【作者】 李强；

【导师】 赵颖奇；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 我国正处于经济快速发展阶段,安全生产事故多发,造成惨重的人员伤亡和财产损失。为提升安全生产保障能力,重庆市安全生产监督管理局提出通过安全产业集约化发展实现“产业强安”的新思路。基于多智能体的仿真为此类经济决策提供了实验手段。论文以重庆市安全产业集约化模式的选择和实现途径为主线,开展了以下研究工作:(1)设立产业集约度作为产业集约化程度的度量指标从产业集约化的内涵和特征入手,将产业集约化评价分解为3个一级要素、11个二级要素、22个指标,采用模糊综合评价方法合成产业集约度,作为产业集约化程度的度量指标。为在仿真模型中应用,论文在JAVA环境下开发了产业集约度算法程序。(2)构建并开发基于多智能体的产业集约化演进仿真模型根据多智能体建模的思想,将产业视作一个复杂适应系统,构建产业集约化演进仿真模型(IIDM),设定需求Agent、供应Agent、科研Agent、政府Agent和银行Agent的行为规则及相关属性。产业基地模式下增加基地Agent,设置招商行为和协调行为。IIDM的输出为产业集约度。论文在JAVA环境下,运用面向对象的设计和编程方法,基于Swarm平台开发了IIDM模型仿真软件,为产业集约化研究提供了一个仿真实验室。(3)界定安全产业的内涵和分类,调研重庆市安全产业有关数据由于安全产业是一个新的研究课题,论文首先界定安全产业的内涵和分类。按照安全生产活动的属性将安全产业分为4个大类,根据部门管理需要和安全活动的特点将大类分为19个中类,根据安全活动的具体类别将中类细分为47个小类。在此基础上,调研重庆市安全产业现状,获取代表性产品的产能、成本、价格、需求量等数据。(4)论证产业基地模式是实现重庆市安全产业集约化发展的现实选择以调研数据为输入,运用IIDM模型,对现有模式、科技园区模式和产业基地模式下重庆市安全产业集约度的演变进行30年仿真实验(10800个仿真时间)。仿真实验显示,现有模式下安全产业的集约度在61左右波动,科技园区模式下安全产业的集约度在68左右波动,产业基地模式下安全产业的集约度在73左右波动。统计分析表明,集约度均值由现有模式的61.49提高到产业基地模式的73.09,证明产业基地模式能更好地促进安全产业集约化发展。产业基地模式是实现重庆市安全产业集约化发展的现实选择。(5)研究重庆市安全产业基地关键问题对重庆市安全产业基地的功能定位、建设选址、政府作用和运作管理等关键问题进行研究,提出相应对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s economic,production safety accidents occur constantly,resulting in heavy casualties and property losses.In order to enhance the safety of production,Chongqing Administration of Work Safety is planning to promote the intensive development of the safety industry.Multi-agent-based simulation provides such economic decision-making the experimental means.Focused on the choice of the mode and its realization,following studies are carried out:(1)Measurement of industry intensive developmentStarting with the connotation of industry intensive,measurement of industry intensive development is divided into three key elements,11 factors and 22 indicators.Then use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to calculate the intensity.In order to use the intensity in the simulation model,the industry-intensive algorithm is developed under the JAVA environment.(2)Multi-agent-based simulation model of the industryBased on the idea of multi-agent modeling,the industry intensive development model (IIDM) is established.Actions and their rules,together with related properties of the demand Agent are defined.So are the supply-agent,research-agent,government-agent and bank-agent. When goes to the industry base mode,a base-agent is added with the business action and coordination action.IIDM’s output is the industry intensity.Under the JAVA environment,by use of object-oriented design and programming,IIDM is developed as software based on the swarm platform.The software provides a simulation laboratory to the study of industry intensive.(3)Connotation and classification of the safety industry and its status in ChongqingAs the safety industry is a new research topic,the paper firstly defines its connotation. According to the attributes of production activities,the safety industry is divided into four major categories.According to the needs of management and the characteristics of production activities,the four major categories are divided into 19 categories,then 47 categories according to specific activities.On this basis,investigation is carried out to obtain the total amount of supply and demand and the cost and price of the representative products.(4)Argumentation that the base model is the realistic choice of Chongqing safety industryTaking the investigation and research as input data,using IIDM to simulate the evolution of industry intensity under the existing mode,the science and technology park mode and the industry base mode for 30 years(10,800 simulation time).The simulation results show that the intensity of the existing mode fluctuates around 61, the science and technology park mode 68,and the industry base mode 73.Statistics indicate that the mean value of the intensity increases from 61.49(the existing mode) to 73.09(the industry base mode),while standard error decreases to 1.56(the industry base mode) from 2.40(the existing mode).Therefore the industry base mode can significantly promote the intensive development of Chongqing safety industry.The dissertation has made a theoretical explore on how the industry base mode promotes industry intensity.(5)Several issues about construction of the Chongqing safety industry baseSeveral key issues,such as the functions,the location,the role of the government and the operation of the Chongqing safety industry base are discussed and countermeasures are given.更多还原