【作者】 肖强；

【导师】 文礼章； 胡聃；

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 ， 生态学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 水对人类生活的生态环境也起着决定性作用,由于不合理的资源利用方式,忽视最小生态用水与生态环境的关系,导致一些地区或流域的生态环境恶化,并引发一系列生态环境问题。对于水资源合理配置遵循的原则是不应该只关注人类生产和生活用水,而应注重生态用水和人类用水协调。对已破坏的水资源生态系统的恢复与重建,应注重生态用水与人工用水并重。因此研究水资源对于实现水资源合理配置和优化,以加强经济、环境的可持续发展具有深远的意义。淮北市是一个资源贡献型城市,传统的支撑行业都是一些高耗水行业,水资源和经济发展的矛盾特别的突出。本文以淮北市水资源的合理配置为研究对象,借助的研究手段是投入占用产出技术。投入产出模型的理论基础是一般均衡理论,投入产出建模技术在解决结构问题方面具有优势,它揭示了系统各部门之间、各环节之间的内在联系和客观规律,但是投入产出建模技术具有很强的前提假定,使得投入产出建模技术缺乏灵活性。考虑各种方法的可行性,对混合编表法进行了改进,对编表流程进行了探讨。通过引入占用部分,将占用部分影响因素纳入水资源计算中,可以更全面、更合理的度量人类生活和生产活动对水资源需求的影响。在掌握淮北市经济系统行业用水特性的基础上,从三个层次讨论了建立淮北市水资源合理配置的途径,包括调整生产结构、调整最终需求结构、调整中间投入结构。对淮北市的直接用水系数,完全用水系数,生态用水系数进行了实证研究,并以影响完全用水系数和用水总量为对象的用水主系数进行了实证。最后以淮北市为例进行了因最终需求变动引起的水资源变动的结构分解实证分析。直接用水系数最低值7.21立方米／万元,最高1473.5立方米／万元。存在着少数直接用水系数显著高于其他部门的系数。大多数部门的用水系数相对比较低,主要分布在第二产业。就直接用水系数与完全用水系数而言,第一产业显著大于第二产业,第二产业又显著大于第三产业。就第二产业内部而言,基础工业用水强度最大,轻工业次之,高技术工业再次之。比较直接用水系数和完全用水系数,可以注意到直接用水系数大的行业,其直接用水系数与完全用水系数的差距越小,农业部门差异最小,仅为1.36倍,其他服务业部门差异最大,达到31倍。生态用水系数数值远远超过了完全用水系数,一般情况下,是完全用水系数的几倍和十几倍不等。生态用水系数最大的还是农业,林业,渔业,畜牧业。其次是食品制造业,纺织业,服装皮革羽绒制品业,木材加工及家具制造业,化学工业,电力、燃气和水的生产和供应业。以完全用水系数之和为研究对象,边际用水主系数的分布具有以下规律：本部门对本部门产品的直接消耗系数占有很大的比例。42个边际用水主系数中有10个用水主系数在对角线上,占23.8%。对农业的直接消耗系数中,主系数占了7个,占16.7%。对电力、燃气和水的生产和供应业的直接消耗系数共有6个主系数,占14.28%,其次为化学工业的直接消耗系数5个,林业有4个主系数。平均用水主系数分布有不同于边际主系数的特点,分布相对集中。在24行中,平均用水主系数主要集中分布在6个行业,即对农业的直接消耗系数6个主系数,林业有5个主系数,食品制作业有3个主系数。化学工业的直接消耗系数4个主系数,电力、燃气和水的生产和供应业的直接消耗系数9个主系数。平均用水主系数和边际用水主系数相比较,可以发现两者中有重复的部分,在37个平均用水主系数中,有22个系数与边际用水主系数相同,15个主系数不同。在42个边际用水主系数中,相应有22个系数与平均用水主系数相同,27个系数不同。以用水总量为研究对象会得到相似的结果。比较以用水总量和完全用水系数为受影响对象的情况,可以注意到两个边际用水主系数有交叉现象。两者的交集部分共有24个直接消耗系数,两者的交集部分是水资源优化的关键点。在最终需求层面上对水资源进行了结构分解,把最终需求结构细分为：需求模式的影响、需求结构的影响和需求水平的影响。通过改变最终需求结构来优化水资源结构的方法,从实际操作来讲,可能存在较大的难度,但当地决策部门根据当地水资源的实际情况和水资源规划目标,制定出相应的法规还是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water plays a decisive role in the ecological environment of people’s life, the unreasonable utilization of resources and the neglect of the relationship between ecological use of water and ecological environment leads to the ecological deterioration in some regions and river basins while caused a series of ecological environment problems. For the reasonable allocation of water resources, we should follow the principle that we should not only pay attention to water use in living and production but also emphasize the coordination of ecological and domestic water use. For the ecological recovering and rebuilding of the damaged water resources ecosystem, we should pay equal attention to the water use for ecological and living purpose. Therefore, the study on water resources has profound significance in carrying out the reasonable allocation and optimization of water resources to strengthen the sustainable development of economy and environment.Huaibei is a city of resources-contribution type, the majority of the traditional support industries are high water consuming industries, and the contradiction between water resources and economic development is particularly acute. This study takes the reasonable allocation of water resources in Huaibei as the study object by using the Input-occupancy-output technology.The theory basis of input and output mode is General Equilibrium Theory, the input-output modeling technique has advantages in settling the structural problems which reveals the inner connection and objective laws among various departments and links, but the input and output modeling technique has strong premises which leads to the lack of flexibility of itself. In consideration of the feasibility of various methods, we make improvement on the mixed tabulating method and discussed the tabulation process. Bringing the effects of occupancy into the calculation of water resources by drawing into the occupancy part, which can measure the influences of people’s life and production activity on the demand of water resources in a more comprehensive and reasonable way.Based on mastering of the characters of water use in economic system in Huaibei, we discussed the way to build the reasonable allocation of water resources in Huaibei from three levels, including adjusting the production structure, adjusting the structure of the final demand, adjusting the structure of intermediate input.We carried out empirical research on the direct water use coefficient, total water use coefficient and ecological water use coefficient, and conducted a real research on the main water use coefficients which affects the total water use coefficients and the total amount of water use. Finally, taking Huaibei as an example, we carried out the empirical research on the structural decomposition of the changes in water resources caused by the final demand change.The smallest value of the direct water use coefficient is 7.21 cubic meter/￥10,000.