【作者】 陈贤银；

【导师】 段豫川；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文是基于产业安全视角的我国农业产业外资并购效应研究。本文拟在现有研究的基础上,以系统思想为指导,整合产业经济学、国际经济学、农业经济学、现代并购理论等学科成果,运用比较分析法、实证分析法、博弈分析法、逻辑思辨法等分析方法,通过对产业安全理论和外资并购理论的分析,梳理东道国产业安全和外资并购之间的相互关系,建立基于东道国产业安全的外资并购机制模型,对我国农业产业领域的外资并购的效应进行实证研究,并在分析我国农业产业安全的现状和借鉴他国外资利用、维护产业安全的实践的基础上,提出我国农业产业应对外资并购与维护农业产业安全的调控框架。一、论文的研究内容1、基于产业安全视角的外资并购效应理论框架研究。作为本研究的理论起点,批判性梳理产业安全理论、外资并购理论；提出了基于产业安全的外资并购作用机理理论模型；作为本研究的理论拓展,仔细分析外资并购对农业产业安全的作用机理。2、我国农业产业的外资并购效应实证研究。从宏观层面,运用计量模型分析外资进入对我国农业产业的结构效应、技术溢出效应；从微观层面,运用计量模型分析外资并购我国农业类上市公司的股市效应、财务效应,判断外资并购对我国农业龙头企业的绩效提升有何影响；对我国大豆产业发展中的外资并购问题进行案例分析。3、从产业安全角度对我国农业产业应对外资并购的调控框架研究。利用相关数据分析我国农业产业外资并购的现状和存在问题,并运用评价模型对我国农业产业安全度进行评价；分析比较发达国家和发展中国家应对农业产业外资并购的经验与教训；从产业限入、垄断性并购判定和外资并购的审批程序等方面,提出在我国农业产业领域构建一套完善的产业安全防范体系的外资并购调控框架,包括相关的政策集合和产业安全保障机制构建。二、论文的基本结论1、外资利用对我国农业产业结构效应不明显,农业产业一直处于绝对劣势地位。外资利用得好,对我国产业结构战略性调整发挥着重要作用,可以推动农业技术升级改造,促进新兴工业的发展,带动第三产业的发展,但我国第一产业外资总量偏低,并呈下降趋势；第一产业的外资利用区位商一直保持较低的水平,处于绝对劣势地位,第二产业处于绝对优势地位,第三产业外资利用规模和力度在不断增强。由于我国产业结结构本身就存在偏差,外资投向差异性会加大产业结构性偏差,这会导致正常的外资利用产业结构效应失效,加剧产业结构的不协调,增加我国产业结构战略性调整的难度,影响我国农业产业的可持续发展,从而影响我国农业产业安全。2、外资利用对我国农业产业技术溢出效应不明显,对农村经济发展贡献极小。在外资大量涌入我国、外资并购日益活跃的背景下,外资经济对国我农业产业发展并未起到应有作用,这说明我国农业领域的引资存在效率问题,我们在引资过程中必须注重质量和效果,不能一味追逐数量和速度。3、短期内外资并购对我国农业类上市公司股市有显著负效应,但长期内呈显著正效应。通过分析外资并购我国农业类上市公司的股市效应,我们发现,外资并购前后短期内股市反常收益率显著为负,外资并购后股市长期反常收益率显著为正。表明在并购发生时,投资者已掌握并购事件的乐观预期,由于交易日信息已经公开,外资并购的利好消息刺激股价上涨,是典型的“见光死”,在长期内外资并购对上市公司的正效应逐渐体现。4、外资并购除能显著改善现金流量外,对改善我国农业类上市公司其它财务状况有一定效果,但不显著。外资并购后,经营现金流量得到了显著提升,但加权净资产收率、加权资产收益率、现金流动负债比、资产负债率、存货存转率、应收帐款周转率、净资产收益增长率等指标均有所提升,可不显著；流动比率、主营收入增长率两项指标有所下降,但不显著。5、外资控制致使我国大豆产业存在边缘化危险,必须防止大豆产业悲剧在其它农业产业上重演。外资通过控制我国大豆生产原料供应、大豆定价方式、并购大豆压榨企业,致使我国从大豆生产大国、出口大国变成进口大国,品种资源严重受制于人,我们必须从农业产业安全的立场,反思我国农业产业发展政策、贸易政策等,提高我国农业产业的整体竞争力。6、我国农业产业总体还处在“基本安全”状态,但在产业创新度、农产品竞争力、农业资源与环境、农业生产状况等方面表现出“很不安全”、“不安全”。从外资对农业生产能力、农业国际竞争力、产业控制力等角度对我国农业产业安全现状做了定量和定性分析表明,我国农业产业总体为基本安全,农业是国民经济的基础,农业安全是经济安全的基础,农业产业安全必须引起高度重视,切实采取有效应对之策。三、论文的创新点1、初步建立了一个基于产业安全视角的外资并购理论分析框架。首先,外资并购和产业安全之间在理论上存在着密切的关系,本文研究了二者之间的关系,对前者影响后者的作用机理给出了详尽的理论分析；其次,本论文建立了基于东道国产业安全的外资并购模型；再次,本论文通过计量模型计算了外资并购对于农业产业安全的影响程度,使得外资并购的影响能够进行量化；最后,国内基于农业产业安全的外资并购体系的研究极少,本论文尝试在这方面提供一个分析的框架。实际上,从东道国产业安全的角度研究外资并购问题本身就比较有新意。2、对我国农业产业的外资并购效应进行实证分析,尝试性利用考察外资并购效应的方法确定外资利用对东道国产业安全的影响。本研究用实证分析法分析了外资并购的宏观效应(产业结构效应、技术溢出效应)、中观效应(以大豆产业为案例)、微观效应(股市效应、财务效应)。综合运用考察外资并购效应的方法确定外资利用对于东道国产业安全的影响,国内学者鲜有尝试。本文不但提出这种尝试的理论可能性,而且在实证上证明了这种方法的可行性。此外,本文还运用外资并购影响东道国产业安全的评价指标体系,综合运用相关统计数据,突出外资并购在评价产业安全时的权重,以确定外资并购影响产业安全的程度。3、基于产业安全视角,尝试性构建了我国农业产业应对外资并购的调控框架,包括农业产业政策调控框架和外资并购安全审查保障机制。目前国内对于应对外资并购的政策管制政策较少,其相关的文献研究也不够丰富,更不可能形成一个有效的管制框架。本研究尝试系统地构建一个基于东道国产业安全的外资管制的政策体系框架,并重点探讨了产业安全审查机制,认为在开放条件下我国对外资并购中的农业产业和农业企业应加以适度保护的政策建议,当然其适用性有待评判。四、论文的政策建议1、构建国家农业产业安全预警体系。需要辩证地对待外资对我国农业企业的并购问题,一方面要积极利用外资对我们农业产业发展的促进作用,另一面又要建立农业产业安全预警体系,预防农业产业风险,维护农业产业安全。为了更好的衡量农业产业安全状态,构建一个科学、合理的农业产业安全预警体系,本文选取了下列指标作为农业产业安全预警体系指标。(1)农业产业发展力指标；(2)农业产业国际竞争力指标；(3)产业对外依存度指标；(4)产业控制力指标；(5)并购企业的诚信和业绩指标。2、完善以反垄断法为核心的法律体系。(1)完善《反垄断法》的配套措施,增强《反垄断法》的核心地位；(2)加快完善《证券法》和《公司法》中对外资并购的法律规定；(3)完善其他的一些对外资并购进行规定的行政法规。3、形成主动利用外资的工作体系。