【作者】 刘吉成；

【导师】 乞建勋； 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 电能从生产、传输直到消费的整个过程形成了一个相对完整的电力供应链。伴随着改革的进程,中国电力从“厂网分开,竞价上网”,再到“输配分离,自负盈亏”,传统的垂直一体化电力供应链将被多个具有相对独立环节而又相互协作的新型电力供应链所取代。在市场经济条件下,围绕电能生产、传输和配送过程,由电煤供应商、发电商、输电商、配电商和客户等组成电力供应链联盟,各联盟成员之间既竞争又合作将是大势所趋。论文主要针对电力供应链联盟的运营管理过程,结合电力供应链联盟为保障客户经济、安全和可靠用电这一运营目标,以提高电力供应链联盟的敏捷性、协作性和控制运营风险为原则,综合运用计算机网络、商务智能、信息经济学和管理学等学科知识,分析信息经济时代IT对供应链联盟持续竞争优势及协同决策的作用机理,论述电力供应链联盟商务智能中心(Business Intelligence Center, BIC)的构建思想,研究BIC环境下电力供应链联盟在发电、供电和输电环节有关电煤采购、负荷预测、发电／购电协调和网架规划等协同决策问题,旨在探讨电力供应链联盟通过谋求信息流、资金流和物流的协同进而达到联盟管理效率和效益最大化的实现方法。为此,论文主要研究了如下内容：(1)研究了信息经济时代IT与电力供应链联盟持续竞争优势及协同决策的关系。电力供应链联盟协同决策的实现有赖于多种过程、多种流程、多种方法、多种技术和多种知识等资源的协同进行,然而信息技术是支持电力供应链联盟协同决策最为关键的要素。论文在阐述供应链相关理论的基础上,论述了电力供应链联盟运营管理的控制机制及其协同决策类型,探讨了IT能力的形成及其对电力供应链联盟持续竞争优势和协同决策的支持效用,研究了协同决策中的协同维及其协同机理,给出了基于IT的电力供应链联盟战略信息资源管理功能整合架构,为电力供应链联盟商务智能中心(BIC)的构建和协同决策奠定了理论基础。(2)提出了电力供应链联盟商务智能中心(BIC)的构建方案。分析了电力供应链联盟商务决策所面临的诸多问题,论述了电力供应链联盟BIC的功能、物质载体及构成要素,探讨了构建电力供应链联盟BIC的关键支撑技术,给出了面向协同决策的电力供应链联盟BIC的整体架构和协同决策实施结构,构建了基于BIC的电力供应链联盟信息共享模型、信息集成模型和界面管理模型,从而为电力供应链联盟的协同决策奠定了信息技术和应用基础。(3)构建了BIC环境下电力供应链联盟在发电环节电煤供应与采购管理的协同决策模型。在分析电煤供应商与发电商合作模式的基础上,论证了电煤供应商与发电商之间的利益博弈关系,探讨了双方合作建立联盟的必要性,并在确定电煤供应商选择标准的前提下,设计了基于BIC的电煤供应商合作伙伴选择模型的基本架构,构建了基于BIC的煤电联盟协同采购决策架构及其电煤协同采购决策模型,为煤电企业建立联盟合作及其利益协商机制进行了必要的探索。(4)构建了BIC环境下电力供应链联盟在供电环节的负荷预测与交易协同决策模型。结合风险元传递理论,考虑未确知风险因素,在BIC环境下,利用电力信息库,结合模型库中的Elman’s递归神经网络模型,构建了电力负荷预测模型,并通过算例验证了所建模型的有效性。另外,以配电商购电费用最低、发电商机组出力最优为目标函数,构建了差价合约下供电环节供应链联盟在合约市场、现货市场、备用市场和可中断负荷交易市场上的交易决策模型,这对于优化电力资源配置有重要的意义。(5)构建了BIC环境下电力供应链联盟在输电环节面向电网规划的多目标协同决策模型。在给出面向电网规划的电力供应链联盟BIC协同决策结构的基础上,论述了电网规划决策知识库和模型库的创建思路,借助进化算法、灰色粒子群优化、神经网络和集对分析等方法构建了输电环节多目标电网规划的协同决策模型,并通过算例证明了所建模型在理论上的科学性和合理性。选题不仅有理论探讨意义,而且有重要的实际应用价值和推广应用前景。更多还原

【Abstract】 From production, transmission and consumption of power, the whole process formed a relatively complete power supply chain. With the process of reform, from "separation of grid and power plant, electricity price bidding" to "separation of transmission and distribution, be financially responsible for profits or losses" for china power, the traditional vertical integration power supply chain will be replaced by new power supply chain which has multiple relatively independent links and mutual cooperation. Under the conditions of market economy, centering on the process of power production, transmission and distribution, the power supply chain alliance is composed of power coal suppliers, generation companies, transmission companies, distribution utilities and customers, and both competition and cooperation between all members of the alliance will be a general trend.According to the operations management process of power supply chain alliance and combining with the operational objectives of power supply chain alliance for guaranteeing customers’ economy, safety and reliable electricity consumption, this dissertation comprehensively applies various disciplines’ knowledge, such as computer network, business intelligence, information economics, management, in the analysis of action mechanism of IT for the sustainable competitive advantage and collaborative decision-making of power supply chain alliance in the era of information economy based on the principle of improving the agility, coordination and control operation risk of power supply chain alliance. Then the construction idea of business intelligence center for power supply chain alliance is discussed and the related collaborative decision-making problems of power coal purchasing, load forecasting, coordination of generating and purchasing, network planning and so on for power supply chain alliance in the circulation of generating, supplying and transmission under the environment of BIC are studied, which aims at exploring the method for power supply chain alliance to achieve management efficiency and benefit maximization by seeking the coordination of information flow, capital flow and material flow. So this dissertation mainly studies the following contents:(1) The relationship among IT in the era of information economy, the sustainable competitive advantage and the collaborative decision-making of power supply chain alliance is studied.The realization of power supply chain alliance collaborative decision-making depends on the coordination of multi-resources, such as multiple processes, flows, technologies