【作者】 曹卫东；

【导师】 贺国光；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 控制和减少航班延误是国内外民航管理工作的一个长期主要任务。通过航班数据分析,挖掘数据内在特征,并找出其中的延误与波及变化趋势,对航班延误问题的研究有重要指导意义。本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法深入研究了航班延误的理论问题,应用贝叶斯网络理论建立实际航班数据的贝叶斯网络模型,分析航班延误影响因素之间的因果关系,给出不同条件下航班延误的概率分布情况。重点研究了贝叶斯网络结构学习的理论方法问题。第一章概述,介绍了航班延误问题的提出,航班延误与波及问题特性分析,总结了国内外研究现状;描述了基于贝叶斯网络学习的知识发现过程;给出本文主要研究思路。第二章介绍贝叶斯网络学习,描述贝叶斯网络学习的基本概念,讨论了贝叶斯网络参数学习、贝叶斯网络结构学习、评分模型以及模型优化的主要方法。第三章提出了高评分优先遗传模拟退火贝叶斯网络结构学习算法,把解决组合优化问题的模拟退火搜索算法和遗传算法应用于贝叶斯网络的结构学习,有效避免高分个体误导种群发展方向所带来的早熟问题,以提高贝叶斯网络结构学习的精度。第四章提出了基于遗传禁忌搜索的贝叶斯网络结构学习算法,将禁忌搜索算法的思想应用于基于遗传算法的贝叶斯网络结构学习中,进一步改进了遗传算法的交叉和变异操作过程,以提高贝叶斯网络结构学习的效率。第五章采用数据挖掘典型数据集对本文提出的改进的贝叶斯网络结构学习算法HSPGSA和GATS进行实验分析,与传统的结构学习算法做了对比性研究,说明了方法的有效性和优越性。第六章构建了航班数据的贝叶斯网络模型。在以上理论研究的基础上,采集了实际民航航班数据,分别学习构建了大型枢纽机场航班离港延误模型,大型航空公司连续航班延误波及模型,进行了航班延误波及分析,分析结果有助于领导层进行航班延误相关问题管理决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 To control and reduce flight delays is a long-term and major task of civil aviation management both at home and abroad. To analyze flight data, discover their inner features and find out the changing tendency of flight delay and propagation plays a guiding role in researching flight delays.By an integrated quantitative and qualitative analysis, the theoretical problem of flight delay is studied in this dissertation. The Bayesian network theory is applied to establish a model with real flight data, to analyze the cause effect relationship of influencing factors in flight delays and to present the probability distribution of flight delays under different conditions.In chapter 1, the problem of flight delays, the analysis of flight delay and delay propagation, the summary of present research conditions both at home and abroad are introduced. The process of knowledge discovery based on Bayesian networks learning is described and the main research method of this dissertation is presented.In chapter 2, Bayesian networks learning and basic concepts are briefed. Main methods of parameter learning, structure learning, scoring model and model optimization of Bayesian networks are discussed.In chapter 3, the algorithm of high score priority of genetic-simulated annealing (SA)of Bayesian networks structure leaning is proposed. SA search algorithm and genetic algorithm (GA) of the optimization problem are applied into the structure learning to effectively avoid the prematurity of population development brought by high-score individuals misleading and to improve the precision of Bayesian networks structure learning.In chapter 4, the algorithm of Bayesian networks structure learning based on GA & TS (Taboo Search) is put forward. The method of TS algorithm is applied into the Bayesian networks structure learning based on GA to further improve the crossover and mutation processes so as to enhance the efficiency of Bayesian networks structure learning.In chapter 5, the representative data set of datamining is utilized to make experimental analysis on HSPGSA and GATS of improved Bayesian networks structure learning. The comparative studies with the traditional structure learning algorithm are made to explain the effectiveness and superiority of the method.In chapter 6, A Bayesian network model of flight data is established.On the basis of aforesaid theoretical studies, real civil flight data were collected, the departing flight delay model of large hub airport and the sequence flight delay propagation model of large airline companies are composed respectively to make flight delay propagation analyses. The result is helpful for the executive level to make decisions on related problems of flight delays.更多还原