【作者】 侯建明；

【导师】 尹豪；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国东北地区人口的生育水平迅速下降,并先于全国达到低生育水平,甚至个别地区和城市达到“超低生育水平”。本文深入地分析了东北三省人口及生育水平变动情况,并根据2000年全国第五次人口普查资料和有关专家学者的先行研究,分三种生育方案对东北地区未来人口发展进行预测分析,提出我国东北地区未来人口发展面临的主要问题。深入阐述了东北地区生育水平长期低于全国平均水平的原因,分别从东北地区人口政策、社会经济、育龄妇女自身因素等方面分析了东北地区长期处于低生育水平的主要原因。并且对低生育水平对东北地区社会经济发展可能带来的影响进行总结。主要包括四个方面:人口再生产的影响、人口年龄结构、人口性别结构以及未来人口生育政策。在肯定稳定低生育水平对于我国东北地区人口发展具有重要意义的同时,通过分析低生育水平可能带来的一些负面影响,使我们能够防患于未然,适当修改我国现行人口政策,制定适合东北地区人口发展的人口生育政策,针对低生育水平给社会经济发展可能带来的种种影响提出建议和对策。在对我国东北地区生育水平进行分析的基础上,以统筹解决我国东北地区人口问题为根本目的,进而促进我国东北地区经济的健康、稳步、快速发展,实现人口、资源、环境、经济、社会的协调、可持续发展,构建以人为本的和谐社会。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China was founded for 60 years, with the concerted efforts of CPC and people across the country, China’s population and family planning have made remarkable achievements. China has effectively controlled excessive population growth, lowering the fertility rate to decrease below the replacement level, achieved a historic change of the population reproduction pattern from the high fertility rate, low mortality and high growth to low fertility rate, low death rate and low growth, successfully explored a road with Chinese characteristics, vigorously promoted the comprehensive national strength, social progress and improvement of living standards of the people, as well as made a positive contribution to stabilizing the world population. Keeping a stable low fertility rate is not only significant for the development of Northeast China, but conducive to Northeast’s sustainable development, including population, resources and environment, thus improve the quality of population, development of human resources, and provide intellectual support for revitalizing the Northeast industrial base.Since the reform and opening up, Northeast China’s fertility rate has declined rapidly, which reached a lower rate earlier than other regions, even some individual regions and cities reached a“lowest-low fertility rate”. Since 1990, the total fertility rate in Northeast China has been below the replacement level, and during the fifth national census in 2000, it has dropped to be below 1.0, which was adjusted to 1.5 to be lowest-low fertility rate. The article analyzes the changes of population and birth level in Northeast China, concluding the following characteristics for Northeast China’s fertility rate: the fertility rates of three northeastern provinces have been in the low fertility rate; the fertility rate declined faster than national average level; fertility rate of women of childbearing age declined rapidly. And based on the data of the fifth National Census in 2000, the article respectively assumes low, middle and high birth programs, according to which forecasts and analyzes future’s population development of Northeast China,put forward the main problems, including population aging, social support and the shortage of labor resources. No matter which fertility program the population develops along, in 2050, we will face a serious aging population, especially the dependent problem for elder population, in the meanwhile, after "demographic dividend", improving the quality of labor to replace shortage of labor force will be another challenge.Then the article, from population policies, social and economic development, women of childbearing age, respectively explains and expounds the main reasons of the low fertility rate which is below the national average for a long time. Next, it make conclusions from four aspects including the impact on population reproduction, population age structure, sex structure of population, as well as future’s population policies, to conclude the impact of the low fertility rate on social and economic development of Northeast China. since the implementation of family planning, fertility rate has declined rapidly, not only population growth has slowed, but accelerated the change of population reproduction, which is conducive to sustainable development of population, resources, environment. Long-term low birth rate can effectively control population growth, population, relieve the stress of resources and environment. Economy develops faster than population grows, thus the quality of population and life will be greatly enhanced. Meanwhile, the low fertility rate accelerates the aging of the population, to some degree, will impact pension system. In particular, the change of family pension and the improvement of health care, is the major aging problem. The faster fertility rate declines, the higher the proportion of working-age population will be, and the duration of the demographic dividend will be relatively short, vice versa. Although the Northeast region is still in the period of "demographic dividend", with gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, the population age structure will bring a certain impact on social and economic development. Low fertility rate will also have impact on population sex structure, including continued growth of sex ratio of population and growing marriage issues. With a vast territory, various regions, a unified population policy can not fully meet the actual development. Experience from developed countries tells us that, appropriate adjustments of Population Policy is one of effective methods to ease and improve low fertility rate. Although the population issue is not able to be solved in a short period because of population inertia, we still need to take preventive measures. While affirming the great significance for the population development in Northeast China by stabling a low fertility rate, the article further analyzes the low fertility rate may bring some negative effects, so that we can take preventive measures, properly amend China’s current population policies, formulate measurable population policies, as well as advance proposals and countermeasures for the impact of low fertility rate on social and economic development. On the basis of the analysis of the fertility rate, we aim at coordinating to solve the population problems, thus contribute to the health, steady and rapid economic development in Northeast China, and achieve the goal of coordinative, sustainable development integrating with population, resources, environment, economy, as well as society, to build a people-centered harmonious society.更多还原