【作者】 马建军；

【导师】 陈士俊；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 武器装备应急采办作为项目是一个复杂的系统工程,各类风险相伴而生,风险控制异常复杂。尤其是武器装备应急采办,风险控制的难度更是可想而知。然而武器装备应急采办风险的发生是有规律的,实践证明通过人类的实践活动风险是可以认识并加以控制的。由于识别风险、评估风险以及规避风险方法的优劣直接影响着武器装备应急采办的成败,因此,项目的风险管理已成为项目成败的关键所在。本文针对武器装备应急采办中经常出现的“拖进度、涨费用、降指标、项目放弃”等一系列问题,从装备应急采办需求风险、技术风险、费用风险、时间风险、能力风险、管理风险和环境风险等七个方面分析了武器装备应急采办的风险来源。借助于系统动力学分析了影响武器装备应急采办研制的内外因素及其相互关系,建立了基于综合集成方法的武器装备应急采办风险管理模型。运用项目管理理论、项目风险管理理论,结合武器装备应急采办管理理论对我国武器装备应急采办风险管理进行了系统的研究。通过对武器装备应急采办风险识别方法的研究,提出了武器装备应急采办全寿命周期阶段风险识别组合方案,分析了各阶段风险发生概率及后果的大小、项目的影响程度及其动态特性,构建了武器装备应急采办全寿命周期风险评估指标体系,给出了武器装备应急采办全寿命周期风险评估方法组合。通过分析项目的风险状况和特性,创建了定量分析方法和数学模型,并对某型导弹武器系统应急采办风险管理进行了实证研究。在此基础上提出了武器装备应急采办风险规避对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Weapon Equipment acquisition is complicated system engineering, all kinds of risk accompanies all the life-cycle, contingency acquisition risk is especially abnormality hard to control. The amount on risk identification and assess information directly affects the project of Weapon Equipment and extent of economic loss. However, the risk of Weapon Equipment contingency acquisition is presentable and can be understand and controlled by people’s research. So how to identify and assess risk better is up against the key of project.This paper studies deeply“behind schedule, spur spending, reduce guide line”of Weapon Equipment contingency acquisition, identification seven risk sources of equipment acquisition, requirement risk, technique risk, expenditure risk, time risk, ability risk, management risk and environment risk. Analyses the inner and outer complication by system dynamics method, establish risk integration management model for equipment acquisition. Risk management of Weapon Equipment contingency acquisition is elaborated in the paper through project management theories, risk management theories, and equipment acquisition management theories.By the research of the Weapon Equipment contingency acquisition risk identification, the paper lists the risk identifications scheme for equipment acquisition life-cycle. Analyses risk probability of ever stage, the aftereffect and the dynamic identity, establish the life-cycle risk assessment guideline system of weapon equipment contingency acquisition. List the methods of risk assessment for weapon equipment contingency acquisition. The risk status is well-know by the researcher. At the same time, model and elude strategy for various risk is put forwarded. In the end, the paper emphasizes on the viable methods------FAHP and Artificial Neural Network, and then it analyzes some missile contingency acquisition project by the method. Results indicate essential of the risk management in the contingency acquisition project.更多还原