【作者】 张雄辉；

【导师】 范爱军；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 博士

【副题名】基于中国、韩国比较分析视角

【摘要】 经济增长问题既是经济学领域所研究的重要问题,也是人们十分关注的现实问题。技术进步和技术效率既是经济增长的核心因素,同时也是经济发展的源泉。中国自改革开放以来经济增长突飞猛进,使得国内外学者对我国经济增长源泉问题的研究一直没有停止过。然而,多数学者认为：目前中国经济的高速增长主要是依靠资本、劳动以及能源等要素投入的不断增加来实现的,增长方式明显以粗放型为主。韩国仅用三十年左右的时间就发展成为新兴工业化国家,开创了发展中国家最成功的经济发展模式。韩国经济发展的事实表明：技术进步和创新能力已经成为国家经济发展的一个决定因素。纵观韩国经济发展中的成功经验,对中国具有很大的启发性,值得中国研究和借鉴。鉴于此,本文运用比较分析法和规范与实证相结合的方法,紧紧抓住技术进步、技术效率对经济增长的贡献这个主题,从宏观经济持续增长角度入手,借助经济增长与技术进步、技术效率关系的计量经济模型进行了系统、定性以及定量地研究,从理论和实证两方面综合解释和测度了技术进步、技术效率对经济增长的贡献,为政府合理地选择经济发展战略,实现经济发展方式转变提供依据。本研究共分为七章,主要研究内容和基本结构如下：第一章是导论。阐述论文选题的背景、研究目的与意义、研究思路与方法、研究的技术路线与创新之处,并阐述了论文分析框架与研究内容。第二章是理论借鉴与研究综述。一是综合概括了经济增长理论、技术进步理论以及技术效率理论；二是对国内外研究现状进行述评。第三章是技术进步、技术效率对经济增长贡献的理论分析。分析了技术进步、技术效率和经济增长三者之间的关系,并且构建了相应的分析模型,为实证分析奠定基础。第四章是技术进步、技术效率对中国经济增长贡献的实证分析。通过构建相应的计量模型,运用统计软件对中国的样本数据进行实证研究。第五章是技术进步、技术效率对韩国经济增长贡献的实证分析。通过构建相应的计量模型,运用统计软件对韩国的样本数据进行实证研究。第六章是技术进步、技术效率对中国和韩国经济增长贡献的比较分析。根据前面两章的实证分析结果,结合中国和韩国国情,对技术进步、技术效率对中国和韩国经济增长贡献进行比较,进一步阐述了韩国经验对中国经济发展的启示,以及在今后的发展实践中要如何借鉴韩国经验。第七章是研究结论和研究展望。通过对全文的总结,归纳出本研究的总体结论,并对后续研究进行展望。本文围绕“技术进步、技术效率对经济增长贡献”这一主题,遵循“全面、协调与可持续发展”的价值取向,基于技术视角,构建可持续内生经济增长理论框架,解析经济持续增长的内在规律与统一逻辑。通过采用DEA等方法以中国、韩国为样本,从技术进步、技术效率对经济增长贡献的层面进行深入的理论和实证分析,全面阐释技术对经济增长的贡献度,并对中国、韩国技术进步、技术效率对经济增长的贡献进行对比分析。结合实证研究结论,对比分析中国、韩国技术进步和技术效率对经济增长的贡献,探寻符合内在规律的技术因素,分析并提出实现中国经济可持续增长的技术路径。通过全面考察和分析,得出以下研究结论：第一,1978—2006年,中国和韩国的全要素生产率都处于上升趋势,但全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献韩国高于中国。这符合两国经济发展的事实,韩国在这一阶段经济发展迅速,并且完成了工业化过程。而中国处于改革开放的探索阶段,或者说处于渐进式改革,“摸着石头过河”的阶段。第二,从分解因素来看,1978—2006年,韩国技术进步对经济增长的贡献高于中国技术进步对经济增长的贡献。而中国技术进步的波动幅度明显大于韩国的技术进步波动幅度。同期韩国技术效率的平均值略低于中国的平均值,说明这个阶段中国的技术效率得到提高,而韩国的技术效率值与以前相比则略有下降。其主要原因在于两国经济发展中技术进步的作用不同以及技术起步的基础不同而导致的。或者说韩国的技术进步发展到了一定阶段以后遇到瓶颈亟待突破。第三,相关影响因素中的进口依存度对中国TFP影响最大,但影响系数逐年下降。从某种程度上反映了我国“进口开放式”的技术引进模仿型技术进步路径。影响系数逐步降低反映了此种技术进步路径对技术进步的作用逐渐降低。而韩国金融发展、研发投入占GDP的比重以及滞后一期的TFP对全要素生产率影响显著。在所有解释变量中,研发投入占GDP的比重对全要素生产率的影响系数最高。进一步分析可以看出,韩国进口规模对全要素生产率的影响系数从1961—1982年样本的0.044降低到1982—2006年样本的0.005。这在一定程度上反映了韩国在经济发展初级阶段的技术引进模仿,而后通过消化吸收自主再创新,进而逐步减少了对国外技术依赖性。第四,1997—2006年,中国的科教事业费支出比、R&D投入比以及进口依存度对技术进步影响明显,但是研发人员从业比和技术进步为负相关。反映中国技术进步来自影响系数最为显著的技术模仿,而不是来自技术创新。在1982—2006年韩国样本估计结果中,R&D投入比、研发人员从业比和科教事业费支出比对技术进步影响显著,而进口依存度却呈负相关。这正好揭示了韩国技术进步的路径：由引进消化吸收再创新到自主创新。第五,通过对技术进步、技术效率对中韩两国经济增长贡献的比较分析,结合中国现实情况,本文得出未来一段时期内,中国应该在借鉴韩国成功经验基础上,重点实施以下战略：采取适宜技术战略；坚持“自主创新”；增加研究开发投入,鼓励企业加强研究开发活动；以国产化为目标的引进再创新；建设国际品牌,促进高科技企业发展壮大；充分发挥政府在促进产业技术创新的作用等。对于一个国家而言,存在一个使其经济遵循最优增长路径的技术水平,并且这个技术水平随一个国家经济的发展呈动态升级。如果一个国家采用的技术偏离这个水平,其经济增长也将偏离最优路径,从而造成其经济发展绩效低下。因此,一个国家在其经济发展过程中不仅仅应该注意技术发展路径,同时也要关注随着经济的发展而引起的技术进步与技术效率,从而使得其经济保持快速、健康的发展。本研究拓展了内生经济增长理论与经济可持续增长的研究范畴,有助于学术界针对这一领域作更进一步的思考和研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic growth is one of the frontier problem in the field of economics, and also the practical problem that people are concerned. As the important factors in promoting economic growth:technological progress and technical efficiency, which are the core elements of economic growth and the sources of economic development. Since reform and opening up, China created a miracle of sustained high economic growth, which arouses academic circles’interest at home and abroad on the relationship among economic growth, technological progress, and technical efficiency. Many scholars thought that China’s high-speed economic growth mainly depended on the increasement of factors such as capital, labors and energy etc. The model of economic growth was mainly extensive. South Korea have developed as a newly industrialized country in just about 30 years, which created the most successful model of economic development in developing countries.The fact of economic development in South Korea shows that:technological progress and innovation have become key factors of a country’s economic development. South Korea’s successful economic development experience, which is worth studying and learning to China.In view of these, this paper uses comparative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis methods, grasps the theme on how the technological progress and technical efficiency take contribution to economic growth. We give systemic, qualitative and quantitative research with the help of econometric model of the relationship among economic growth, technological progress, and technical efficiency on a perspective of macroeconomic sustained growth. Then, we take