人民币实际汇率与中国经济增长关系研究

【作者】 王凯；

【导师】 贾明德； 赵景峰；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的对外开放度和依存度越来越高,作为联系国内外经济桥梁的人民币汇率越来越成为关注的焦点。高额外汇储备和经常项目与资本项目的“双顺差”给央行的汇率政策以及维持人民币汇率稳定带来了巨大压力。当前,在人民币升值的幅度上仍然存在着较大分歧,主要的担心是人民币汇率升值是否会影响中国的经济增长,是否会像20世纪七八十年代的日本一样,由于汇率升值而造成经济的衰退。在开放经济条件下,汇率就是影响一国经济增长的核心因素之一,如果人民币汇率制度安排不当,会给中国的经济增长和发展埋下巨大隐患,因为人民币汇率失调会直接影响中国的国际竞争力,从而对中国经济增长产生重大影响。本文在规范分析和实证分析相结合的基础上,对人民币实际汇率与中国经济增长之间相互影响机制进行深入分析,为人民币汇率变动的判断和决策提供了一般意义上的总体分析框架。重点在实证研究方面,利用季度时间序列数据和年度时间序列数据,在向量自回归模型的基础上,运用单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学技术从汇率影响经济增长和经济增长影响汇率两个角度系统分析了人民币实际汇率和中国经济增长的关系。首先,研究中国经济增长对人民币实际汇率的影响,传导机制为基于供给角度的巴拉萨——萨缪尔森效应。其次,研究人民币实际汇率对中国经济增长的影响。包括三条线索：人民币实际汇率→进出口贸易→中国经济增长；人民币实际汇率→外商直接投资→中国经济增长；人民币实际汇率错位→中国经济增长。最后,针对以上理论分析和实证研究,从确定合适的人民币汇率目标水平和完善人民币汇率形成机制入手,提出改进和完善人民币汇率的对策建议。研究结果表明,人民币实际汇率与中国经济增长有密切的双向相关关系。一方面,在短期内,人民币实际汇率贬值对中国经济增长具有“紧缩效应”,不利于中国经济增长；但长期内具有“扩张效应”,促进中国经济增长。人民币实际汇率低估促进中国经济增长,而人民币实际汇率高估则将阻碍中国经济增长。另一方面,中国经济增长引起人民币实际汇率升值,巴拉萨——萨缪尔森效应在中国是成立的。如果中国继续保持长期的经济增长,并且在将来的经济增长过程中,相对于不可贸易品部门(服务业),可贸易品部门(制造业)劳动生产率增长得更快,那么根据巴拉萨——萨缪尔森效应假说,人民币实际汇率升值是必然趋势。从长期政策趋向来看,大力提高中国不可贸易部门、特别是生产性服务业的劳动生产率,降低可贸易部门与不可贸易部门的相对劳动生产率是缓解人民币升值压力的最有利措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the opening up of China’s economy and high degree of the trade dependence, the RMB exchange rate to connect China with the world has increasingly become the focus of attention. High foreign exchange reserves and the "double surplus" of current account and capital account have given severe pressure to the central bank to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability. At present, there are still some different opinions to RMB exchange rate, the main concern is that wehther the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate affect China’s economic growth, would like Japan in the seventies and eighties in the 20th century, since a decade-long recession was caused due to exchange rate appreciation in Japan. In an open economy, exchange rate is the one of the key factors to affect economic growth, if the RMB exchange rate system not be well organized; it will lay a huge hidden danger to China’s economic growth, because the exchange rate imbalance will directly affect China’s international competitiveness. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China’s economic growth, so as to determine trend of the RMB exchange rate.In this paper, we use quarterly time-series data and yearly time-series data, use the unit root test, cointegration, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques based on the VAR model, and analyze the relationship between RMB real exchange rate and China’s economic growth from the two aspects of the "exchange rate impact on economic growth" and "economic growth impact of exchange rate", Firstly, we analyze the impact of China’s economic growth on real exchange rate of RMB, and the conduction mechanism is Balassa Samuelson effect. Secondly, we analyze the RMB real exchange rate on China’s economic growth, which includes the following three aspects:1) the RMB real effective exchange rate→import and export trade→the economic growth of China; 2)the RMB real effective exchange rate→FDI→economic growth of China; 3)the RMB real exchange rate misalignment→economic growth of China. At last, based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research, we propose some basic ideas for the reform of RMB exchange rate system.This paper’s results show that the RMB real exchange rate and China’s economic growth are closely related and their relationship is two-way. On the one hand, in the short term, the real exchange rate depreciation of the RMB has "tightening effect" on China’s economic growth, in the long term the real exchange rate depreciation of the RMB has "balloon effect" on China’s economic growth. The undervalued of RMB exchange rate will promote China’s economic growth, while the overvalued of RMB real exchange rate will hinder China’s economic growth. On the other hand, China’s economic growth have caused the real exchange rate appreciation, Balassa Samuelson effect is available in China. If China want to keep long-term economic growth in the future, and trade goods sector’s (manufacturing) labor productivity growth are faster as opposed to non-tradable goods sector’s (services) labor productivity, then according to the Balassa Samuelson effect hypothesis, the RMB real exchange rate appreciation is an inevitable path. From the long-term policy aspect, it is important to vigorously improve the non-tradable sectors’(services) labor productivity, particularly in the production of services sectors’ labor productivity; it is a good way to ease the appreciation pressure on RMB exchange rate.更多还原