(1)多方引进外资,使外资并购母国多元化。我们要制订一个鼓励外资引进多元化的政策,避免对单个国家外资的过度依赖,才能最大程度的保护本国产业安全；(2)有选择的利用外资。我们要更多地关注引进外资的质量,对本身质量不高的外资在我国的并购要进行重点审查,坚决维护我国产业利益；(3)理智把握“以市场换技术”的战略。既要继续加大对外开放程度,积极引进外资,获得外资企业的技术；又要在外资并购中,掌握主动权,着眼于产业的长远利益,绝对不能因一时的利益,而牺牲掉国家产业安全；(4)逐步取消对外资的优惠政策,改善投资环境,引进高质量的外资,减轻内资负担；(5)争取掌握合资公司的控制权,保护本国产业的健康发展。4、加强农业龙头企业自我发展体系。(1)鼓励行业内大型企业合作,形成战略联盟；(2)要加大对农业研发的资金投入,增强企业自主创新的意识,提高我国企业的技术水平；(3)加强对农业领域专业人才的培养；(4)加强对民族品牌的保护,以提高应对外资并购的抗衡能力。5、强化产业安全保障机制。(1)准入机制。审批机关在外资进入我国农业产业时对外资主体的净资产收益率、总资产报酬率、资产负债率、销售增长率、注册资本、全球市场占有率、并购后国内市场占有率、历次并购后持有的年份等指标设定一定的标准,当外资公司不满足这些指标条件时,就否决外资公司的并购。(2)预警机制。在农业产业安全评价的基础上,选取外资并购后的一系列评价指标,在对指标进行科学、合理地分析,适度、适时地向有关部门发出警告,并协助相关部门制定相应措施,保护农业产业安全的机制。科学合理的农业产业安全预警机制包括农业产业安全预测机制和农业产业安全警报机制。(3)安全审查机制。加快建立我国的外资并购的安全审查机构：制定科学合理的外资并购审查程序；制订外资并购的审查标准；成立外资并购重大项目审查委员会；建立中介机构产业安全审查服务制度。(4)持续监管机制。在外资并购后对外资并购合同的履行情况、合资公司的内部治理情况进行监管。对外资并购合同的监管包括资金投入、技术投入、人员配备是否到位,承诺的一些事项是否正在进行或是已经完成。对合资公司内部治理情况的监管包括合资公司有无违反合同大势进行人事更换,或是公司股权的实质性转移。构建持续监管机制需要在监管机构中成立专门的监管部门,配以专门的监管人员。对外资并购的持续监管可以最大程度保证并购合同的履行,维护农业产业安全。(5)退出机制。外资并购公司在并购后违反并购合同或是无力继续履行并购合同、外资公司意愿提前退出、外资公司做出其他威胁国内农业产业安全行为时,由监管机构组织并监管外资公司退出国内市场的制度安排。退出机制是维护本国产业利益的最后一道防线,在保护本国产业安全中具有重要作用。(6)互补机制。随着全球经济的发展,一国经济日益受到国际因素的影响,这对发展中国家来说,单靠一个国家的力量来维护本国产业安全已越来越困难。而积极进行区域合作,参加国际经济组织就成了各国维护本国产业安全经济、实际的手段。区域合作的最大优点就是在成员国的产业安全受到威胁时,各成员国能团结起来一起抵制外资并购力量,从而增加本国产业的安全度。我国也要加强国际合作,分享在农业产业保护方面的经验,探索农业产业保护的新渠道,并经济利用国际积极组织进行合作和争端解决。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation focuses on mergers and acquisitions’ effect (M&As’effect) in China’s agro-industry based on industrial security. This dissertation systematically integrates subject achievement including Industrial Economics, International Economics, Agricultural economics, modern Theory of Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions, applies various methods including Comparison Analysis, Empirical Analysis, Game Analysis, Logical Thinking Analysis, analyzes theory of industrial security and theory of foreign investment M&As, heckles reciprocal relationship between hostcountry industrial security and foreign investment M&As, establishes M&As mechanism model, empirically analyzes foreign investment M&As’effect in China’s agro-industry, in conclusion puts forward regulatory framework of coping with foreign investment M&As and maintaining agro-industrial security in our country.Ⅰ.Contents of Research in the dissertationⅰ. Theoretical framework of foreign investment M&As’ effect based on industrial security. As start point, this part critically integrates theories of industrial security and foreign investment M&As, puts forward mechanism model of action, and then analyzes foreign investment M&As in agro-industry in depth as an extension.ⅱ. Empirical analysis of foreign investment M&As effect in China’s agro-industry. This part puts econometric model into use from macro-level and industry-level, analyzes structural effects and spillover effects of foreign investment entry into China’s agro-industry. And then this part empirically analyzes stock effects and financial effects of foreign investment M&As of China’s agro-industrial listed companies. And then this part analyzes foreign investment M&As of Soybean Industry as a case study.