进行了模拟、优化以及模拟与优化耦合的研究,并且最终得到了兼顾经济、社会和生态三方效益的最优方案。主要研究内容如下:(1)问题的提出。归纳和总结了当前国内外水资源合理配置理论研究的主要内容与发展方向;提出了当前水资源与经济、社会和生态环境之间所面临的主要问题,并选择我国北方寒旱缺水型城市——锡林浩特市作为研究区域。(2)研究区水资源数量与质量评价。详细阐述锡林浩特市经济发展状况、城市供用水现状及远景规划和水资源开发利用程度。结合现有资料对锡市地表水、地下水、露天煤矿疏干水、城市中水和雨水五种水资源进行数量与质量评价。(3)研究区社会经济发展与多水源系统动力学模拟。提出区域多水源复杂系统呈“S”型发展,可以用Logistic阻滞增长模型描述其可持续发展过程,同时应用系统动力学分析方法对锡林浩特市多水源复杂系统在结构及其运动、发展的动态行为上进行考查和分析并模拟,将该系统分为农业用水子系统、工业用水子系统、第三产业用水子系统、生活用水子系统以及绿地用水子系统。对系统内可能发生的各种变化进行模拟,从而寻求改善锡市水资源系统行为的机会和途经,以达到优化水资源规划和管理运行的技术,促进当地水资源、人口、社会、经济和环境之间全面、协调、可持续发展的目的。(4)研究区多水源合理配置研究。对锡市建立经济、社会和生态多目标优化模型,并以各水源可供水量、向用户最大供水量和变量非负等作为模型的约束调件,利用带精英策略的非可控遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)对锡市多种水资源在各用水部门之间进行合理配置,并求解出各水源针对不同用水部门供水量的Pareto最优解集合。(5)水利工程实例分析。将多水源合理配置的方法应用到锡林浩特市多水源工业供水工程设计中,利用工程实例充分说明本文对区域多水源合理配置研究的实际意义。(6)优化与模拟的耦合。应用决策支持思想,采用优化与模拟相结合的方法对锡市多水源复杂系统进行整体的动态分析,即先用优化的方法宏观寻找规划期内系统较优的方案策略,再用动态模拟方法对其进行细致的分析,得出相应评价指标。优化与模拟的结合与反馈修正,可引导决策逐步达到优化、合理可行的目的。最后对本文的研究内容做出了总结,同时对未来研究内容以及发展方向做出了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the source of all life on earth, is the survival environment factor, but also is an important material resources for the development of human society. Population growth and economic development are increasingly demand for water resources,But the limited water resources can not meet the the rapid growth of domestic and production water demand. At the same time as the irrational use of water resources, supply and demand stress, frequent flood and drought and ever-worsening environment has emerged. In view of the water resources’problem in China, it is particularly important to comprehensively utilize and reasonably allocate the water resources, especially the available non-conventional water resources in the cold, drought and water shortage city in northern China. Based on the Xilinhot, Inner Mongolia, as the research area, be aimed at the now appears water shortage problem, based on the characteristics of water sources and water consumers, systematicly and comprehensively evaluate this city’s surface water, groundwater, opencast coal mine drainage water, reclaimed water and urban rain water, meanwhile, researching on the simulation, optimization and simulation and optimization coupling about the allocation between the water and the water using departments, and eventually get to balance between economic, social and ecological benefits of the optimal solution. The main research contents below:(1) Posing problem. This paper summarizes the main contents of theoretical research and development direction about water resources reasonable allocation at home and abroad; poses the main problems which the water resources and the economic, social and ecological environment problems are facing, and chooses the drought and water shortage city in northern china as research area.(2) Water resources evaluation on research area. This paper gives a detailed description about the economic development status, urban water supply and demand condition, far-seeing plan and the water resources development and utilization, combines existing materials to do the quantitive and qualitive evaluation of Xilinhot’s five water resources which are surface water, groundwater, opencast coal mine drainage water, reclaimed water and urban rain water.(3) System dynamics simulation of multi-source water resources comlex system in research area. Proposing that regional multi-source water resources complex system is the development of S-type, Logistic growth model can be described as the process of sustainable development. System dynamics analysis is applicated to investigate, analyze and simulate the multi-source water resources system in the structure and the dynamic behaviors of the development and motion. The multi-source water resources complex system in Xilinhot is divided into agriculture, industry, tertiary industry, domestic and greenland water consume system. All kinds of changes in this system is simulated, so as to find the methods and opportunities to improve the city water system behaviours, and achieve the goals that optimizing water resources planning and management of technical operations to promote local water resources, population, social, economic and environment under coordinated and sustainable development.(4) Studing on multi-source water resources reasonable allocation inresearch area. Social, economic and ecological multi-objective optimization model in Xilinhot is built, and the output of supplying water, maximum water supply to the consumers and the variables be positive are considered as the constraint conditions of the model, by means of the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) to allocate the water resources between each water consumers in Xilinhot, and get the Pareto optimal solutions for different water supply of water using departments.(5) Case studing on water conservancy project. The optimized configuration is applied to the multi-source water resources industrial water supply project, by using the engineering example to illustrate the practical significance of local multi-source water resources reasonable allocation.(6) Coupling of optimization and simulation. This pater applicate the method of decision support the thought and coupling of optimization and simulation to analyze the multi-source water resources complex system in Xilinhot integrally and wavily. Firstly, optimization is applied to find the system optimal tactics in the planning period, secondly, dynamic simulation is applied on detailed analyzing to obtained the corresponding indexes. Combining and feedingback with the optimization and simulation, can guide decision approach to the optimal, reasonable and feasible destination.Finally, the study contents are summarized, and the future research contents and development direction are forecasted in this paper.更多还原