-while the highest is 1473.5 cubic meter/￥10,000.-. There are a few of coefficients which its direct water use coefficients are higher than those of other departments. The water use coefficients in most of the departments are comparatively smaller, which mainly distributed in the secondary industry. For the direct and total water use coefficients, the coefficients in the primary industry are remarkably higher than those in the secondary industry, while the coefficients in the secondary industry are remarkably higher than those in the third industry. For the inner part of the secondary industry, the basic industry has the strongest water use intensity; the light industry takes the second place while the high tech industry follows. In comparison of the coefficients between the direct and the total water use, we can learn that, the departments with the greater direct water use coefficients, its difference between the direct water use coefficients and the total water use coefficients are smaller, the agricultural department has the smallest difference which is 1.36 times, while the difference among other service departments are the greatest, which can reach 31 times.The coefficients in ecological water use are far more than those in the total water use, in general, it is several or more than ten times of the total water use coefficients. The industry with the greatest ecological water use coefficients are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry. Secondly it is the food manufacturing, manufacturing of clothing, leather, and fur; wood processing and furniture manufacturing; chemical industry; production and supply of power, gas and water.Taking the summation of total water use coefficients as the research object, the distribution of main margin water use coefficients have the following law:the department accounts for a major part of the direct consumption coefficients of its products. Among the 42 main margin water use coefficients,10 of them are of the diagonal line, accounting for 23.8%. For the direct consumption coefficients in agriculture, the main coefficients take account for 16.7%, and there are 6 in production and supply of electric power, gas and water, which accounts for 14.28%, secondly, there are 5 in the direct consumption coefficients in chemical industry, while there are 4 in forestry. Different from the characters with the main margin coefficients in distribution of main coefficients, the average main water use coefficients are mainly distributed concentrative in 6 industries, of which 6 main coefficients are of direct consumption coefficients in agriculture, and there are 5 main coefficients in forestry, while 3 in food manufacturing industry. There are 4 main coefficients of direct consumption coefficients in chemical industry, while 9 main coefficients of direct consumption coefficients in production and supply of power, gas and water.In comparison of the average main coefficients and margin main coefficient of water use, we can learn that there are repetitions between them, in 37 of the average main coefficients of water use,22 are the same as the margin main coefficients of water use,15 are different. In the 42 margin main coefficients of water use, there are 22 coefficients are the same as the average main coefficients of water use, while 27 are different. Taking the total amount of water use as the study target, we always get the similar result.From the comparison conditions of the affected objects by the total amount of water use and total water use coefficients, we noticed that it exists overlapping phenomenon in the two main margin water use coefficients. There are 24 direct consumption coefficients in the overlapping part; the overlapping part is the key of the water resources optimization.Structural decomposition was carried out on the water resources from the final demand level, subdivided the final demand structure into:the influence of the demand model, the influence of the demand structure and the influence of the demand level. For the actual operation, there are great difficulties in optimizing the structure of water resources by changing the final demand structure, but it is feasible for the local government departments in charge to make corresponding policies and regulations according to the actual conditions of the local water resources and the water resources plan.更多还原