ⅲ. Regulatory framework of coping with agro-industrial foreign investment M&As based on industrial security. This part statistically analyzes present situation and problems in foreign investment M&As of China’s agro-industry, and appraises agro-industrial security degree applying evaluation model. And then this part analyses experience Lessons from developed countries and developing countries, and puts forwards regulatory framework including relevant policy collection and protection mechanism of industrial security.Ⅱ. Main Conclusions in the dissertationⅰ.Industrial structure effect of Foreign Capital utilization on agro-industry is inconspicuous. The amount of foreign capital in primary industry and it exhibits moderating trend. The Location Quotient (LQ) of foreign capital in primary industry keeps low level. Foreign capital’s divergence aggravates industrial deviation, hinders agro-industrial sustainable development and then impacts agro-industrial security.ⅱ.Technology spillover effect of foreign capital utilization in agro-industry is not obvious,which is less contribution to agro-industrial development. At the background of increasingly foreign investment M&As, foreign capital economy does not play a due role,which accounts for investment attraction’s inefficiency in agro-industry.ⅲ. The foreign investment M&As’ effect is significant negative effect to agricultural listed companies in short term, but it is significant positive effect in long term. It is found that abnormal rate of return is significant negative in short term, whereas it is significant positive in long term when foreign investment M&As happens.ⅳ. Foreign investment M&As cannot significantly improve financial status other than cash flow of agricultural listed companies. Cash flow is significantly ascending, but ROE, ROA, DAR, Receivables Turnover are ascending but not significant. Liquidity ratio, growth ratio of Prime operating revenue is descendant but not significant.ⅴ. Marginalization risk of foreign investment control exits in Soybean Industry. Foreign investment control material supply, pricing, buying soybean enterprises, which results in Soybean manufacturing country into importing country. We should self-reflect agro-industry development policies in order to upgrade the whole industrial competitiveness.ⅵ. China’s agro-industrial security is "Basic Safety" as a whole, but industrial innovation, Agro-based products competitiveness, agricultural resources and environment, agro-industrial production status is "no security". Agriculture is the foundation of national economy; agro-industrial security is the base of economic security. We should put a new premium on agro-industrial security and take some effective countermeasures.