制度变迁视角下的我国农村金融风险研究

【作者】 孟凡祥；

【导师】 胡希宁；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 农村金融是农村经济的核心,其在农村经济发展中的作用举足轻重。同时,农村金融又属于高风险行业,农村金融体系具有天然的脆弱性,金融风险的积累很容易导致农村金融的动荡,破坏农村经济社会的稳定。尤其在当今世界经济、金融一体化的背景下,农村金融很容易受到国际金融危机的影响,农村金融安全问题成为人们普遍关注的焦点。“制度是重要的”已经成为人们的共识。如何在农村金融制度变迁的过程中,建立更加经济有效的金融制度和体系,控制农村金融风险的发生,确保农村金融的健康发展,一直受到我国金融部门和理论界的高度关注。论文借助交易成本理论、产权理论、制度变迁理论等现代经济金融理论与方法,详细分析我国的农村金融制度变迁的内在机制。并以此对我国农村金融体制变迁的历程进行划分和分析。从我国农村金融度变迁的历程看,改革开放前我国建立的是大一统的金融体系,国家对金融资源的分配主要依靠行政指令,不存在现代意义上的农村金融体系。改革开放以来,我国进行了以市场为取向的金融制度变迁,我国农村金融也逐渐由改革开放初期的单一性向多元化转变。从变迁的特征看,我国的农村金融制度变迁具有政府主导、渐进性的特征。同时,我国农村金融制度变迁中还存在过度行政干预与寻租现象、农村金融组织缺乏独立性、市场准入的过度限制等制度供给过剩问题,同时也存在金融产品、存款保险制度、信息披露和金融立法等制度供给不足的情况。农村制度变迁的过程,同时也是农村金融风险不断演变的过程。在农村金融制度变迁的不同时期,农村金融的制度风险也具有不同的特点。利益取向是带有利己色彩,利益主体在博弈过程中的不同利益取向势必造成制度变迁中的制度的瑕疵和不完善现象。而新制度上的不足和缺陷又会成为利益主体博弈谋求利益的途径,从而加大了制度方面的风险。环境,作为影响制度变迁的重要因素,也影响着农村金融风险的变化,包括风险的种类和严重程度等。在理论和现实的基础上,通过分析建立了我国农村金融制度变迁的风险模型。认为我国农村金融风险更主要体现在制度风险上,这在深层次上表现为由中央政府、地方政府、农村金融组织和农民等利益主体博弈的结果。制度风险同制度变迁紧密相连,具有路径依赖的特性,而要防范金融风险,就必须从农村金融制度的完善入手,而优化利益主体的博弈行为更是关键。美国、日本等国家的农村金融风险制度给予我国农村金融风险防范提供了很有益的启示和经验借鉴。主要体现在建立完整的农村金融体系、强化农村金融监管、提高农村金融服务水平、以及重视金融监管法律体系建设等方面。制度变迁与制度风险相互影响。金融制度的变迁又会导致农村金融风险的进一步演变。这也决定了我国农村金融风险防范是一个长期的过程,特别是在市场化条件下,各利益主体都在努力寻求自身利益的最大化。因此,从制度变迁的角度看,农村金融风险的防范任重而道远。一方面,需要逐步改革完善我国的农村金融制度,使其在满足经济社会发展的需要的同时,能够保持农村金融的健康和良性发展。另一方面,要规范和约束各利益主体的行为,以可持续发展理念为指导,提高风险防范意识和观念。最后,不断优化农村金融生态环境,包括农村信用体系的建设、城乡二元结构的逐步消除、大力发展“三农”等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural finance is the core of the rural economy, and plays a pivotal role in the rural economic development. At the same time, as a high risk sector, the rural financial system has a natural vulnerability. The accumulation of financial risks can easily lead to financial instability in rural areas, destruction of rural economy and social stability. In particular, in today’s global economy and financial integration, rural finance is influenced easily by the international financial crisis. The rural financial security issue has become the focus of common concern. "System is an important" has become consensus. How to build a more cost-effective financial system, to control the occurrence of financial risk for rural areas, and to ensure rural financial healthy development in the process of the rural financial system change, has caused great attention by China’s financial sector and theorists.Transaction cost theory, property right theory, institutional change theory and other modern economic and financial theories and methods are used in the paper, to analyze changes in China’s rural financial system and the internal mechanism.From the course of changes in China’s rural finance, the unified financial system existed before the reform and opening of China, while the state allocated the financial resources, mainly through administrative directives. And there is no modern sense rural financial system. Since the reform and opening, China had market-oriented reform in the financial system, and China’s rural finance changes gradually from the beginning of the unitary transformation to pluralism. From the characteristics of changes, changes in China’s rural financial system process with government-led, progressive features. At the same time, changes in China’s rural financial system also has the over administrative intervention and rent seeking, lack of independence of the rural financial institutions, market access, excessive restrictions and many other system oversupply problems, while there are also financial products, deposit insurance system, information disclosure and system of financial legislation, the supply shortage.When the institutional change in rural areas proceeds, rural financial risk is also an evolving process. Changes in the rural financial system have different periods, while the risk of rural finance system has different characteristics. Approach is self-serving interests, and interest groups in the course of the different interests of the game are bound to create institutional change in the system flaws and imperfections. The new system’s shortcomings and deficiencies will be the ways interests of stakeholders seek to game, increasing the system’s risks. Environment,as an important factor affecting institutional change, also influence the changes in rural financial risks, including risks such as the type and severity.On the basis of theory analization and history analization, then change-risk model of China’s rural financial system is built on this basis. That China’s rural financial risk in the context of the system performance reflect the interests game among the central government, local governments, farmers and other rural financial institutions. System risk closely linked with institutional change, with the characteristics of path dependence. And to guard against financial risks, we must improve the rural financial system, and behavior of stakeholders which is the key to the game.United States, Japan and other countries have the system of rural financial risks which provides a very useful inspiration and Experience to China’s rural financial risk prevention. It mainly reflects in the establishment of a complete rural financial system, strengthening financial supervision in rural areas, improving rural financial services, and attaching importance to the legal system of financial regulation and so on.Institutional Change and the system risk interact with each other. Changes in the financial system will lead to the further evolution of the rural financial risks. This also determines China’s rural financial risk prevention is a long process, especially in market conditions, the various interest groups are trying to find self-interest maximization. Therefore, the system change from the perspective of the rural financial risks has a long way to go. On the one hand, China needs to gradually reform and improve the rural financial system to make it to meet the needs of economic and social development, while able to maintain healthy and sustainable rural finance development. On the other hand, regulate and restrain the behavior of all stakeholders, the concept of sustainable development, and improve the sense of risk prevention. Finally, optimize the financial environment in rural areas, including rural credit system construction, the gradual elimination of urban-rural gap, vigorously develop the "three rural" and so on.更多还原