comprehensive explanation and measurement on how the technological progress and technical efficiency take contribution to economic growth from theoretical and empirical angles. It will provide a scientific base on many aspects, such as how the government scientifically chooses strategies of economic development, how to promote the change of economic development mode.The study is divided into seven chapters, the main research contents and main structure are as follows:The first chapter is Introduction. It will set out the background of raising the question, research purpose, research ideas and methods, technical route and innovations of the study, and describes the analytical framework and research contents of this paper. The second chapter is theoretical learning and research summary. Firstly, we summarize the theories of economic growth, technological progress and technical efficiency; secondly, we review the status of research at home and abroad. The third chapter is theoretical analysis about the contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to economic growth. In this chapter we analyze the relationship among technological progress, technical efficiency and economic growth; at the same time we have constructed a corresponding model, which will be the base of empirical analysis. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis about the contribution of technological progress and technical efficiency to China’s economic growth. We do empirical research by constructing an econometric model and using statistical software on the sample data of China. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis about the contribution of technological progress and technical efficiency to South Korea economic growth. We give empirical research by constructing an econometric model and using statistical software on the sample data of South Korea. The sixth chapter is the comparative analysis about the contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to the economic growth between China and South Korea. According to the empirical results of previous two chapters, we do the comparative analysis about the contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to economic growth between China and South Korea according to China and South Korea’s national conditions. The seventh chapter is about the conclusions and prospects of this research. We will summarize the overall conclusions of the study and give prospects on the following research.Around the theme about contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to economic growth, on the technology-based perspective, this paper follows the value of "comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development", builds the framework of sustainable endogenous growth theory, analyzes inner rules and logic unity of sustained economic growth. This paper takes China and South Korea as an example, we give deeply theoretical and empirical analysis from the level of contribution of technological progress by using DEA and other methods. In addition, we give comprehensive interpretation about the contribution of technology to economic growth, and do comparative analysis about the contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to economic growth between China and South Korea. To combine the empirical results, we analyze China and South Korea’s technological progress and technical efficiency’s contribution to economic growth, and explore inherent technical factors. In the end, we put forward technological paths of economic sustainable growth in China and Korea. Through comprehensive investigation and analysis, we have drawn the following conclusions:Firstly, from 1978 to 2006, the TFP of China and South Korea showed an upward trend, but South Korea is higher than China on the contribution of TFP to economic growth. It is consistent with the facts of two countries’economic development stages. The fact is that, South Korea had rapid economic development and completed the process of industrialization at this stage; however, China was in the exploratory phase of reform and opening up, or in the stage of gradual reform and "exploring method".Secondly, through decomposition of the factors, it seems that South Korea was higher than China on the contribution of technological progress to economic growth from 1978 to 2006. But, China