Ⅲ.Main Innovations in the dissertationⅰ.Take shape initially theoretical framework of foreign investment M&As in agro-industry based on industrial security. Firstly, this dissertation researches reciprocal relationship between foreign investment M&As and industrial security. Secondly, this dissertation establishes foreign investment M&As model based on host country industrial security. Thirdly, this dissertation calculates influence degree of foreign investment M&As on agro-industrial security. At length, this dissertation provides an analytical framework of agro-industrial foreign investment M&As. in practice, the issue of foreign investment M&As from the view of host country industrial security is an original analysis.ⅱ. Experimentzing empirical analysis of foreign investment M&As effect in China’s agro-industry. The research empirically analyzes macro effect, industrial effect and micro effect.. Domestic scholars rarely try out comprehensive methods of foreign investment M&As on host country industrial security. Furthermore, this dissertation exerts index system,using statistical data, calculates influence degree of foreign investment M&As effect on agro-industry standing out the weights of foreign investment M&As.ⅲ. Try to put forwards regulatory framework including relevant policy collection and protection mechanism of industrial security. At present, china does not very often adopt policies on control of foreign funds. The research systematically tries out building an effective regulatory framework based on industrial security, and believes our country should moderately protect agro-industry and agricultural enterprises. Of course, its applicability is judicial.Ⅳ. Some proposals on the related policies in the dissertationⅰ. Construct forewarning index system of national Agro-industrial security. For the sake of Measuring agro-industrial security, the study selects some indexes as follows:development power, competitive power, degree of dependence on foreign investments, control force and performance indexes.ⅱ. Construct legal system as the core of Anti-monopoly Act. We should take efficient measures such as consummating accompanying measures, consummating legal regulations on foreign M&As in Securities Law and Corporation Law, consummating other relevant laws and regulations on foreign M&As.ⅲ. Construct work system of active foreign capital’s utilization. These measures includes various introduction of foreign capital, selective foreign capital utilization, grasping "exchange market for technology" policy, phasing out preferential policy of foreign capital, controlling control right of joint-venture.ⅳ. Strengthen agricultural leading enterprises’ ego-development system. These measures includes encouraging business cooperation, enlarging funding input, intensifying personnel training, intensifying national brand’s protect. ⅴ. Intensify protection mechanism of industrial security. These measures include admission mechanism, early warning mechanism, security review mechanism, continuous supervision mechanism, logout mechanism, complementation mechanism.更多还原