【作者】 薛健；

【导师】 吴国蔚；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 国民经济系统是一个由许多性质不同却又相互关联的生产和消费部门构成,受到多种因素影响的复杂系统。同时,任何国家与地区的产业关联结构都将与贸易结构相互耦合,相互作用。为能够更加全面、科学、深刻的认识产业关联结构的主要特征以及产业与贸易结构相互影响的方式,需要从整体论与还原论的角度,基于系统论与复杂科学方法展开研究。本研究以投入产出分析为基础,对产业间关联结构以及贸易与产业产出间关联关系的整体体征,遵循复杂网络思想与研究框架,同时综合运用定量的统计分析、定量定性相结合的比较分析等方法进行了研究。在这一基础上,讨论了进出口对经济增长的影响。其中对进口对经济增长影响的讨论运用比较优势思想,突破了直接将产出水平变动与经济增长波动直接对应的研究方法,得到了更加科学合理的结论。本文首先回顾了复杂网络理论、投入产出理论的研究背景。通过梳理以往的研究成果发现,虽然复杂网络理论已渗透到多个学科领域,但运用这一方法系统的分析产业关联关系的研究却极为鲜见,且主要集中于理论的梳理与简单的实证。贸易与产业产出间关系的既往研究,主要集中在贸易总量与产出或经济总量以及特定产业贸易量与产出水平间的一般经验性研究,没有出现将贸易结构与产业关联关系统筹考虑,并运用复杂网络方法系统研究的相关文献。在实证方面,本文选则长三角与台湾地区为主要数据来源,籍由理论方法上的突破,得以系统全面的比较分析两地产业关联结构的异同及两地贸易对各自产业产出水平及经济发展的影响。为更好了的理解两岸经贸关系的现状及特点,本文系统的梳理了两岸经贸往来的发展历程。通过梳理认为,经贸政策在两岸经贸发展中扮演着重要角色,在一定程度上左右着两岸经贸关系的发展。自1979年以来,两岸经贸政策发展可分为三个阶段,相应的两岸贸易关系也与政策的发展转变相辅相成。目前两岸贸易具有明显的投资主导特征,且产业内贸易发展迅速,由于非经济因素的影响,两岸贸易处于严重失衡状态。本文在投入产出分析的基础上引入了贸易影响,数据量较大,又由于两岸关系的特殊性,造成基础数据获取与处理的难度大大增加。实际研究中,数据处理本身也成为了研究的一部分。利用RAS方法将台湾2004年投入产出表更新为与长三角地区年度相同的2005年投入产出表,使数据具有了横断面上的可比性。利用贸易引力模型估算长三角与台湾地区各产业贸易量,得到了两地各产业贸易量的间接统计结果。根据复杂网络理论,在投入产出关联关系的基础上建立投入产出关联网络模型,利用2005年长三角及台湾地区投入产出表数据实证表明,两地区产业间关联程度与定义方式无关,均通过了严格的幂率分布检验。但产业节点在整个产业关联网络中的影响及受影响程度则因定义方式的不同出现了不同的结果,即利用实际消耗量定义时,具有幂率分布特征,而利用单位消耗量定义时,则不具备此特征。理论结果蕴含的实际意义表明,两地区极少数产业间具有较强的关联关系,而其余绝大多数产业间的关联性较弱;产业节点在整个产业关联网络中的作用则因定义方式的不同而存在较大差异,从总量关系看,少数产业在整个产业关联网络中扮演了重要角色,而大多数产业作用很小,从单位量关系看则没有此特征;长三角与台湾地区各自经济总量与产业发展水平存在显著差异,但不同产业在经济结构中的地位及作用具有明显的趋同性。在投入产出行平衡关系的基础上,对最终需求部分进行重新分解,获得了各产业贸易对各产业产出影响的表示模型。得到了一个类Leontief逆矩阵,以此矩阵为基础,利用乘法及加法分解区分出了贸易对产业产出影响的乘数效应、溢出效应与反馈效应。乘法分解刻画了三种影响效应的发生过程,而加法分解则将三种效应各自分离出来,使之可以分别得到测算。在得到贸易对各产业产出水平影响及分解出三种效应的基础上,利用复杂网络方法分析认为,贸易对各产业产出影响符合幂率分布特征,少数产业的进出口对区域内各产业产出影响较大,同时各产业进出口对各产业产出水平的影响也仅集中在少数产业。贸易对长三角的影响主要表现在进口且主要是乘数效应,而对台湾地区的影响主要表现在出口且主要是溢出效应。贸易对产业产出影响的一个直接结果就是贸易对经济增长的影响,基于投入产出方法与贸易对产业产出影响模型,本文探讨了进出口对经济增长的影响,其中进口对经济增长的影响基于比较优势思想。通过实证认为,贸易对长三角地区经济增长的作用主要体现为进口,而台湾地区体现为出口。更多还原

【Abstract】 The national economy is a complex system composed of many production and consumption departments, which interact with each others for systematic operation. The input-output relevancy of national economy and the impact of international trade had already coupling with each other. In order to analysis the character of input-output relevancy and relation of trade and industry comprehensively, scientifically and holistically, we need using systematic complex method, from holism and reductionism to expansion our study.Based on input-output analysis, using complex network theory combining the quantifying statistical and qualitative comparative analysis methods, the input-output relevancy network model, and the trade affecting model have been established. Furthermore, the import impaction on industrial production has also been study base on comparative method.The paper first reviewed the research background of the complex network and input-output relevancy, from which, we find that complex method has been used in many field, but rare on industrial relevancy. The fore passed research on relations between trade and industry mostly focused on the trading total quantity acting with total industry output. Using the data of Yangtze River Delta and Taiwan