had greater volatility than South Korea in technological progress aspect. In the same period, the average of South Korea’s technical efficiency was slightly lower than China, which shows that China improved technical efficiency in the phase, while South Korea’s technical efficiency declined slightly compared with the previous in this phase. The main reasons lie in the different role of technological progress in economic development and the different base of technology of two countries. That is to say, South Korea’s technological progress encounters bottle-neck’s problem and needs to overcome after certain stage.Thirdly, in all the explanatory variables, import dependency has the highest influence coefficient in impact of China’s TFP, but the value of influence coefficient declines. This fact not only reveals imitation-based technological progress paths of China’s "imported open-end" technology introduction in certain extent, but also we can see from the reduction of influence coefficient that technological progress effects which due to technological path have been slow in the overall sample. In South Korea, financial development, the ratios of R&D investment sharing in GDP and the lagged TFP have obvious effects to total factor productivity. In all explanatory variables, the ratio of R&D investment sharing in GDP has the highest influence coefficient.Through comparing the two sample results, we can find that the influence coefficient of import scale’s impact on total factor productivity reduced from 0.044 to 0.005 in the years of 1982-2006. In certain extent, it reflects that South Korea takes technology imitation in the initial stage of economic development, and then has re-innovation through digesting and absorbing, which make its dependence on foreign technology decrease.Fourthly, from China’s sample estimated results in the years of 1997-2006, we find that import dependence, R&D ratio of investment and expenses, expenditure on science and education, have significant effects on technological progress, however the ratio of researcher and designer has negative relation. This clearly reveals the fact that technological progress does not come from technology innovation, but comes from technology imitation. From South Korea’s sample estimated results in the years of 1982-2006, we find that R&D ratio of investment and expenses, the ratio of researcher and designer, expenditure on science and education, have significant effects on technological progress, however import dependence has negative relation. This exactly reveals the technological progress path of South Korea-from the introduction of digestion and absorption of re-innovation to the independent innovation.Fifthly, through comparative analysis about the contribution of technological progress, technical efficiency to economic growth between China and South Korea, combining with the realities of China, this paper suggests that China should focus on implementing the following strategies on the base of reference for South Korea successful experience in the future:adopting appropriate technology strategies; adhering to the "independent innovation";increasing R&D investment and encouraging enterprises to strengthen R&D activities; re-innovating in introduction taking localization as a goal; building an international brand and promoting high-tech enterprises’development and growth; playing full role of the government in promoting industrial technological innovation, and so on.For a country, there is a technological level which can make economy follows the path of optimal growth, and this technological level can upgrade with the development of national economy. If the technology of one country used deviate from this level, its economic growth will also deviate from the optimal path, resulting in poor performance of its economic development. Thus, in the process of economic development of a country, it should not only pay attention to technology development path, but also have to concern with the technological progress and technical efficiency arising from economic development, accordingly making rapid and healthy development of economy. This study extends the endogenous growth theory and the research category of sustainable economic growth, which will contribute to the academic make further consideration and research focusing on this area.更多还原