【作者】 辛宝贵；

【导师】 马军海；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 越来越多的研究已经证实,将复杂动力学理论应用到经济管理领域有着非常重要的理论意义与现实意义。作为一个典型的动态经济管理系统,供应链系统的各要素之间既存在线性关系又存在非线性关系,各种多变的环境也使其状态随着时间变化而不断改变,进而令其行为变得更加复杂化和难以预测。过去这方面的研究主要集中在证明供应链系统存在混沌现象,但对于供应链系统如何产生分岔、混沌等复杂动力学行为却鲜有文献报道。而且,以前的研究都强调混沌行为对于供应链系统的负面影响,但现在已经有文献证明,在某些情况下混沌对于博弈系统的参与者甚至整个社会是有利的。本文对一类层递附生型供应链的成员企业产量博弈关系进行了详细分析,构建了一类博弈动力学模型,并运用非线性动力学的理论研究了其复杂动力学行为,为该类型供应链的研究和管理提供了一种新的方法与视角。本文主要完成了以下工作:1、在国内外相关研究成果的基础上,给出了层递附生型供应链的定义,分析了层递附生型供应链的拓扑结构,构建了基于有限理性的一类层递附生型供应链的成员企业产量博弈动力学模型,丰富并发展了供应链动态博弈建模理论。2、运用非线性动力学的相关理论对一类层递附生型供应链的成员企业产量博弈动力系统的复杂动力学行为进行了定性分析和数值模拟,并做了相应的经济学解释。3、运用混沌控制与反控制理论,分别建立了层递附生型供应链的成员企业产量博弈动力系统的控制与反控制模型,在理论研究、数值模拟和经济学解释的基础上,评价了几种典型的控制与反控制方案,给出了相关政策建议。4、分别以HYRD粉煤灰二级供应链和HDTR驱油剂三级供应链为案例,采用非线性最小二乘法,运用各自的历史产量数据估计出博弈动力学模型的参数,分析了模型的复杂动力学行为,并做了相应的经济学解释。本文的模型有着非常明晰的经济管理背景,不仅能够为企业组建和管理该类型供应链提供理论依据,还可以为政府的相关调控提供智力支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are more and more researches on the application of complex dynamics to economics and management. As a dynamic system of economics and management, a supply chain contains various linear and nonlinear relationships which can lead complex behavior. A supply chain system usually is affected by the environment. The supply chain’s status always varies with time, which makes the supply chain’s behavior more complex and more unpredictable. There is no researcher to study how the dynamic characteristics of a supply chain lead complex dynamical behavior. The former researches’ emphasis is the chaos negative effects on a supply chain, but Huang has proved that, in some sense, chaos is beneficial not only to all oligopolistic firms but also to the economy as a whole.With the nonlinear dynamics theories, the dissertation analyzes output game relationship among remembers in an adnascent-transfer supply chain, takes a game dynamics model, studies its complex dynamics behavior, and makes a case on the model. The main content of this dissertation is as follows:First, the dissertation presents the definition and topology structure of an adnascent-transfer supply chain, and builds a dynamics model of output game among remembers with bounded rationality,enriches modeling theory of dynamic game.Second, with the nonlinear dynamics theories, the dissertation analyzes the dynamics game model of an adnascent-transfer supply chain, performs some numerical simulation and make some corresponding explanation in economics.Third, with chaos control and anti-control theories, the dissertation builds control and anti-control game models of an adnascent-transfer supply chain respectively, makes some qualitative analysis and numerical simulation, compares some typical control and anti-control projects.At last, for the two supply chains case of HYRD and HDTR, the dissertation obtains their output game dynamics models with nonlinear Least-Squares, and makes corresponding complex dynamics analysis and explanation in economics.The dissertation’s model is derived from real world. It not only can provide theoretical basis for an enterprise to build this type supply chain, but also can give intellectual support for a government to control or anti-control it.更多还原