China, empirical analysis has also been carried out.For a better understanding of trade developing history between Taiwan and the mainland mainland, this paper first hackled the Policies of economic relations and the economy developing of Cross Strait, including Yangtze River Delta. We find that economic policies of these two areas had played a very important role. From 1979, the economic policy and trade development can be divided into three stages.This research including input-output table of both Taiwan and the Yangtze River Delta,moreover, the impaction from trade. The special relation between Taiwan and the mainland mainland gives additional difficulties in data collection. Thus, the methods of trading data have also been view as part of this paper, including using R S method to updating Taiwan’s input-output table of 2004 to 2005, and using gravity model of trade for estimating the trade volume of every industry between Taiwan and Yangtze River Delta.Based on complex network theory, the input-output relevancy network model has been established. Using the input-output table of Taiwan and Yangtze River Delta, the main statistical characters show that the relation between industries of these two areas obeys power law distribution. But, the distribution of industry point itself is different due to different definition. The minority industry plays a very important role while the majorities are not. Yangtze River Delta’s aggregate and industrial structures are different from Taiwan.Based on theory of row balanced relation in input-output analysis, the effects model of trade impact on industrial production had been founded. Using Leontief inverse matrix like matrix getting from the model, the effects of trade act on industrial production had been divided by multiplication and addition method, three different effects namely multiplier effect, Spillover Effect and feedback effect had also been discriminated. Multiplication method depicted the processes of those three effects, while addition method made them independent from each other. Using complex method three effects and the effects of three all has been analyzed. Result shows that, the affection distribution obeys power law distribution, minority industries played an important role, but majorities are not. The affection of trade on Yangtze River Delta is mostly embodied in multiplier Effect of import, while on Taiwan is in Spillover Effect of export.A direct outcome of trade affects on industrial production is the effect of trade working on economic growth. Based on the model of input-output relevancy and trade affect, we at last discussed the impact of trade on economy. What different from other discussion is that, the theory we using when study the affection induced by import is The Comparative Advantage Theory, thus avoided the common result that import affection is often negative. Using the Yangtze River Delta and Taiwan’s2005 input-output table and trade data, the calculation result shows that, in Yangtze River Delta, import has played an important role in promoting economic aggregate, while in Taiwan the export has played an important role.更多还原