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有限理性视角下养老保险统筹层次提高问题研究

A Study on the Improvement of Overall Planning of Endowment Insurance from a Bounded Rationality Perspective

【作者】 马永华

【导师】 吕学静;

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 , 劳动经济学, 2010, 博士

【摘要】 养老保险制度在社会保险制度体系中具有重要地位,也是整个现代社会保障体系的核心之一。我国养老保险制度改革走过了20多年的发展历程,已经在全国初步建立了现代养老保险体系框架。虽然取得了一些成绩,但是仍然存在不少值得深入探索与研究的问题,这些问题直接影响着养老保险制度的正常发展,有必要对这些问题进行进一步的研究,找到问题产生的根源与解决方案,这无疑对继续深化养老保险制度改革具有十分重要的意义。目前,我国养老保险制度建立是以县市统筹为主,尚未实现全国统筹。由于养老保险统筹层次低,导致了基金管理风险、劳动力自由合理流动、扩大养老保险覆盖面等问题。按照养老保险发展的基本原理,统筹层次越高风险越小、保障程度越高,逐步提高统筹层次,最终实现全国统筹,以适应养老保险社会公平的本质要求,也是我国养老保险制度的发展方向。提升统筹层次过程中,政府是政策的主导者,其执行的效果直接影响政府政策的有效性。由于政府所处的环境具有复杂性和不确定性,导致其行为具有有限理性特征,深受利益偏好、目标模糊和信息不对称的约束。传统我们经常采用完全理性的假设,假定政府行为立足于严格的理性,均衡产生的过程是政府经过严密的逻辑运算而得到的一个最优化的结果。但现实有限理性的约束使他们难以做到传统假定下的最优化选择,应该说他们的选择很难达到,或者在短期内很难做到均衡。因此,现实的困境需要我们从有限理性假设的理论视角入手,分析其对我国养老保险统筹层次提高的作用和影响,并在此基础上,探索我国养老保险统筹层次提高的思路,从而保证统筹层次提高的有效实施。

【Abstract】 The pension insurance, as an essential component of the social insurance, is also one of the core componants in total social security system.In the course of China’s economic transition, the pension insurance system has undertaken a thirty-year reform, which leads to the nationwide establishment of the urban pension insurance system. Despite some achievements, there are still a lot of problems require deep study and further research. With the theoretical and practical study on these problems, the causes and solutions will be found. That, undoubtedly, will be of great practical significance for the further reforms in the pension system.At present, Pension insurance in our country is mainly based on county or city’ level since it was founded. China’s pension insurance is not overall planed by central government.The pooling level of pension fund is very low which is directly related to the degree of risk and even all existing problems in the pension insurance system, such as the rational flow of human resource, enlarging the pension insurance coverage. Based on the law of large numbers, the higher the level of the pooling is, the stronger ability the fund has to resist risks.Finally,pension insurance at the national level will be achieved to meet the essential requirement of the socialization of pension insurance. It is also the developing direction of the pension insurance system in our country.The government is the rules and regulations performers. Their execution effects immediatly influence government rules and regulationsv’ alidity.The government is affected by the objective fuzzy,profit preference and information asymmetry.Making choice is under bounded rationality and restricted by the instability of the knowledge,environment and information.The traditional theory is based on the complete rationality principle.The deduction process is based on the assumption of complete rationality. The equilibrium is an optimum result from the logical operation by the government.However,it is difficult for them to make the optimum choice under bounded rationality as under the traditional consumption.It is difficult for them to reach the equilibrium in short-term.Obtains from the limited rationalperson suppositions’ theoretical perspective, we can analysis the government behavior of the improvement of the overall planning of endowment insurance in China.In this basis, we explore the path of the improvement of the overall planning of endowment insurance,thus government behavior is guaranted to implement effectively.

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