【作者】 罗斐；

【导师】 王立杰；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 寻求能源、经济、社会、环境的协同发展,是世界各国政府面临的共同难题。能源、经济、社会、环境的协同是中国能源消费结构优化的基本标准。本文运用协同论、系统论、资源经济学、计量经济学、运筹学等基本理论,重点论述了基于协同论的中国能源消费结构优化的重要意义和主要内容；构建能源-经济-社会-环境协同评价模型并进行实证分析；运用马尔科夫改进模型和多目标规划模型,对中国能源消费结构进行了优化；结合能源消费结构优化的制约条件,探讨了中国能源消费结构优化的主要指标,揭示了中国能源消费结构优化的趋势；根据中国能源消费结构优化的问题提出了优化的对策。论文的创新点有：构建能源-经济-社会-环境协同评价模型,对能源、经济、社会、环境的协同现状进行了实证分析；利用“马尔科夫改进模型”,预测中国能源消费的序时趋势；利用“多目标规划模型”,分析中国能源消费结构的优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is the common problem that every national government is faced with seeking synergetic development of energy-economy-society-environment (EESE).The applying foundation about synergetic models of EESE is discoursed upon, and the primary contents of energy consumption structure optimization are dissertated by using synergetic theory, system theory, catastrophe theory, dissipative structure theory, continuable development theory, game theory, resources economics, econometrics, operational research and so on. The synergetic models of EESE are estimated with demonstration analysis. The energy consumption structure in China is optimized by using the improved Markov model and the model of multi-objective programming. The primary indexes of energy consumption structure optimization are discussed.The problems of energy consumption structure optimization based on synergetics are analyzed, while their countermeasures and new trends are opened out. The principal innovations of thesis are to estimate the synergetic appraising model of EESE and the cointegration-regression model of EESE, respectively giving a demonstration analysis about the synergetic actuality among energy, economy, society and environment; to estimate the improved Markov model, while the models are proved by using correlative theorem of matrix differential equation, carrying through the forecast in allusion to the developing trends of series in energy subsystem; to estimate the model of multi-objective programming, putting up the demonstration analysis and forecast in allusion to the configuration synergia and developing trends of energy subsystem, probing into the countermeasures of energy consumption structure optimization in China.更多还原