and knowledge. However, information technology is the most critical factor which can support the collaborative decision-making for power supply chain alliance. On the basis of discussing the related theory of supply chain, this dissertation discusses the control mechanism and the type of collaborative decision-making of power supply chain alliance’s operation management, explores the supporting function of IT capability for power supply chain alliance’s sustainable competitive advantage and collaborative decision-making, studies synergy dimension and collaborative mechanism in the collaborative decision-making and presents the strategic information resources management functional integration framework of power supply chain alliance based on IT, which lays a theoretical foundation for the construction of BIC and the collaborative decision-making of power supply chain alliance.(2) The construction scheme of BIC in the power supply chain alliance is proposed.Many problems faced by business decision of power supply chain alliance are analyzed and the functions, material carrier and components of BIC in the power supply chain alliance are discussed. Then the key supporting technology for constructing power supply chain alliance is explored, the whole frame and the collaborative decision-making implementation structure of BIC in power supply chain alliance oriented towards collaborative decision-making are given, and the information sharing model, information integration model and the interface management model of power supply chain alliance based on BIC are constructed which lays the information technology and application foundation for the collaborative decision-making of power supply chain alliance.(3) The collaborative decision-making model of power coal supply and procurement management for the power supply chain alliance in the generation circulation under the environment of BIC is constructed.On the basis of analyzing the cooperation patterns of power coal suppliers and generators, this dissertation demonstrates the game relationship of benefit between power coal suppliers and generators, discusses the necessity of establishing alliance, and designs basic structure for the selection of power coal suppliers’ partner based on BIC. Then the collaborative procurement framework and the collaborative procurement decision-making model of coal and power alliance based on BIC are constructed, which gives the essential exploration for coal and power enterprises building alliance and their benefit consultation mechanism.(4) The load forecasting model and transaction collaborative decision-making model in the power supply circulation of the power supply chain alliance under the environment of BIC are established.Combining risk transfer theory and considering the uncertain risk factors, this dissertation uses the power information base, combines Elman’s recursive neural network model in model base, and constructs the power load forecasting model. Then the validity of the built model is demonstrated by the example. In addition, the transaction decision-making model for supply chain alliance on contract market, spot market, reserve market and interruptible load trading market under the contract for difference in power supply circulation is constructed, which has the important significance for optimizing electric power resource configuration.(5) The multi-objective collaborative decision-making model which is used for the power supply chain alliance facing grid planning in transmission circulation under the environment of BIC is constructed.On the basis of giving the collaborative decision-making structure of BIC in power supply chain alliance oriented towards power grid planning, the creative ideas on knowledge base and model base of the grid planning are discussed. The collaborative decision-making model of multi-objective grid planning in the transmission circulation is constructed by using of evolutionary algorithm, gray particle swarm optimization, neural network and set pair analysis method, and the rationality and scientific property of the built model in theory is demonstrated by the example.The topic not only has theoretical discussion meaning, but also has important practical application value and good prospect of application and extension.更多还原